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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments

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Paul2 said:
@jhungary

I think facts from first days are solid enough to asses what Ukrainians did wrong militarily. Will you be glad to join in?
  1. No early mobilisation despite Americans keeping nailing them about it.
  2. Territorials only managed to form in Kiyv, West Ukraine. C&C broke down in other places, and where else they did manage to do anything it was like "weapons dumped on the ground, grab one if you want."
  3. Some of the military did get advanced warning, like aviation which went to road basic 1 hours before the attack, but for regular solders, and low-tier officers it was a shock, thus little preparedness, especially in the south.
  4. Own shambolic logistics problems. NLAWs from Kiyv arsenal being late to Karkiv by 5 days. Convoys sent in first days of the war to form territorials in the South, and Karkiv didn't reach before Russian encirclement.
  5. Lack of use of reserves from deep withing the country to initiate own new offensives.
  6. They moved too much resources deep into Kiyv, and doing nothing, while the small detached forces were already proving very good at destroying Russians in the surrounding countryside.
  7. Heavy weapons, artillery, MLRS moved to frontlines too late, and too little ammo despite them knowing that they will have to absorb thousands of units of armour.
  8. Precision weapons started lose oomph when Russians started simply pushing convoys with 100+ pieces of armour. Barakar will takeout 4 vehicles, but can't really break it because they have redundancy for ammo, fuel, and C&C.
  9. Raw firepower being disregarded, as stated above.
  10. Not rebasing their C&C, and intel centres in their majority despite knowing that Russians have had them marked.
  11. Not utilising NATO intel (if they really had it) to their fullest. There were many instances where OSInt brought to the public eye extremely valuable sitting duck targets which should've been traded for few remaining planes Ukraine had, like field logistics bases, parked helis, spotted comms units.
  12. Spent its tactical missiles on Russian airfields, when it was already clear that Russians are afraid to fly above Ukraine.
  13. Failed multiple times to retake the initiative in chokepoints after 27th, especially around Kiyv, when they had an opportunity to push the right to Chernobyl, which would've been the mother of all chokepoints.
  14. More or less the same in the South, but this more or less stems from low number of forces there.
  15. 28th was they last day they had the initiative, and they conceded it by switching on defensive too prematurely, while knowing that the enemy is staging, and regrouping

But this all pales to one big elephant in the room:

The worst mistake Ukrainians made was to elect a pacifist.
Click to expand...
1.) No Mobilisation on Convoy mostly because the drone and fighter run out of ammo. IT's a 6 days old war, US/EU only resupplying them 2 days ago, it's not surprise the Ukrainian had run out of bombs and missile.

2.) The Eastern State traditionally is not a strong supporter for the Ukrainian central government, also the difficulty to supply weapon to Eastern province. But despite that, unconfirm info suggest Kharkiv have form a 20,000 TDF,

3.) The south is open woodland, they aren't dense urban area like in the North, and the fact that Southern Urban cities (Mariupol and Odessa) has not yet fall means the progress is largely on the outskirt.

4.) Logistic is going to be a problem in the eastern city, as most of them are close to Russia border, making Russian interdiction easier.

5.) TDF are the reserve, they need to withhold regular troop on the West to hold down the West in order to get supplies in.

6.) Well, consider now 75% of the invasion force are mobilised, it will be hard to do hit and run, it would work in the early stage but not when they started to swing the number at you.

7.) At this point artillery are probably used as COUNTBAT, it would be wise to deploy it closer to Kyiv.

8.) At this point, precision strike are not going to be effective, as they started to mass their troop, in case you have not notice, there is a shift of Russian tactics, now they are more align to old Soviet style Armor Column attack, Precision Strike can be use to target Russian C&C and command structure, but nothing else. And even if they do, the sheer number will still dwarf them

9.) As I said before, now it's the traditional siege, they are going to thrust at Ukrainian defence with overwhelming number of Armor, at this point, you should reposition every available support fire to the rear, and absorb the first strike, then use artillery to mess up the second line.

10.) Don't think this is an Ukrainian C&C problem, this is what we called a static phase, basically Russia is going to come at Ukrainian with everything they got, sure, using support asset take out one or two unit here and there, you can do that, but it would not make any different as you are facing a giant head on assault, Tradition NATO playbook is hunker down, let the Amour rolled thru and then attack the infantry that followed with your unit and artillery support.

11.) I think they are now incapable to act on Intel, again, a combination of trying to preserve force and logistic issue..

12.) It wouldn't do much, as I said before, the Russian tried to disable Ukrainian airfield by launching missile on precision strike, we all know how that goes, and Russian have more advance missile.

13.) Well, as I said before, you can only do so much hit and run. once they are adapted to your strategy, you can't really do that anymore. Now it's way pass that, this is now a siege warfare. You need to be able to absorb damage now, which mean for Ukrainian, every unit counts

14.) That's Russian battleplan tho. The Russian south need to take both Dnipro and Mariupol and another Marine landing over at Odessa

15.) Russia changed their tactics since last night, no doubt, If Ukraine was smart, they should start resupplying the Kyiv. They can lose any city, but they can't lose Kyiv. Now this is going to turn into a siege warfare, which mean support, supply and troop have to be concentrated. I don't think there are anything Ukrainian can do but Hunker down and take the onslaught at this point,

Make no mistake, I still stand by my original assessment. Kyiv WILL fall, it's just the matter of time, this is not even a question, but what happened after Kyiv felt is shaping up, I can foresee a complete insurgency, that would ring headache for Russia,
 
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Meengla said:
Washington Post front page right now. Some highlighted parts.
I think the Russians have regrouped after learning from their initial debacles in this war. And one thing about Russia to note: They are far more likely to sacrifice their soldiers to achieve their objectives than Western countries; such a sad observation. Also, just as we thought a war like this was unthinkable in Europe again, a direct shooting war between Russia and the West is not out of question. I think Putin is in a different frame of mind right now--he can't be seen to have failed. Also, while there is the power of social media, it probably won't change what's being done on the ground. And lest some Pakistanis think otherwise, Pakistan is only one country away from Europe if you count countries to the north/west of Iran as part of Europe. A Balkanization of Russia will be felt to Pakistan eventually; I think the Chechens would want to breakaway in that case.

View attachment 819860
Click to expand...

I think things are really getting to a dangerous point because I feel like Putin and Russian nationalists feel like they are totally isolated from Europe in a way they have never experienced in their entire history. So many of the hardcore nationalists feel like they have nothing to lose now by fighting to regain influence in their backyard.
 
Western sources: Belarusian leader Lukashenko, "accidentally" revealed Russia's military action plan against Ukraine during his presentation to the security council.

Normally, such publications are made on purpose. However, considering that the subject of the news is Lukashenko, this claim may be true.

FMxrNaMXMAEnCLY
 
That Guy said:
I certainly ain't.

It's a white people war, I'm just glad they aren't killing brown people.

People taking sides here would be amusing, if it weren't for the fact that brown people are once again taking sides in a war that has nothing to do with them.

The chains of mental-slavery are hard to break, it seems.

@SQ8 @LeGenD @RescueRanger
Click to expand...

Phul support Saar brigade

You should see some of the Indians on social media, dear lord those people can be cringy

EhaZUwuWoAQFbwx.jpeg
 
dBSPL said:
Western sources: Belarusian leader Lukashenko, "accidentally" revealed Russia's military action plan against Ukraine during his presentation to the security council.

Normally, such publications are made on purpose. However, considering that the subject of the news is Lukashenko, this claim may be true.

FMxrNaMXMAEnCLY
Click to expand...
video
https://twitter.com/x/status/1498669166957670416
 
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