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Taliban 'poised to retake Afghanistan' after Nato pullout

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KABUL: A secret US military report says that the Taliban, backed by Pakistan, are set to retake control over Afghanistan after Nato-led forces withdraw from the country, The Times newspaper reported on Wednesday.

Lt Col Jimmie Cummings, a spokesman for the Nato-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), confirmed the document's existence but said it was not a strategic study of operations.

"The classified document in question is a compilation of Taliban detainee opinions," he said. "It's not an analysis, nor is it meant to be considered an analysis."

Nevertheless, it could be interpreted as a damning assessment of the war, now dragging into its eleventh year and aimed at blocking a Taliban return to power, or possibly an admission of defeat.

It could also reinforce the view of Taliban hardliners that the group should not negotiate peace with the United States and President Hamid Karzai's unpopular government while in a position of strength.

The document cited by Britain's The Times said that Pakistan's powerful security agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), was assisting the Taliban in directing attacks against foreign forces.

The allegations drew a strong response from Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Abdul Basit. "This is frivolous, to put it mildly," he told Reuters. "We are committed to non-interference in Afghanistan."

The Times said the "highly classified" report was put together by the U.S. military at Bagram air base in Afghanistan for top Nato officers last month. The BBC also carried a report on the leaked document.

Large swathes of Afghanistan have already been handed back to Afghan security forces, with the last foreign combat troops due to leave by the end of 2014.

But many Afghans doubt their army, security forces or police will be able to take firm control of one of the world's most volatile countries once foreign combat troops leave.

The U.S. embassy in Kabul declined to comment on the report.

The accusations will likely further strain ties between Western powers and Islamabad, which has long denied backing militant groups seeking to topple the U.S.-backed government in Kabul.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar was visiting Kabul on Wednesday on a mission to repair strained diplomatic ties with Afghanistan's government and to meet Karzai to discuss possible peace talks with the Taliban.

TURBULENT HISTORY

Pakistan is currently reviewing ties with the United States which have suffered a series of setbacks since a unilateral U.S. raid that killed Osama bin Laden on Pakistani soil in May last year humiliated Pakistan's powerful generals.

A November 26 cross-border Nato air attack that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers deepened the crisis, prompting Islamabad to suspend supply routes to Nato forces in Afghanistan.

Pakistan is seen as critical to U.S. efforts to stabilise Afghanistan, a feat one foreign power after another has failed to accomplish over the country's turbulent history.

Islamabad has resisted US pressure to go after insurgent groups like the Taliban and the Haqqani network, and argues Washington's approach overlooks complex realities on the ground.

Pakistan says Washington should attempt to bring all militant groups into the peace process and fears a 2014 combat troop exit could be hasty, plunging the region into the kind of chaos seen after the Soviet exit in 1989.

"They (the Taliban) don't need any backing. Everybody knows that after 10 years, they (Nato) have not been able to control a single province in Afghanistan because of the wrong policies they have been following," Pakistani SeNator Tariq Azim, a member of the Senate's Defence Committee, told Reuters.

Pentagon spokesman George Little said: "We have long been concerned about ties between elements of the ISI and some extremist networks."

Little said U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta "has also been clear that he believes that the safe havens in Pakistan remain a serious problem and need to be addressed by Pakistani authorities".

The document's findings were based on interrogations of more than 4,000 Taliban and al Qaeda detainees, the Times said, adding that it identified only few individual insurgents.

A state department spokesman and Britain's Foreign Office both declined comment on the report.

Despite the presence of about 100,000 foreign troops, violence in Afghanistan is at its worst since the Taliban were ousted by U.S.-backed Afghan forces in 2001, according to the United Nations.

The Taliban announced this month they would open a political office in the Qatari capital Doha to support possible peace talks with the United States.

But there has also been talk of efforts to hold separate talks in Saudi Arabia because Karzai fears his government could be sidelined by US. talks with the Taliban.

The report could boost the Taliban's confidence and make its leaders less willing to make concessions on key US demands for a ceasefire and for the insurgency to renounce violence and break all ties to al-Qaida.

Hoping to gain credibility with a population still haunted by memories of the Taliban's harsh rule from 1996-2001, the group has tried to improve its image as its fighters battle Nato and Afghan forces.

The Times said the document suggested the Taliban were gaining in popularity partly because the austere Islamist movement was becoming more tolerant.

