Why Pakistan can not ignore Afghanistan

[araz]

It sounds reasonable, but it may or may not happen. There will likely be some enduring US presence, and the NA may not regress to the extent Pakistan would like. The stalemate will remain unsettled in such a scenario.



Absolutely! That is exactly how international geopolitics works. From the US point of view, what can they offer Pakistan in return? Please do keep in mind that US policies serve only its national interests as morality is not an applicable concept in this domain.

Regarding the first paragraph, this is what US wants. The taliban might think differently as they have a chnce of reducing the NA to the provinces adjoining Iran from where they garner support and rule 85% of Afghanistan. From their perspective would it be suitable to have continued US presence as new leadership may want to assure the various sub groups amongst the Taliban that they have defeated the US and essentially kicked it out of Afghanistan. This maybe necessary to actually command a leading role amongst the various subgroups. This is where uncertainty comes in.
Economy is where it matters for the US. Their needs and requests may have to be tempered by Afghnistan ground realities.
As to what Pakistan can gain out of this situation, I personally think very little. Perhaps IMF leniency for loans, release of AH1Zs. 16s are required but to what extent can PAF resist the temptation to not put their dirty mits into the cookie jar remains to be seen. I think the 16s have now become a low priority. For the US it remains a biig temptation to tease the PAF with. So interesting times ahead. There are other forces like Russia and China who are in the fray as well and for Pak lands it will remain a tricky balancing game.
A

Isn't Strategic Depth just another way of saying that Afghanistan accepts the existence of Pakistan and does NOT allow her territory to be used for anti-Pakistani events?

It used to be a bit more than that but nowadays even that will do.
A

 

[TMA]

Regarding the first paragraph, this is what US wants. The taliban might think differently as they have a chnce of rexucing the NA to the provinces adjoining Iran from where they garner support and rule 85% of Afghanistan. From their perspective would it be suitable to have cojtinued US presence as new leadership may want to assure the various sub groups amongst the Taliban that they have defeated the US and essentially kicked it out of Afghanistan. This maybe necessary to actually command a leading role amongst the various subgroups. This is where uncertainty comes in.
Economy is where it matters for the US. Their needs and requests may have to be tempered by Afghnistan ground realities.
As to what Pakistan can gain out of this situation, I personally think very little. Perhaps IMF leniency for loans, release of AH1Zs. 16s are required but to what extent can PAF resist the temptation to not put their dirty mits into the cookie jar remains to be seen. I think the 16s have now become a low priority. For the US it remains a biig temptation to tease the PAF with. So interesting times ahead. There are other forces like Russia and China/who are in the fray as well and for Pak lands it will remain a tricky balancing game.
A


It used to be a bit more than thag but nowadays even that will do.
A

It has to do lest Pakistan is further destabilised ad nauseam....

 

[VCheng]

Regarding the first paragraph, this is what US wants. The taliban might think differently as they have a chnce of reducing the NA to the provinces adjoining Iran from where they garner support and rule 85% of Afghanistan. From their perspective would it be suitable to have continued US presence as new leadership may want to assure the various sub groups amongst the Taliban that they have defeated the US and essentially kicked it out of Afghanistan. This maybe necessary to actually command a leading role amongst the various subgroups. This is where uncertainty comes in.
Economy is where it matters for the US. Their needs and requests may have to be tempered by Afghnistan ground realities.
As to what Pakistan can gain out of this situation, I personally think very little. Perhaps IMF leniency for loans, release of AH1Zs. 16s are required but to what extent can PAF resist the temptation to not put their dirty mits into the cookie jar remains to be seen. I think the 16s have now become a low priority. For the US it remains a biig temptation to tease the PAF with. So interesting times ahead. There are other forces like Russia and China who are in the fray as well and for Pak lands it will remain a tricky balancing game.
A

Interesting perspective, and one that concludes correctly that there are interesting times ahead indeed. Thank you for indulging me for now. I eagerly await further developments as US is poised for an economic recession and Pakistan is moving away from it as a military supplier in the midst of its own economic crisis, while Russia and China balance their Afghan approaches with what they are embroiled in elsewhere.

