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South Waziristan operation delayed

Janbaz

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WASHINGTON - The Pakistani military’s plan to go after the Taliban in South Waziristan is more than two months old but The Washington Post says it is yet to take off.
The delay is due to the huge humanitarian crisis resulting from the displacement of about 2 million people during the earlier campaign in the northwest’s Swat Valley.
The Post, quoting US and Pakistani officials, reported the military, already stretched thin, does not want to lower its guard against India in the east. It also is finding it difficult to isolate Pakistan Taliban chief Baitullah Mehsud.
Military analysts, cited by the Post, said they were worried that the campaign in the mountainous South Waziristan, believed to be a Taliban and Al-Qaeda stronghold, will get more difficult as cold weather approaches.
Talking to The Washington Post, Richard Holbrooke, US Special Envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan, told the Post the elimination of Mehsud was important. “However, the first imperative is to secure the areas the refugees are going back into,” he added.
Our Monitoring Desk adds: Holbrooke said Baitullah Mehsud, commander of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), is a dreadful man, and his elimination is an imperative.
Although Holbrooke said it could be beneficial to have simultaneous offensives — the US Marines on the Afghanistan side of the border and the Pakistan Army in the tribal regions to the east - the greater concern is unfinished business elsewhere. “Why would I push them to start an offensive when they have two million people they have to protect first?” Holbrooke said.
Part of the reason the Pakistani government is wary about launching the Waziristan operation is that there is little appetite to remove more troops from the 140,000-strong force that mans the eastern border with India. Two brigades have already left to join the Swat operation. “That leaves us very little,” a Pakistani intelligence official said.
American officials, however, said they have not urged Pakistan to launch the operation because of the scope of problems in the Swat Valley, where two million refugees were displaced by the ongoing military operation there.
American officials are concerned that the Pakistani military might not stay in Swat long enough to ensure residents’ safety. “Failing to hold in Swat would be a calamity,” said a US official in Pakistan, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “I hope they’re thinking about it in terms of a plan and not on a timetable.”

One Pakistani diplomat said American officials are not happy with the level of coordination involved in providing money and services to the returning refugees. “In their heart of hearts, I think they feel that Pakistan will mess up the repatriation,” the diplomat said. “They feel . . . probably they’ll go overboard, they won’t resettle them, and you’ll have a potential quicksand where you’ll breed another strand of terrorist resistance.”
Pakistani officials insist that they are focused on the refugees and that they do not want to rush into opening new fronts against the Taliban. Pakistan has already launched two operations into South Waziristan in recent years that failed to dislodge the Taliban.
“We would not like to do anything haphazardly. If you open so many fronts at the same time, then the danger is you will not achieve success on any front. So we would like to move with utmost circumspection,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Abdul Basit. The tribal areas are “a different ballgame and we need to understand how difficult it is.”
Al-Qaeda, meanwhile, has increased its focus on uniting the Taliban and other groups in the fight against Pakistan, betting its success on the survival of the Taliban, according to intelligence officials.
The initial stages of the South Waziristan operation have begun. Pakistani aircraft, along with unmanned American planes, have attacked Mehsud’s territory in recent weeks. Soldiers have deployed into neighbouring North Waziristan and have imposed an economic blockade, trying to withhold food and supplies from the Taliban, said a US defence official in Washington.
The official said Pakistan likely wants “to make sure they have everything working in their favour before they actually pull the trigger on a ground assault.”
“It’s the hardest nut to crack,” the official said. “There’s no doubt about that.”

South Waziristan operation delayed | Pakistan | News | Newspaper | Daily | English | Online
 
Better safe than sorry, i suppose.

Finish the menace when certain of success.
May God help our armymen!
 
This is how it works...

Pakistan did a lot of preparatory work before going into Swat.
 
You only start such an operation when you either have an exit strategy or some idea of how success can be defined. Otherwise you end up like the US in Vietnam or Pakistan in East Pakistan.
 
this is a good idea. first the refugees in swat need to be taken care. our success in swat needs to be certain. until and unless we have completely flushed swat from the crazies there is no reason to in SW. its not going away anywhere BM will still be there. i think thought that they should launch special operations raids just to harass the talibs and keep them guess on when we will actually attack.
 
Hasn't there just been three be-headings, a kidnapping and a murder in the last day or so in the Mingora area of SWAT?

Taliban Resume Attacks In SWAT- WSJ July 27, 2009

Let's not be overly ambitious or premature WRT attacking the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan. This is a long war and all indications are that the taliban recognize your IDP camps as a festering eyesore for your public's viewing.

These camps are a clear reminder to all, if you will, of the GoP's continuing failure to secure its own lands. Even should the taliban not regain full control, they at least lay claim to contesting the ground by these recent beheadings. Again, the streets may be safe by day but at night...?

Those images will severely retard the return of your IDPs. Accept the eyesore and cost now of these camps, plan accordingly, and prepare for hard work yet in places like Bajaur, SWAT, and Buner.
 
Hasn't there just been three be-headings, a kidnapping and a murder in the last day or so in the Mingora area of SWAT?

Taliban Resume Attacks In SWAT- WSJ July 27, 2009

Let's not be overly ambitious or premature WRT attacking the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan. This is a long war and all indications are that the taliban recognize your IDP camps as a festering eyesore for your public's viewing.

