The U.S.-Pakistan F-16 fiasco

[ajtr]

I think I should mention this before uninformed readers jump the gun. Fair is perhaps the most pro-Pakistan academic in Washington and a true friend of the country. Hence, no need for ad hominem attacks or large statements on personal allegiances. Let's keep the thread clean and debate the merits of her arguments.

Chritine C.Fair Pro -pakistan...come on.isnt she the one who in one of her article in forign policy last year said that pakistanis are incessant liars or something to the effect .

I beg to disagree with the assertion that Christine Fair is pro-Pakistan. She is pro-American and pursues a pro-American position, and that typically includes excuses for American policy decisions with respect to Pakistan while bashing Pakistan. The tone of a majority of her articles is anti-Pakistan.

True .best way to describe Christine C.Fair as --"Bin painde ka lota"(someone who changes party quickly and abruptly to suit his needs)

 

[H2O3C4Nitrogen]

Wao , never came across such thing ... sparklingway , you never cease to amaze me, Thank you...!

 

[Tang0]

Personally, I never understood the whole "we feel betrayed" argument. The US looks out for its' interests, while Pakistan looks out for its' own. The US executive branch decided to ignore Pakistan's weapons program (Despite a congressional mandate not to) just long enough to achieve its short term goals in Afghanistan. After which, the executive branch was no longer able to justify the continued fiction to congress, and by extension, the US populace. Any notion that a secular western democracy is a "Friend or Ally" of a Islamic military dictatorship backed by a semi-feudal kleptocratic civil government is laughable. Their final view of what the world should look like is just too divergent to ever be compatible in the long run. It is like the story of a gypsy falling in love with a king, makes a nice fairy tale, but all that would really come of it is bastard children.

Does that make US foreign policy duplicitous? Not really. US foreign policy is not monolithic in the sense that it is directed by one agency or polity over long periods of time. Each administration does as it will, and the US public is a fickle beast with only a short attention span for any one of the hundreds of foreign policy brush fires burning across the world at any given moment. (China, Sudan, Israel, Egypt, Japan, Mexico, Vietnam, any one of a dozen Latin American countries....) If the government of Pakistan came into the agreements they made with anything more than the notion that "The enemy of my enemy is my friend...." then they were simply being naive.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Personally, I never understood the whole "we feel betrayed" argument. The US looks out for its' interests, while Pakistan looks out for its' own. The US executive branch decided to ignore Pakistan's weapons program (Despite a congressional mandate not to) just long enough to achieve its short term goals in Afghanistan. After which, the executive branch was no longer able to justify the continued fiction to congress, and by extension, the US populace. Any notion that a secular western democracy is a "Friend or Ally" of a Islamic military dictatorship backed by a semi-feudal kleptocratic civil government is laughable. Their final view of what the world should look like is just too divergent to ever be compatible in the long run. It is like the story of a gypsy falling in love with a king, makes a nice fairy tale, but all that would really come of it is bastard children.

Does that make US foreign policy duplicitous? Not really. US foreign policy is not monolithic in the sense that it is directed by one agency or polity over long periods of time. Each administration does as it will, and the US public is a fickle beast with only a short attention span for any one of the hundreds of foreign policy brush fires burning across the world at any given moment. (China, Sudan, Israel, Egypt, Japan, Mexico, Vietnam, any one of a dozen Latin American countries....) If the government of Pakistan came into the agreements they made with anything more than the notion that "The enemy of my enemy is my friend...." then they were simply being naive.

While Pakistan may have been naive in trusting the US, what the US did was still a betrayal - you can couch it as real politik or whatever, but the point remains that the US betrayed Pakistan, and Pakistan has no reason to trust the US currently.

If anything, your argument justifies Pakistan's policies of hedging its bets WRT Afghanistan, a position vilified by many in your government, media and intelligentsia.

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

For young pakistanis---this is a very important thread---read it---but don't think---read and absorb without thinking and reasoning---.

Read what most analysysts say about paks F 16 deal--99.9% say that pak screwed up---.01 % say they didnot---and pak and pakistanis still believe in the .01%---.

Do you people understand what that signifies---righteousness and arrogance and a lack of learning and understanding---even after 20 years most of you have not learmnt the lesson yet---the you were at fault---. You had no clue about the legal backings of the sanctions---you had no clue what your legal rights were in the U S courts---. Instead of understanding the U S legal system and its inherent take charge position and condition regarding breach of contract / paym,ents made in good faith ---you wanted to believe in the generals at pentagon---being generals yourselves---you were more comfortable with what the generals said---.

