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Whither India-Russia relations?
A Russian TV channel screens a Hindi movie every Friday night complete with dubbing or subtitles. And Bollywood song and dance routines are a hit with Russian teenagers.
But there are other undercurrents. Seven of us - all Indians - boarded the Krasnaya Strella night train to Moscow from St Petersburg. One of the attendants on the train was overheard remarking: the Indians have taken over the train! The observation sounded racist to some of us although it may not have been so intended. We experienced no overt display of racism in the streets, on the contrary people were cooperative once they understood our requirement conveyed in bad Russian.
That said, there's no doubt that despite broad support at the highest levels of government in both capitals, the India-Russia relationship is adrift, with virtually no backing from a largely indifferent mid level bureaucracy. There are no big ideas, no multi-billion dollar trade figures comparable to say India and China. (The nuclear trade looks uncertain at this point given international strictures and opposition from within India to nuclear plants).
The impact is most visible in defence, seen as the pillar of the relationship. The rejection of the MiG-35 fighter in the early stages of India's MMRCA competition has left many Russians feeling slighted. Delhi's choice of the American C-17 cargo aircraft has left others incredulous: "You are ready to pay $4 billion for 10 aircraft, which means each aircraft costs $500 million. And you still say the Russian Il-78 cargo aircraft is expensive even though it costs much less. That's politics."
The Russians realise the market they've dominated for three decades is coming to an end. It's visible in the empty order books of Russian naval shipyards once the last line of Talwar class frigates are delivered in the next few years.
The Russians are hoping to win the order for six conventional submarines to be built in India under technology transfer, but they know there will be competition. They've already signed up with the Spanish submarine maker Navantia. They're exploring other options, for instance, a high speed patrol boat for the Navy and Coast Guard called the Mangust. It's faster than any patrol boat presently in the navy's inventory. They are also pushing helicopters which every Indian air force and naval pilot acknowledges are rugged and reliable.
But many sections of the Indian military have been driven to frustration by Russia's bureaucracy, the delay in supply of spares, and the lack of timely maintenance support. Indian procedures are also to blame. There seems to be little forward thinking, almost no systematic approach to procurement and unfortunately, no lack of money!
Given the size of the Indian gravy train, the hunger is for the best and so the hunt for options. Options also lessen dependence on one source, a cardinal and expanding India principle. So while Ruskie dominance will end, perhaps Bollywood will endure.
IBNLive : Surya Gangadharan's Blog : Whither India-Russia relations?