 

[Verve]

Fencing was a start, and now the Visa (application at embassy and security vetting of applicant) will restrict movement. Normalise movement across borders first and foremost.

 

[araz]

Fencing was a start, and now the Visa (application at embassy and security vetting of applicant) will restrict movement. Normalise movement across borders first and foremost.

I think mass migration in response to war has been a problem in the past. If the US withdraws suddenly we may face the same situation. Unrest in Paklands is incited with payments of money so the actors in this venture can still act through local/proxies.
A

 

[VCheng]

I think mass migration in response to war has been a problem in the past. If the US withdraws suddenly we may face the same situation. Unrest in Paklands is incited with payments of money so the actors in this venture can still act through local/proxies.
A

The real issue on this border is the prevalence of smuggling, which is almost a way of life, and the huge financial incentives that come with it to corrupt people on both sides. This avenue then creates the condition through which other adverse incitements can enter the country.

 

[araz]

The real issue on this border is the prevalence of smuggling, which is almost a way of life, and the huge financial incentives that come with it to corrupt people on both sides. This avenue then creates the condition through which other adverse incitements can enter the country.

There is prevalence of smuggling on ALL borders bar none of Pakistan. However if people can just stop the arms coming in and with biometrics unsavoury characters are stopped and returned /captured it would stop the creation of unrest within the country. Smuggling will happen on the borders as people on both sides make money as you have rightly mentioned.
A

 

[VCheng]

There is prevalence of smuggling on ALL borders bar none of Pakistan. However if people can just stop the arms coming in and with biometrics unsavoury characters are stopped and returned /captured it would stop the creation of unrest within the country. Smuggling will happen on the borders as people on both sides make money as you have rightly mentioned.
A

You have worded it better. It is not just the arms issues here, though, since the magnitude of smuggling by definition creates money transfers that are outside the purview of the regular banking channels, an issue that causes the State untold grief in its international commitments to try and reduce/stop money laundering, not to mention the huge revenue losses to the national coffers.

 

[araz]

You have worded it better. It is not just the arms issues here, though, since the magnitude of smuggling by definition creates money transfers that are outside the purview of the regular banking channels, an issue that causes the State untold grief in its international commitments to try and reduce/stop money laundering, not to mention the huge revenue losses to the national coffers.

I think realistically that is one aspect that will be difficult to stop. As you said there are political, regional, economical and purely greed factors which dictate the difficulty in stopping this . One of the ways maybe to establish barter trade at the border checkposts which might give incentives to the relatively honest tradesman to ply the trade. A nominal fee can be imposed to allow people to trade there. The proceeds from there could go to the people who organize and guard such a venture with a local negotiating committee to sort disputes out locally.
However the less "conventional " produce will also make its way through due to the buying power that the vielders have. Short of a miracle on both sides I cant see it stopping.
A

 

[VCheng]

I think realistically that is one aspect that will be difficult to stop. As you said there are political, regional, economical and purely greed factors which dictate the difficulty in stopping this . One of the ways maybe to establish barter trade at the border checkposts which might give incentives to the relatively honest tradesman to ply the trade. A nominal fee can be imposed to allow people to trade there. The proceeds from there could go to the people who organize and guard such a venture with a local negotiating committee to sort disputes out locally.
However the less "conventional " produce will also make its way through due to the buying power that the vielders have. Short of a miracle on both sides I cant see it stopping.
A

It can be done, using some of your very good suggestions, and a few more. But, I also agree with you in that it will never be done in reality simply because the pay-offs are huge (and not just in monetary terms) for those who have the power to actually do something about this situation. Sad but true.

 

[Sinnerman108]

If history tells us any thing,
We have done anything but ignore Afghanistan.