Why going ' MAD ' won't work for India ?

[Kompromat]

Yes, and in order to be a deterrent, the other side must believe you are willing to use it.

Pakistan's nukes work because India believes that Pakistan will use them.

Similar to how China in the 1960's was preparing to "fight and survive" a total nuclear war with the USA, since at that point they clearly had more to lose than we did, and we would have a huge population left.

Above that any Nuclear war between India and Pakistan even if it remains limited to a single strike by either nation will render the S.Asian wheat belt infertile due to the radiation, which provides food to not only India and Pakistan but to Afghanistan and many regional nations. When this land is made infertile, the rest of the population will starve to death.

Light green.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Above that any Nuclear war between India and Pakistan even if it remains limited to a single strike by either nation will render the S.Asian wheat belt infertile due to the radiation, which provides food to not only India and Pakistan but to Afghanistan and many regional nations. When this land is made infertile, the rest of the population will starve to death.

Light green.

You're right, any widespread radioactive contamination of water sources across such important agricultural areas would be a death-stroke to any economy in South Asia.

Pakistan's nuclear deterrent against India is pretty much foolproof at this moment. No one would risk a nuclear war with so much at stake.

 

[NKVD]

You're right, any widespread radioactive contamination of water sources across such important agricultural areas would be a death-stroke to any economy in South Asia.

Pakistan's nuclear deterrent against India is pretty much foolproof at this moment. No one would risk a nuclear war with so much at stake.

No it's not pakistan Don't have effective nukes like China posses.even whatever they claim they have nukes of very Low yeilds which btw 18-25kt maximum lacks thermonuclears weapons like india posses.And china on the other hand is in his Own league with Maximum 2-3 Mt yeild maximum.so pakistan have minimum but not maximum deterrence like china have in single strike.

 

[skysthelimit]

Well .MAD will happens when our enemy is China.
Pakistan I dont think so.Missiles enter in to Indian air space only after a screening through our ABM,long range SAM.
So you need a massive ripple firing to overcome it .If we can continue developemnt of our present ABM system it can counter more than 20 missiles in same time.
So China will be our worthy opponent.They can do that.

No ABM systems is ever going to be full proof. Pakistan only has to launch more missiles than we have the capacity to absorb. There is a great quote from the seminal Tom Clancy book "Red Storm Rising" -
Aegis was state-of-the-art, the best SAM system yet devised, but it had one major weakness: Tico carried only ninety-six SM2 surface-to-air missiles; there were one hundred forty incoming Kingfish. The computer had not been programmed to think about that.

Above that any Nuclear war between India and Pakistan even if it remains limited to a single strike by either nation will render the S.Asian wheat belt infertile due to the radiation, which provides food to not only India and Pakistan but to Afghanistan and many regional nations. When this land is made infertile, the rest of the population will starve to death.

Light green.

True that.

That is the folly for either India or Pakistan to try surviving a second strike - even 4 - 5 nukes will kick up enough fallout to render most of our countries as uninhabitable. And given prevalent wind patterns, expect it to take out Afghanistan, most of Iran and parts of central Asia as well.

Although Andaman looks like it will survive - maybe I should buy property there.

 

[ares]

India is four times as big as Pakistan and has a population six times as much. Logic dictates to cause similar level damage..Pakistan will need to deploy 4-5 times nuclear weapons than those required to by India.

Even a country as small as and as battered(in WW2) as Japan survived two atomic blasts. Not having developed thermonuclear weapons most of Pakistani nuclear weapons will have only bit higher yields.

In addition India is in the process of deploying dual layer anti missile shields(with stated interception rate of 99.9%) around its tier 1 and tier 2 cities.

Bottom line is Pakistan will need to fire lot more weapons to go 'MAD' with India.

Will Pakistan have this ability is big question mark, especially if India decides to change its doctrine(under the new regime) to preemptive strike against Pakistani nuclear forces and especiall y since all her weapons being land based, an assured second strike capability will be cast in serious doubts in such a scenario.

