Why Pakistan can not ignore Afghanistan

[ziaulislam]

Trump's re-election will depend on the economy first and foremost, with matters like Afghanistan and Syria remaining only on the periphery of the voting public's mind.

Well we can agree to disagree here..
But poor people of States like west Virginia do ask that why 2 t dollars were spent outside when they are suffering from health infrastructure crisis

 

[VCheng]

Well we can agree to disagree here..
But poor people of States like west Virginia do ask that why 2 t dollars were spent outside when they are suffering from health infrastructure crisis

We can discuss this elsewhere when the time comes, I am sure.

On topic here, Pakistan's interests in Afghanistan should be independent of the degree of US involvement there. The goal should be to seek alignments of national interests rather than competing.

 

[ziaulislam]

We can discuss this elsewhere when the time comes, I am sure.

On topic here, Pakistan's interests in Afghanistan should be independent of the degree of US involvement there. The goal should be to seek alignments of national interests rather than competing.

But it cant be...Afghanistan liberal elite and western alliance used to over throw taliban are anti Pakistan because they see Pakistanis as imperialist who have occupied part of Afghanistan while enemy of enemy a friend like india and will allow all sort of terrorist activities be it bombing or school bus hijacking as they did in 1990s ...

They will not change this mindset...therefore there is no hope for Pakistan to remain stable..

just recently newyork times reported that baloch terroists which were their guests were killed at governor house and Pakistan was blamed for it

In last 17 yrs Afghanistan wasnt developed enough for the people to realize the benefits of stabilizer and peace..the one single road that would connect Afghanistan the ring road was never completed because it was deemed too costly at 2 billion dollars (0.1% of money spent in Afghanistan)...so it makes it impossible for Afghan troops to transit without air travel ..for that USA bought AG 222 transporters at half a billion dollars that afghan scrapped for metal behind the scenes!

 

[VCheng]

But it cant be...Afghanistan liberal elite and western alliance used to over throw taliban are anti Pakistan because they see Pakistanis as imperialist who have occupied part of Afghanistan while enemy of enemy a friend like india and will allow all sort of terrorist activities be it bombing or school bus hijacking as they did in 1990s ...

They will not change this mindset...therefore there is no hope for Pakistan to remain stable..

just recently newyork times reported that baloch terroists which were their guests were killed at governor house and Pakistan was blamed for it

In last 17 yrs Afghanistan wasnt developed enough for the people to realize the benefits of stabilizer and peace..the one single road that would connect Afghanistan the ring road was never completed because it was deemed too costly at 2 billion dollars (0.1% of money spent in Afghanistan)...so it makes it impossible for Afghan troops to transit without air travel ..for that USA bought AG 222 transporters at half a billion dollars that afghan scrapped for metal behind the scenes!

So what are Pakistan's options if we assume what you have said above to be correct?

 

[ziaulislam]

So what are Pakistan's options if we assume what you have said above to be correct?

Wait it out isolate and fence the boarder ...

Current elite is interested in the money they are not there to stay or fight..as numerous BBC reports the elite dont send their sons to fight and have setups in western countries channeling all the corruption ...once the support goes Afghanistan will fall in choas...

Only solution is negotiated settlement drawn on ethnic lines with each region self governing..but will taliban/northern alliance honor it?

 

[VCheng]

Wait it out isolate and fence the boarder ...

Current elite is interested in the money they are not there to stay or fight..as numerous BBC reports the elite dont send their sons to fight and have setups in western countries channeling all the corruption ...once the support goes Afghanistan will fall in choas...

Only solution is negotiated settlement drawn on ethnic lines with each region self governing..but will taliban/northern alliance honor it?

I see. So Pakistan is waiting for the pieces to fall before it moves in? Somehow, I do not think that is a good approach, given that other players will also do their level best to fill in any vacuum left by any reduction in US involvement. Pakistan will find it quite difficult to have the playing field to itself, no matter what USA does in Afghanistan.

 

[ziaulislam]

I see. So Pakistan is waiting for the pieces to fall before it moves in? Somehow, I do not think that is a good approach, given that other players will also do their level best to fill in any vacuum left by any reduction in US involvement. Pakistan will find it quite difficult to have the playing field to itself, no matter what USA does in Afghanistan.

As long as india stays out all other regional players have same interests as Pakistan ..dont let Afghanistan be used against anyone and stability

The reason why pakistan FM is visiting all neighboring countries again and again

 

[VCheng]

As long as india stays out all other regional players have same interests as Pakistan ..dont let Afghanistan be used against anyone and stability

And how can Pakistan ensure that India stays out? That is not as easy as one might think.

 

[ziaulislam]

Ideally Pakistan wanted development in Afghanistan that would automatically means afghans will understand the benefits of peace but that didnt work out ..

And how can Pakistan ensure that India stays out? That is not as easy as one might think.

You are right here...

 

[araz]

I see. So Pakistan is waiting for the pieces to fall before it moves in? Somehow, I do not think that is a good approach, given that other players will also do their level best to fill in any vacuum left by any reduction in US involvement. Pakistan will find it quite difficult to have the playing field to itself, no matter what USA does in Afghanistan.