"It remains to be seen whether a revitalised, more progressive Taliban will endure if they continue to gain power and popularity," it quoted the report as saying.

"Regardless, at least within the Taliban, the refurbished image is already having a positive effect on morale."

Prominent Pakistani security analyst Imtiaz Gul described the report as alarmist, saying Afghan security forces backed by the international community would resist any Taliban takeover.

"This is simply preposterous to propagate this theory," he said.
 
Kabul, Afghanistan (CNN) -- The Taliban in Afghanistan depend on Pakistan for support, even though they do not necessarily welcome it, a secret NATO report says, according to a journalist who has read it.

"It is a marriage of convenience," Times of London reporter Jerome Starkey said Wednesday, citing the report. The Taliban see Pakistan as manipulative, but they see no alternative to accepting its support, he said.

The Taliban are absolutely confident of victory, he said the report found, based on 27,000 interviews with over 4,000 detainees ranging from senior Taliban commanders to Afghan civilians.

They also include mid- and low-level Taliban, al Qaeda, and foreign fighters, he said.

The leaked NATO document revives the longstanding accusation that elements in Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence agency are aiding the insurgency in Afghanistan.

It says the ISI knows the whereabouts of all senior Taliban commanders, Starkey said.
Pakistan denies helping the Taliban
Pakistan denies NATO report claims
Progress in Afghan peace talks

NATO downplayed the importance of the report Wednesday, after it was leaked, while Pakistan rejected key conclusions entirely.

CNN has not seen the document.

A spokesman for NATO's International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan said Wednesday not to read too much into it.

The classified report is based on the "opinions or ideals" of Taliban detainees -- and represented only their opinions, not the actual progress of NATO against the Taliban, Lt. Col. Jimmie E. Cummings said.

He said it was "extremely important not to draw conclusions based on Taliban comments or musings" and that the report "should not be used as any interpretation of campaign progress" against the insurgency.

Pakistan firmly dismissed the accusation it was helping the Taliban across the border.

"We are committed to non-interference in Afghanistan," Pakistan Foreign Office spokesman Abdul Basit said Wednesday.

"This is frivolous, to put it mildly," Basit said.

"Pakistan has suffered enormously because of the long conflict in Afghanistan. A stable and peaceful Afghanistan is in our own interest and we are very much cognizant of this," he said.

The alleged contents of the report would be consistent with international concerns that elements within Pakistan's powerful ISI agency are helping the Taliban in Afghanistan.

The U.S. intelligence community said Tuesday that Afghanistan's insurgents remain "resilient" and senior Taliban leaders "enjoy safe haven in Pakistan."

The annual threat assessment compiled by all the various American intelligence agencies said Taliban-led insurgents have "lost ground in some areas," but mainly where NATO-led "surge forces are concentrated."

A U.S. official told CNN the ISAF report included a summary of comments from "some of the most motivated and ruthless insurgents that are trying to boost insurgent morale."

"Some of the stuff there you couldn't even deem 'intel.' It's just comments," said the official, referring to intelligence.

Starkey, the Times journalist, said the report said it should be treated as informational and not necessarily analytical.

The official described the report as "relatively new" and "an internal document for our use that's not meant to be distributed."

The official emphasized that it did not represent the opinions of ISAF.

The official is not authorized to discuss contents of the report on the record with the media and asked not to be named.

The official declined to say whether the report was seen by top NATO commanders, including the ISAF commander, Gen. John Allen, or whether it was written by military or civilian ISAF personnel.

The leak comes as Afghan President Hamid Karzai's government appears to be moving slowly towards talks with the Taliban.

Karzai's government recently dropped its opposition to the Taliban establishing an office in the Gulf state of Qatar to facilitate talks.

And it may be opening a separate channel to talk to the insurgency.

The Afghan government hopes to hold talks with Taliban representatives in Saudi Arabia in the coming weeks, a senior Afghan official said Tuesday, in a move that threatens to cloud already fragile steps to negotiate an end to the United States' longest war.

The senior official, speaking anonymously as he was discussing sensitive diplomatic issues, said there were plans for a meeting between insurgents and Afghan officials in Saudi Arabia. Yet, he added, the plans were at such an early stage that it was not clear who -- including American officials -- would attend or when any talks would be held.