Kids---your pakistani parents mislead you about the the F 16 deal just to hide their lack of knowledge----don't fall into the same trap that your parents---be intelligent---think intelligent---don't make the mistakes of your parents---and don't be belligerent.

 

[H2O3C4Nitrogen]

Hi,

For young pakistanis---this is a very important thread---read it---but don't think---read and absorb without thinking and reasoning---.

Read what most analysysts say about paks F 16 deal--99.9% say that pak screwed up---.01 % say they didnot---and pak and pakistanis still believe in the .01%---.

Do you people understand what that signifies---righteousness and arrogance and a lack of learning and understanding---even after 20 years most of you have not learmnt the lesson yet---the you were at fault---. You had no clue about the legal backings of the sanctions---you had no clue what your legal rights were in the U S courts---. Instead of understanding the U S legal system and its inherent take charge position and condition regarding breach of contract / paym,ents made in good faith ---you wanted to believe in the generals at pentagon---being generals yourselves---you were more comfortable with what the generals said---.

Kids---your pakistani parents mislead you about the the F 16 deal just to hide their lack of knowledge----don't fall into the same trap that your parents---be intelligent---think intelligent---don't make the mistakes of your parents---and don't be belligerent.

I believe this , But it was a necessary and and calculated gambel to screw the f-16 deal to pursue the nukes. A strategic decision which did payed off later down the road in averting almost three major wars with india and bringing stability to south asia in minor and Asia on the whole to some extent .

And yes people are indeed mislead , but things are debatable as much of the info is still held safe in closed files beyond the reach of ordinary people. And Yes Pakistan now is on a better path to set its troubled ties with the US which IMO should not be derailed over petty issues from both sides...!!!

 

[Aamir Hussain]

Guys no one gives aid for free -- there is always a quid pro quo attached to it. Even our Chinese brothers are the same way but a lot more suave (Saving Face -- the Asian/oriental way) in doing it. They have along term commitment in this area as they live in it. US has relatively shorter term goals in the region.

There is nothing wrong with it. However, our Politicians and quasi politicians (generals) have blamed others for their own near sighted policies and debacles. This is also not new.

Pakistan needs to learn to play this game of use and get used -- India does it very well. The trick is to come out on the top in the this trade. We have yet to master it.

The logical power bases in the region are Russia, China and now India. We need to cultivate the right kind of relationship with the first two for obvious reasons. There is a growing window of opportunity because of the warming relations between India and US.

We have had some success with China but the glass is also half empty vis a vis China. China has also been extremely frugal when dealing with Pakistan on a lot of counts. This WoT is also in the greater interest of China but it has very little contribution in supporting Pakistan through economic support now or the previous government.

There have been reports of delivery of substandard plant and equipment in the commercial sector. Railway carriages, engines, Cranes in Gawader, Fauji Cement Plants, Telecom Equipment etc. This where there was really no quid pro quo.

However, when it comes to delivery of defense equipment specially for the Air Force and the Army, we see a different approach -- relatively better equipment is supplied (Not the top of the line) since Pakistan was a real contributor in terms of upgrade on both the warplanes and AFV's through sharing of their experience.

This is not bad but just good business sense. I am afraid we are naive in thinking that countries help each other out because of brotherly love!!!

US has been consistently short sighted in dealing with Asia as a whole -- this is a carry on from the days right after world war two. The lynch pin of their Asian presence have always been Japan and Korea -- the rest of the countries in the region are an enigma to them. The diplomatic corps. in US is just unable to understand and fathom the complexities of dealing with the "Asian" mind set.

They have had various love affairs with Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Vietnam, even China, but nothing long term has come out of these engagements. Now they are dabbling their finger in the Indian pool -- let us who uses whom there. Knowing a little bit about the Indian mindset, I have a hunch that US would end up holding the short end of the stick.

Bottom line -- we need to learn how to play this game quickly and know when to let go of lost cause and move on to the new one. The world is constantly changing; we need to change as well from the 1948 resolutions, the end of cold war era to the post 9/11 reality and the Indian influence in the region.

My 2C!!!

 

[Mani2020]

Hi,

For young pakistanis---this is a very important thread---read it---but don't think---read and absorb without thinking and reasoning---.