I think the concept of strategic depth is dead in the mind of the PAk brass. Pakistan wants none of the trouble from backing one ofr the other party in Afghanistan. Its prime interest is to restore peace in Afghanistan via a proportional representation based on demography/Ethnicity which is an unfortunate reality of Modern day Afghanistan. However what will remain an issue for pak lands is the humanitarian crisis which will ensue in case of a hiatus and consequent mass migration which in spite of all the fences will become difficult to refuse. This is why Paklands wants the US brass and polity to discuss a peaceful withdrawal with a stabilized environment with proportionate representation and a sitting Government. Whether this actually materializes( as it has not done so for nearly 100 years)is another pont of discussion.
A

 

[VCheng]

I think the concept of strategic depth is dead in the mind of the PAk brass. Pakistan wants none of the trouble from backing one ofr the other party in Afghanistan. Its prime interest is to restore peace in Afghanistan via a proportional representation based on demography/Ethnicity which is an unfortunate reality of Modern day Afghanistan. However what will remain an issue for pak lands is the humanitarian crisis which will ensue in case of a hiatus and consequent mass migration which in spite of all the fences will become difficult to refuse. This is why Paklands wants the US brass and polity to discuss a peaceful withdrawal with a stabilized environment with proportionate representation and a sitting Government. Whether this actually materializes( as it has not done so for nearly 100 years)is another pont of discussion.
A

The question that both sides will naturally ask is what can Pakistan offer in return to get what you describe in bold above.

 

[araz]

And how can Pakistan ensure that India stays out? That is not as easy as one might think.

Once the US umbrella goes and the NA regresses back to its province, it will become very difficult for Indians to remain in Afghanistan. A pushtun dominated Afghanistan will not tolerate Indians, but then they might not tolerate pakistanis either. So all in all it might be good for Afghanistan.
A

The question that both sides will naturally ask is what can Pakistan offer in return to get what you describe in bold above.

May I ask rather boldly what the US will give to Paklands to achieve this outcome which would be a huge moral victory for them? What is it worth for them? So you see this argument works both ways!!
A

 

[VCheng]

Once the US umbrella goes and the NA regresses back to its province, it will become very difficult for Indians to remain in Afghanistan. A pushtun dominated Afghanistan will not tolerate Indians, but then they might not tolerate pakistanis either. So all in all it might be good for Afghanistan.
A

It sounds reasonable, but it may or may not happen. There will likely be some enduring US presence, and the NA may not regress to the extent Pakistan would like. The stalemate will remain unsettled in such a scenario.

May I ask rather boldly what the US will give to Paklands to achieve this outcome which would be a huge moral victory for them? What is it worth for them? So you see this argument works both ways!!
A

Absolutely! That is exactly how international geopolitics works. From the US point of view, what can they offer Pakistan in return? Please do keep in mind that US policies serve only its national interests as morality is not an applicable concept in this domain.

 

[ziaulislam]

I think the concept of strategic depth is dead in the mind of the PAk brass. Pakistan wants none of the trouble from backing one ofr the other party in Afghanistan. Its prime interest is to restore peace in Afghanistan via a proportional representation based on demography/Ethnicity which is an unfortunate reality of Modern day Afghanistan. However what will remain an issue for pak lands is the humanitarian crisis which will ensue in case of a hiatus and consequent mass migration which in spite of all the fences will become difficult to refuse. This is why Paklands wants the US brass and polity to discuss a peaceful withdrawal with a stabilized environment with proportionate representation and a sitting Government. Whether this actually materializes( as it has not done so for nearly 100 years)is another pont of discussion.
A

issue with this is that india and western elites/Northern alliance doesnt want that...otherwise USA would have achieved this long ago...USA wasnt listening to pakistan for last 10 years..and it seems its listening now buti doubt with lobbying pressure india has, it will..things will go back to how they were

unless taliban are given parts to freely governor it will not happen, something the elite will not accept...had Afghanistan been developed more than it was bombed we might have been looking at a different scenrio

we are already seeing signs that trump is back tracking and thus we might see another decade of stale mate..who will tire up first the Taliban, or the US backed elites/northern alliance

since US invaded Afghanistan pakistan interest is essentially stability not strategic dept, with nuclear weaposn we dont need Afghanistan, we just need a peaceful neighbour who can take 5 million refugess and keep its 30 million people

while india wants it to keep pessure on pakistan and punish it for speaking a word for kashmiris..so if pakistan let go kashmir, india might let go afghanistan

 

[TMA]

I think the concept of strategic depth is dead in the mind of the PAk brass. Pakistan wants none of the trouble from backing one ofr the other party in Afghanistan. Its prime interest is to restore peace in Afghanistan via a proportional representation based on demography/Ethnicity which is an unfortunate reality of Modern day Afghanistan. However what will remain an issue for pak lands is the humanitarian crisis which will ensue in case of a hiatus and consequent mass migration which in spite of all the fences will become difficult to refuse. This is why Paklands wants the US brass and polity to discuss a peaceful withdrawal with a stabilized environment with proportionate representation and a sitting Government. Whether this actually materializes( as it has not done so for nearly 100 years)is another pont of discussion.
A

Isn't Strategic Depth just another way of saying that Afghanistan accepts the existence of Pakistan and does NOT allow her territory to be used for anti-Pakistani events?