The United States has acknowledged that it has held discussions about the opening of a Taliban office in Doha, Qatar, as well as the possibility of transferring some Taliban prisoners held at Guantanamo Bay as part of American support for Afghan reconciliation efforts.
 
KABUL: A secret US military report says that the Taliban, backed by Pakistan, are set to retake control over Afghanistan after Nato-led forces withdraw from the country, The Times newspaper reported on Wednesday.

Are these the same Taliban Pakistan army is fighting against in the tribal areas? If they are good for Afghanistan then they should be good for Pakistan as well. If these illiterate and irrational votaries of Islam ever manage to take over the reign of Afghanistan again, they will bring the country back in the 7th century within few days, and whatever little peace and prosperity the poor Afghans are enjoying will be lost again. Their rigorous laws will make the life for ordinary Afghan men and women unbearable, lynching and stoning for petty crimes will be a norm again, women will be confined within the walls of their houses and education and equal rights for girls will be made impossible. The biggest victim will be Afghan women and young girls. May God help the poor and hapless people of Afghanistan.
 
As expected

Afghanistan is actually another vietnam for USA bt sadly the Afghan present govt in reality is USA elected govt
 
Are these the same Taliban Pakistan army is fighting against in the tribal areas? If they are good for Afghanistan then they should be good for Pakistan as well. If these illiterate and irrational votaries of Islam ever manage to take over the reign of Afghanistan again, they will bring the country back in the 7th century within few days, and whatever little peace and prosperity the poor Afghans are enjoying will be lost again. Their rigorous laws will make the life for ordinary Afghan men and women unbearable, lynching and stoning for petty crimes will be a norm again, women will be confined within the walls of their houses and education and equal rights for girls will be made impossible. The biggest victim will be Afghan women and young girls. May God help the poor and hapless people of Afghanistan.

You forgot to mention how much such a result for Afghanistan will strengthen the Pakistani Taliban as well .

Victory of Taliban in Afghanistan will be half the war won for Taliban in Pakistan .
 
Are these the same Taliban Pakistan army is fighting against in the tribal areas? If they are good for Afghanistan then they should be good for Pakistan as well. If these illiterate and irrational votaries of Islam ever manage to take over the reign of Afghanistan again, they will bring the country back in the 7th century within few days, and whatever little peace and prosperity the poor Afghans are enjoying will be lost again. Their rigorous laws will make the life for ordinary Afghan men and women unbearable, lynching and stoning for petty crimes will be a norm again, women will be confined within the walls of their houses and education and equal rights for girls will be made impossible. The biggest victim will be Afghan women and young girls. May God help the poor and hapless people of Afghanistan.

This will also be followed by increased persecution of Hazara Shias.
 
You forgot to mention how much such a result for Afghanistan will strengthen the Pakistani Taliban as well .

Victory of Taliban in Afghanistan will be half the war won for Taliban in Pakistan .

Bwhaha. Afghan Taliban has admitted many times that they don't support nor have any links with Pakistan Taliban.
 
You forgot to mention how much such a result for Afghanistan will strengthen the Pakistani Taliban as well .

Victory of Taliban in Afghanistan will be half the war won for Taliban in Pakistan .

You don't understand the mentality of those sitting in air-conditioned GHQ, they are far moer stupid then you can ever imagine. We understand the fatal consequences very well. The TTP may get stronger, number of suicide attacks may increase dramatically, more civilians may get killed, the economy may go down the drain completely, but this all would be a "very" small price for a much bigger cause, Kabul should not have friendly relations with Inida.
 
My o my after all the billions spent by the US and the orchestrated puppet govt of muppets in Afghanistan - this is the result? Dear o dear - they could have given me and Razpak a tenth of the money and we could have given them the same result and saved them loads of Americans losing their lives........
 
Bwhaha. Afghan Taliban has admitted many times that they don't support nor have any links with Pakistan Taliban.

Ya listen to the terrorists now . Not that you guys have any options left .

When radicalism increases in your neighbourhood it affects your country as well . Let it happen then we will see . I for one dont believe the Taliban will win in Afghanistan . The Americans will be back within days if it happens .
 
Bwhaha. Afghan Taliban has admitted many times that they don't support nor have any links with Pakistan Taliban.

TTP will have their long term moral boosted by the thoughts that if superpower Americans can be defeated in Afghanistan, same can be done in Pakistan. They may lead to more violence and unstablity in Pakistan. Both follow same ideology and same level of violent methods.
 

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