 

[skysthelimit]

India is four times as big as Pakistan and has a population six times as much. Logic dictates to cause similar level damage..Pakistan will need to deploy 4-5 times nuclear weapons than those required to by India.

Do you think that the destructive potential of a nuclear weapon is measured by its blast radius? NO. Most of the damage will be from fallout - so even 4 - 5 nukes can cause irreparable damage to our manpower & economy.

In addition India is in the process of deploying dual layer anti missile shields(with stated interception rate of 99.9%) around its tier 1 and tier 2 cities.

See above.

Bottom line is Pakistan will need to fire lot more weapons to go 'MAD' with India.

And she will.

 

[Indo-guy]

If your government has the same foolish tought, then you'll be wipet out before being able to use your full force.
Just think, you have 500 million people incapacitated with famine, Pakistan has only to hit your elite cities and you are back to stone age, with some few hundred years to get rid of the fallouts on your agriculture for example. So what would you be doing, eating each other eventhough infected with radiations.
Think before talking about wiping out a nuclear country with more advanced nuclear heads than yours.
On top of it, do you seriously think that China will sit and look? or will it wipe you out before, just after your first move with the first nuclear warhead detonated.
Even in a conventional environment where you think so much of yourselves, Pakistan is no small player, and backed by more than a billion muslims who will see to it that you are wiped out of the face of earth, mostly for the responsable ones amongst you, but the whole of India will pay the price of any such foolishness.

@Chinese-Dragon , @Aeronaut


A country of as small size as Japan survived 2 nuclear blasts that too after having ruined totally at the fag end of WW II.

any nuclear assault on India will invite immediate massive second retaliation .

India's size , extent of territory and its huge and diverse repertoire of missiles give it credible second strike capability .

For Pakistan to annihilate country of India's size which is 7 times larger than Pakistan it will have to field 10 times larger nuclear arsenal - which Pakistan simply can't afford .
Even if Pakistan could afford it , it has no fissile material to do that

India on second hand after NSG admission have unrestricted asscess to worldwide uranium which will free up dometic uranium for fissile production .

Completion of India's FBR & 3 stage nuclear programme will enhance plutonium production by atleast 10 times that of Pakistan .

India possesses larger land mass , larger stockpile of nuclear weapons , larger inventory of missiles .

India possess Thermo nuclear weapons - something which Pakistan does not .

In even of nuclear war Pakistan's prime nuclear installation at Chagai will be taken out .

India on other hand possess multiple nuclear installation all of which can't be taken out by Pakistan.


There is no way Pakistan can survive nuclear onslaught .


India will survive nuclear holocaust although severely crippled. However it will bounce back due to sheer size population and economy.

 

[gslv mk3]

India's size , extent of territory and its huge and diverse repertoire of missiles give it credible second strike capability .
Completion of India's FBR & 3 stage nuclear programme will enhance plutonium production by atleast 10 times that of Pakistan .
India possesses larger land mass , larger stockpile of nuclear weapons , larger inventory of missiles .
India possess Thermo nuclear weapons - something which Pakistan does not .

True-You forgot SLBMs though..

 

[Indo-guy]

True-You forgot SLBMs though..

since at this point of time we have not inducted SLBMs . I did not include that .

Yes we are on the verge of inducting SLBM which will enhance second strike capability against Pakistan.

that's the reason why rapid development of K17 and K4 is so important .

we need sea based second strike capability against China also .

And I understand IN had made it clear that it needs 6000 km + SLBM for this reason alone .

India's nuclear arsenal and inventory of long range missiles is only going to swell up in near future ....

 

[MilSpec]

Both countries have jugaadu streak of self preservation.... India wont change status quo which fuels it's military growth.... Pakistani Army wont give up a country it owns.... Threat is good business ... actual war is dumb

The idea that India will survive a nuclear attack is quite hilarious in my view as well. What India exactly will survive? what form? What machinery will be able to hold on and rebuild after a Pakistani strike. This is what Pakistan games on. WE KNOW WE WILL ALL DIE AND BE DESTROYED.. you seem to think that is lost upon us.
But what is lost upon you is that we have worked hard to ensure that when our strikes are done, there is little semblance to be left of India as a nation and state that any "victory" being declared would sound frivolous and idiotic.