Read what most analysysts say about paks F 16 deal--99.9% say that pak screwed up---.01 % say they didnot---and pak and pakistanis still believe in the .01%---.

Do you people understand what that signifies---righteousness and arrogance and a lack of learning and understanding---even after 20 years most of you have not learmnt the lesson yet---the you were at fault---. You had no clue about the legal backings of the sanctions---you had no clue what your legal rights were in the U S courts---. Instead of understanding the U S legal system and its inherent take charge position and condition regarding breach of contract / paym,ents made in good faith ---you wanted to believe in the generals at pentagon---being generals yourselves---you were more comfortable with what the generals said---.

Kids---your pakistani parents mislead you about the the F 16 deal just to hide their lack of knowledge----don't fall into the same trap that your parents---be intelligent---think intelligent---don't make the mistakes of your parents---and don't be belligerent.

We have screwed up many things in past ,now its time for us to get screwed .next time we better think before getting screwed

 

[r3alist]

You know what's really annoying is how the Americans consistently remove the human factor from their analysis of what constitutes help in aid. Twice in recent times have we let our land and people be launchpads for American interests and American policies, tell me, can you really put a price on the human cost, how does one put this into their balance sheet, I'll really like to know the answer to that.



What the Americans try to convince us off, rather cleverly is that their interests are what are our interests, in reality they deny us the right, the sovereign right, to determine our own threat perceptions.


Therefore, I would like to play devil's advocate, I would like to ask "do the Americans have an incentive to create a situation where we follow their solutions for this mess, and not our own."



I would argue yes, they do have an incentive to create a scenario where they could enforce their own will.

I believe this is called using Leverage.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Hi,

For young pakistanis---this is a very important thread---read it---but don't think---read and absorb without thinking and reasoning---.

Read what most analysysts say about paks F 16 deal--99.9% say that pak screwed up---.01 % say they didnot---and pak and pakistanis still believe in the .01%---.

Do you people understand what that signifies---righteousness and arrogance and a lack of learning and understanding---even after 20 years most of you have not learmnt the lesson yet---the you were at fault---. You had no clue about the legal backings of the sanctions---you had no clue what your legal rights were in the U S courts---. Instead of understanding the U S legal system and its inherent take charge position and condition regarding breach of contract / paym,ents made in good faith ---you wanted to believe in the generals at pentagon---being generals yourselves---you were more comfortable with what the generals said---.

Kids---your pakistani parents mislead you about the the F 16 deal just to hide their lack of knowledge----don't fall into the same trap that your parents---be intelligent---think intelligent---don't make the mistakes of your parents---and don't be belligerent.

There is nothing to back up the argument that Pakistan was merely functioning on the Pentagon's 'say so'. Pakistan's nuclear program was well known to the US before sanctions were applied, and it was the civilian US administration that provided certifications in favor of Pakistan, when they needed Pakistan to shed blood and money and use its land against the Soviets, despite knowing about Pakistan's nuclear program.

Did the civilian US administration make clear to Pakistan, during negotiations for the F-16 deal, that it would not go through unless Pakistan cancelled its program? Why even agree to the F-16 deal if the US was aware of Pakistan's nuclear program? It was approved by US civilian leadership, not the Pentagon alone.

The lesson from this fiasco, as Tang0 pointed out well, is simply that Pakistan cannot ever trust the US, and must first and foremost watch out for its own interests, whether it be Afghanistan or the FMCT.

The problem is that at the end of the day, when all is said and done, US policies towards Pakistan then still constitute a betrayal and abandonment - the US simply cannot be considered a trustworthy ally and friend given what happened.Fair and some others here are almost arguing that it was Pakistan's fault for trusting the US - absolutely, I agree with that.

Pakistans fault was a perhaps naive trust and faith in the US as an ally and friend, the US fault was of betraying and abandoning that trust and alliance.

 

[notorious_eagle]

Hi,

For young pakistanis---this is a very important thread---read it---but don't think---read and absorb without thinking and reasoning---.

Read what most analysysts say about paks F 16 deal--99.9% say that pak screwed up---.01 % say they didnot---and pak and pakistanis still believe in the .01%---.

Do you people understand what that signifies---righteousness and arrogance and a lack of learning and understanding---even after 20 years most of you have not learmnt the lesson yet---the you were at fault---. You had no clue about the legal backings of the sanctions---you had no clue what your legal rights were in the U S courts---. Instead of understanding the U S legal system and its inherent take charge position and condition regarding breach of contract / paym,ents made in good faith ---you wanted to believe in the generals at pentagon---being generals yourselves---you were more comfortable with what the generals said---.

