Will Turkey receive F-35 Joint Strike Fighters from The USA?

[TheMightyBender]

Just curious about your opinions. Will Turkey receive the f35 fighters or will the US block its sale to Turkey?

 

[Mr.NiceGuy]

Nope

 

[TheMightyBender]

Follow up question: if the jets are delivered on 21 June as planned, will that be it? Or can the US still somehow prevent the jets from being flown to Turkey next year?

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Should be buying 75 JF17 Thunders to Solidify the airforce till the Turkish Stealth program finishes

 

[azyr]

It's a bluff, I suggest you read up on Hakan Kılıç's Kokpit Aero articles concerning the F35.

The gist of it is ;

• This is a major project and not subject to whims of politicians
• The F35's main strength lies in it's wide availability for NATO countries, which enable it to pretty much use assets and her incredible link very effectively
• Turkey has ordered over 100 jets and will probably end up with over 150 (including variants). Turkey is the largest buyer after the US (not sure about the UK TBH) and one of the main reasons the jet is around $85m now. If Turkey decides not to buy or is stopped from receiving the orders the jets price will climb very fast resulting in a domino effect that will ruin the program for good.

This is classic US posturing and nothing will come of it unless the politicians bend to their whim and cancel the s400 BEFORE we get the patriots. But that's pretty much impossible as we've already paid a huge amount upfront for the s400.

 

[UkroTurk]

If Turkey makes payment , We will purchase.Why not? Trump is constant to decrease cost of jointghter program. Selling f-35 , They reduced costs and budget.

 

[OguzSenturk]

We didn't order 100 jet. He just exaggerates things to imply that we have the upper hand.

They can very well block the sale. China is the only country that can put a same class fighter jet as F35 (with probably inferior avionics) on the table.

 

[fitpOsitive]

I think yes. There are many reasons for that. And by 2023, I think many nations will be equipped with anti-F-35 weapons. So, why USA will not earn money now?
The real question should be: will Turkey be successful in TFX program? Or is Turkey ready for post 2023 implications?

 

[TheMightyBender]

• This is a major project and not subject to whims of politicians

Its not like this has never happened before. I suggest you read up on Iran f15 deal if you havent already.

• The F35's main strength lies in it's wide availability for NATO countries, which enable it to pretty much use assets and her incredible link very effectively

Fair point. But not that significant.

• Turkey has ordered over 100 jets and will probably end up with over 150 (including variants). Turkey is the largest buyer after the US (not sure about the UK TBH) and one of the main reasons the jet is around $85m now. If Turkey decides not to buy or is stopped from receiving the orders the jets price will climb very fast resulting in a domino effect that will ruin the program for good.

That is one way of putting it. Another way would be to say Turkey is going to buy roughly 3% of planned F-35 jets. I dont think that will affect the price too much.

We didn't order 100 jet. He just exaggerates things to imply that we have the upper hand.

They can very well block the sale. China is the only country that can put a same class fighter jet as F35 (with probably inferior avionics) on the table.

Agreed. But the real question is, will they?
I mean its not like the US is not unaffected by this decision. Although they can do it, blocking the f35 sale to Turkey would have big ramifications for the US. Not only will this irreparably damage US-Turkey relations but also US' reputation in the arms industry will be completely sullied.

 

[Deliorman]

Considering all the contracts signed and the fact that it’s a Joint program Turkey and Turkish companies are part of I don’t think American politicians can block the sale so easily without any consequences for the American side. Lockheed Martin for sure won’t be happy considering how much money and hard work are invested in the program and they don’t need more time and resources lost.

On the other hand we talk about Trump, the Hawks around him and the Republicans so nothing can surprise me.

 

[Mucahit]

Considering all the contracts signed and the fact that it’s a Joint program Turkey and Turkish companies are part of I don’t think American politicians can block the sale so easily without any consequences for the American side. Lockheed Martin for sure won’t be happy considering how much money and hard work are invested in the program and they don’t need more time and resources lost.

On the other hand we talk about Trump, the Hawks around him and the Republicans so nothing can surprise me.

Maybe it's better if they block the sale so we can sue them for compensation and look for other alternatives.