This isnt a case of a big guy beating a little guy with punches and coming out on top with a few bruised. Here both have guns and both will shoot for the heart. India will burn alongside us if heaven forbid nuclear war does happen.

I fear that the nature of the warfare is changing pretty fast, and the doctrines might be still stuck in old WWII mist. For India to do real damage to pakistan, the battlefield is in the markets, not on the borders....

 

[Indo-guy]

No it's not pakistan Don't have effective nukes like China posses.even whatever they claim they have nukes of very Low yeilds which btw 18-25kt maximum lacks thermonuclears weapons like india posses.And china on the other hand is in his Own league with Maximum 2-3 Mt yeild maximum.so pakistan have minimum but not maximum deterrence like china have in single strike.

Truth is that first strike by Pakistan will evaporate them .

India is four times as big as Pakistan and has a population six times as much. Logic dictates to cause similar level damage..Pakistan will need to deploy 4-5 times nuclear weapons than those required to by India.

Even a country as small as and as battered(in WW2) as Japan survived two atomic blasts. Not having developed thermonuclear weapons most of Pakistani nuclear weapons will have only bit higher yields.

In addition India is in the process of deploying dual layer anti missile shields(with stated interception rate of 99.9%) around its tier 1 and tier 2 cities.

Bottom line is Pakistan will need to fire lot more weapons to go 'MAD' with India.

Will Pakistan have this ability is big question mark, especially if India decides to change its doctrine(under the new regime) to preemptive strike against Pakistani nuclear forces and especiall y since all her weapons being land based, an assured second strike capability will be cast in serious doubts in such a scenario.

Pakistan's current missile do not cover even whole of India .
they do not have SLBMs .
they virtually have no ABM defense against India's missile arsenal.
and as it is excluded from global nuclear commerce , it has no access to fissile material as India has .
It's economy which is in ruins will not allow it to equip with such large number of weapons .

their means to have equal number of delivery systems is also questionable .

Pakistan has no credible first strike capability ....forget about second strike capability .

Pakistan will not survive to launch any second strike in event of nuclear war with India .

They have no chance against India in this context ....

 

[The Deterrent]

their means to have equal number of delivery systems is also questionable .
Pakistan has no credible first strike capability ....forget about second strike capability .

WoW, those are some amazing remarks. Tell me, how would you describe a "First Strike Capability?"

 

[Tshering22]

IMO MAD option keeps both the parties away from aggression. Whether international community pressures India not to respond or not, heavens forbid, but any leader in power will authorize a massive nuclear second strike if the aggressor launches attacks first.

tactical nuke or not, it is nuclear and response should be disproportionate second strike. The idea is to make the cost of war unacceptable to the enemy. It is not about superiority of conventional forces, but trying to make it impossible even for the other country to attack and take territory.

That is what MAD is all about.

This will simply ensure peace and that no one tries to grab others' land.

 

[NKVD]

WoW, those are some amazing remarks. Tell me, how would you describe a "First Strike Capability?"

First strike capibility should be powerful and effective so the other cannot reply in second strike.first strike should consist High Yeilds Nukes that can cover large area upto minimum btw 50-200 kt. Eg USA B-91 nuclear warhead have a yeild of 1.2 MT

 

[The Deterrent]

First strike capibility should be powerful and effective so the other cannot reply in second strike.first strike should consist High Yeilds Nukes that can cover large area upto minimum btw 50-200 kt. Eg USA B-91 nuclear warhead have a yeild of 1.2 MT

That is true, but only in the context of the Cold War. USA/USSR had to target each other's missile silos, hundreds of them.
No, since a first strike is meant to take out the adversary's nuclear weapons, the warheads don't need to cover large area...rather accurate strikes on key storage sites, even with low yields can do the job.