Kids---your pakistani parents mislead you about the the F 16 deal just to hide their lack of knowledge----don't fall into the same trap that your parents---be intelligent---think intelligent---don't make the mistakes of your parents---and don't be belligerent.

Indeed, so do you think Pakistan is well within its rights to pursue its interests in Afghanistan?

 

[huzihaidao12]

Guys no one gives aid for free -- there is always a quid pro quo attached to it. Even our Chinese brothers are the same way but a lot more suave (Saving Face -- the Asian/oriental way) in doing it. They have along term commitment in this area as they live in it. US has relatively shorter term goals in the region.

There is nothing wrong with it. However, our Politicians and quasi politicians (generals) have blamed others for their own near sighted policies and debacles. This is also not new.

Pakistan needs to learn to play this game of use and get used -- India does it very well. The trick is to come out on the top in the this trade. We have yet to master it.

The logical power bases in the region are Russia, China and now India. We need to cultivate the right kind of relationship with the first two for obvious reasons. There is a growing window of opportunity because of the warming relations between India and US.

We have had some success with China but the glass is also half empty vis a vis China. China has also been extremely frugal when dealing with Pakistan on a lot of counts. This WoT is also in the greater interest of China but it has very little contribution in supporting Pakistan through economic support now or the previous government.

There have been reports of delivery of substandard plant and equipment in the commercial sector. Railway carriages, engines, Cranes in Gawader, Fauji Cement Plants, Telecom Equipment etc. This where there was really no quid pro quo.

However, when it comes to delivery of defense equipment specially for the Air Force and the Army, we see a different approach -- relatively better equipment is supplied (Not the top of the line) since Pakistan was a real contributor in terms of upgrade on both the warplanes and AFV's through sharing of their experience.

This is not bad but just good business sense. I am afraid we are naive in thinking that countries help each other out because of brotherly love!!!

US has been consistently short sighted in dealing with Asia as a whole -- this is a carry on from the days right after world war two. The lynch pin of their Asian presence have always been Japan and Korea -- the rest of the countries in the region are an enigma to them. The diplomatic corps. in US is just unable to understand and fathom the complexities of dealing with the "Asian" mind set.

They have had various love affairs with Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Vietnam, even China, but nothing long term has come out of these engagements. Now they are dabbling their finger in the Indian pool -- let us who uses whom there. Knowing a little bit about the Indian mindset, I have a hunch that US would end up holding the short end of the stick.

Bottom line -- we need to learn how to play this game quickly and know when to let go of lost cause and move on to the new one. The world is constantly changing; we need to change as well from the 1948 resolutions, the end of cold war era to the post 9/11 reality and the Indian influence in the region.

My 2C!!!

Thank you for you and other friends of Pakistan. Your frank and open some of our differences, I think that is very good. If we can not open and frank discussion of our differences, our relationship will be a major worry. China and Pakistan have extensive common interests, as interest he is enough for us, I do not worry about interest, but unwarranted suspicion and hidden discontent may ruin our relationship. The Chinese government has a carefully our differences in public, so in fact, as the Chinese, most do not understand it, I hope the Chinese and Pakistanis, as friends and brothers, to have a more open dialogue, because our relations will be more comprehensive and closer in the future. Simple look-out just need a simple feeling, but it is already not enough for the present and future. Let us together with some of our differences to come together. Just remember, the Chinese people love Pakistan, which is not false, the Chinese people are willing and Pakistan to develop a stable and deep friendship, which is not false.

Again, appreciate your candor.

 

[SekrutYakhni]

Mastan K---Love your posts!

 

[SekrutYakhni]

"let us who uses whom there. Knowing a little bit about the Indian mindset, I have a hunch that US would end up holding the short end of the stick."

Aamir Hussain sahab--The U.S. found another sleeping partner like Israel i.e. India. Considering the past track record, the U.S. always ended up in a short term relationship but India is a different game. Pakistan can jump through the window to catch Russians which will certainly help us in Afghanistan and---

Trust me on that--American investors will flood Indian markets. That relationship is real---concerns on both sides--both will use each other--However, the same strategic depth applies to India as it does to Israel.

 

[jha]

Very good thread..one of the best..
Regarding India and US holding the shorter end of stick, i can only wish " if indian politicians were that good.."