These camps are a clear reminder to all, if you will, of the GoP's continuing failure to secure its own lands. Even should the taliban not regain full control, they at least lay claim to contesting the ground by these recent beheadings. Again, the streets may be safe by day but at night...?

Those images will severely retard the return of your IDPs. Accept the eyesore and cost now of these camps, plan accordingly, and prepare for hard work yet in places like Bajaur, SWAT, and Buner.


What do you mean by "Islamic Emirate of Waziristan"?:angry:

FATA,SWAT shall remain part of Islamic Republic of Pakistan.NA and PA need to pass the shariah bill ASAP to avoid war:tsk:

I hope GoP shall resolve conflict politically . FATA tribes should support the peace deal between GOP and War Lords
 
"What do you mean by "Islamic Emirate of Waziristan":angry:

I mean that I don't believe it's currently part of Pakistan except on a map.

"FATA,SWAT shall remain part of Islamic Republic of Pakistan."

Your efforts to secure these lands will determine such. Nothing else, least of all pontifications here.
 
Hasn't there just been three be-headings, a kidnapping and a murder in the last day or so in the Mingora area of SWAT?

Taliban Resume Attacks In SWAT- WSJ July 27, 2009

Let's not be overly ambitious or premature WRT attacking the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan. This is a long war and all indications are that the taliban recognize your IDP camps as a festering eyesore for your public's viewing.

These camps are a clear reminder to all, if you will, of the GoP's continuing failure to secure its own lands. Even should the taliban not regain full control, they at least lay claim to contesting the ground by these recent beheadings. Again, the streets may be safe by day but at night...?

Those images will severely retard the return of your IDPs. Accept the eyesore and cost now of these camps, plan accordingly, and prepare for hard work yet in places like Bajaur, SWAT, and Buner.

I think we all know that the talibs are going to try again and again to go after Malakand div. This is not surprising. What is surprising that weeks after there promise to come back to Swat, their has still not been any major taliban push back into Swat. They are still hiding out in mountains and getting killed on daily basis. In the WSJ story itself, it mentions that the 4 talib kidnappers dressed in uniforms were killed within hours of their kidnapping. That means that the local intel network with the help of lashkars being set up is working so far. Come winter, the talibs will have to either freeze to death in the mountains or come down and be slaughtered. I bet the low level talib fighters are hiding more of fear of reprisals (badal) from locals than anything else.

In either case, prospect for local support for taliban in most of malakand does not seem good.
 
"In either case, prospect for local support for taliban in most of malakand does not seem good."

We'll see how true that rings if your citizens are re-settled before winter. Until then, lashkars working well or otherwise, the IDP camps will know of these beheadings and it will unquestionably influence the decisions of those considering returning now or in the very near future.

A great many people will need to return, resettle, and establish themselves as they once lived for some time before this memory erodes sufficient to feel secure. Only then will the threat recede. To date, the taliban have shown a remarkable adaptability to meet changing circumstances. Just as they appear to have retreated into the background of Helmand, so too perhaps here.

Good luck and take it slow in SWAT. "Thorough" is a good thing.
 
"In either case, prospect for local support for taliban in most of malakand does not seem good."

We'll see how true that rings if your citizens are re-settled before winter. Until then, lashkars working well or otherwise, the IDP camps will know of these beheadings and it will unquestionably influence the decisions of those considering returning now or in the very near future.

A great many people will need to return, resettle, and establish themselves as they once lived for some time before this memory erodes sufficient to feel secure. Only then will the threat recede. To date, the taliban have shown a remarkable adaptability to meet changing circumstances. Just as they appear to have retreated into the background of Helmand, so too perhaps here.

Good luck and take it slow in SWAT. "Thorough" is a good thing.
Agreed. IDP return and the civilian governments ability to manage things will be the real test. And there is no doubt this process will be anything but smooth, considering pakistan's past history with it's bureaucratic setup.
 
"...this process will be anything but smooth, considering pakistan's past history with it's bureaucratic setup."

All the more reason why your western and Baluchi areas must wait for the time being.

SWAT/Buner/Bajaur are a microcosm of what you can expect, in spades, in your west. It is their final redoubt and I'm sure they'll have some real surprises. The lessons learned now in SWAT, etc. will pay huge dividends later.
 
"What do you mean by "Islamic Emirate of Waziristan":angry:

I mean that I don't believe it's currently part of Pakistan except on a map.

Sir,

The above statement is very new to me can you explain a bit more ?
 
"What do you mean by "Islamic Emirate of Waziristan":angry:

I mean that I don't believe it's currently part of Pakistan except on a map.

"FATA,SWAT shall remain part of Islamic Republic of Pakistan."

Your efforts to secure these lands will determine such. Nothing else, least of all pontifications here.

Try to understand , we can capture whole FATA with force within few weeks but could we suceed to gain the strategic victory .GOP/PA should not repeat the mistakes of ISAF in FATA.
 
there is a tactical pause - nothing else!
pls dont read much into the rumours of "peace deals" - the army, the govt and the people have moved beyond that.
BM is going to be eliminated !!!
 

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