The way the US acts about this whole issue shows how much they can actually be trusted.

The problem is not even delivering part but what happens afterwards. You see F-35 is a network plane, highly technological for example if F-16 is a calculator the F-35 would be a computer. The planes will be highly dependent on the US all the time for almost anything.

They might deliver the plane but refuse to give spare part or certain weapon systems? That's the real problem.

My suggestion: Buy around 30-40 F-35's and look for other alternatives in the meantime. A lot of experts also say that purchasing this plane will hinder our own TF-X project big time.

 

[Trango Towers]

Turkey is a linchpin geographically and cannot be ignored no matter how hard the jews try. If turkey is sidelined it will move into the eastern camp close to Russia. Knowing NATO secrets will be bad news for NATO as well

 

[azyr]

Its not like this has never happened before. I suggest you read up on Iran f15 deal if you havent already.

Fair point. But not that significant.

That is one way of putting it. Another way would be to say Turkey is going to buy roughly 3% of planned F-35 jets. I dont think that will affect the price too much.


Agreed. But the real question is, will they?
I mean its not like the US is not unaffected by this decision. Although they can do it, blocking the f35 sale to Turkey would have big ramifications for the US. Not only will this irreparably damage US-Turkey relations but also US' reputation in the arms industry will be completely sullied.

Turkey like all countries buys these jets in small batches (to manage price fluctuations). Every jet sold decreases the price. Maybe the final outcome is %3 overall (if you are including the US btw), but the reality is the price now.

This is a controversial plane and the main attack vector on it is PRICE! Most countries including the level 1 partner UK (which also helped design the damn thing) are looking skeptically at it and are on the tipping point of not buying into it. Turkey being out raises prices AND maintenance costs resulting in "on the fence" countries opting not to buy in resulting in "uneasy countries" opting out resulting in... do I have to spell the whole domino effect to you?

Just a reminder, look up the F22 project and how much the US HERSELF was going to order and look what happened to it afterwards. Even after relooking at the economics they've still FIRMLY decided no other F22's are going to be built (with good reason mind you).

Do you really think the US wont cut back on her own orders of the F35 if it fails internationally? The project is at a high risk even now.

I'm not even going into the US military industry taking a huge credibility hit etc., you've covered that.

We didn't order 100 jet. He just exaggerates things to imply that we have the upper hand.

They can very well block the sale. China is the only country that can put a same class fighter jet as F35 (with probably inferior avionics) on the table.

Technically? You're right, but for all intents and purposes you're not. Yes we haven't inked a 100+ order but that's because (like every goddamn buyer of the jet) we're buying in batches and every other batch we buy has the price decreased.

The main strength of the F35 isn't her incredible maneuverability or high weapons load or range at all (in fact these are her disadvantages), her strength lies in her versatility, networking performance, state of the art radar, EW capabilities and her natural commander role of NATO assets.

She's a flagship designed to move the battlefield around while also being able to take care of herself.

Now, which one of these roles does a Chinese jet (which no one really knows what it's truly capable of) fill?

Anyway, not to stray too much from the subject discussed here, there's also logistical issues if you remove Turkey from the JSF program, which we've been a part of since nearly the inception (level 3).

Turkey is the de facto maintenance hub for Europe ( http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39501299 ) while also a producer of critical parts. Trying to remedy this will cost the program high amounts of money and time. Replacing Turkey after so much infrastructure was built for the F35 is not an easy, cheap nor fast task.

I'm repeating myself, but this is a bluff at best or a terrible decision by the US at worst. I refuse to believe that Pentagon wont brief the congress on what exactly they're dealing with here. This isn't about a straightforward air platform sale - this is a huge project being disassembled - no way that's going to fly.​

 

[Islamic faith&Secularism]

What causes this question is also the answer to the same question keeps bringing such questions on the stage in order to draw the line.

Regardless... Highly skeptic.

 

[Avicenna]

I think Turkey will get its examples in June.

However, the success of TFX and other indigenous programs is critical.

Anti Turkish lobbyists are working hard in Washington. (pro-Israeli, Armenian and Greeks)

Going forward, it will be important to pivot away from US sourced systems and develop Turkish ones as well as cooperate with the UK and other high quality partners.