This is more or less consistent with what I was saying a week ago.
Anything besides the Izyum gap is of little importance on strategic outcome.
Russia keeps sending forces to be slaughtered piecemeal past Izyum is easy to explain:
The alternative to not losing 1 BTG every 2 days is Ukraine retaking the Izyum gap, and pouring into hilly terrain, and endangering Russian control of bridges across Oskil. That patch of serious hilly terrain continues to the Russian border. Fighting in hills will massively negate Russian advantage in armour, and multiply ATGMs' efficiency.
So they are afraid of Ukrainian force which is 50%-40% smaller, and poorer equipped in that part of the front from going after them.
This means their 25-20 BTGs east of Izyum gathered from last reserves, and previously beaten units may be weak to the point that they themselves are now on defensive.
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