WW3 warning: US Senator warns China to be 'biggest threat' to world 'for next century'
- Thread starter Mangus Ortus Novem
- Start date
He probably will.
For trump the strategy was to balme china and win election.
But now main election issues in usa is not china any more. Its the police reform and race issues. So more domestic issue.
So trump will rather want some what working relation with china to prop up the economy before the election. Usa media dont talk about china any more. Focus has shifted.
Question is how long domestic issue will dominate. Have to wait and see.
when was Cold War 2?
Mangus Ortus Novem
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Just 19 years short of the TwoCenturies... the FirstOpiumWar!
QingChina running a trade surplus, with its own banking system and massive productivity gains in farming.... it could exist on its own... trading the surplus with EastAsia, SouthEastAsia and CentralAsia was enough for a rich and stable continent sized country!
Unbeknown to the QingChina... the CombinedWest had made IndustrialAdvance ... hence, the ability to impose its Policy through Naval/MilitaryPower...
The CombinedWest was out to conquer the world ... QingChina was happy within, having no need of the without.
Opium for Silver. FairTrade?
To America's credit Americans were only controlling 10% of the OpiumTrade with China while the British ruled the roost with their Opium supply-lines from BritishIndia to ChineseHarbours.
HongKong Taken at GunPoint. HSBC could manifest!
QingChina was ready for Disorder Under the Heavens ... Warlords... one even called himself Jesus's younger-brother ... as he was a convert... Engineered Choas of Hybridwar on the QingChina continued till the CPC chased out the KMT.
[Leaving out the Japanese part out for later]
History Reapting or Not so quite?
"Let China sleep, for when she awakes, she will shake the world" - French General was right on the mark it seems.
Before diving in the new twists and turns of the Last Sino-US Tango and their broader/global implications ... perhaps, it is valuable to revisit the Framing of China by the US and US led CombinedWest:
>>The question would be silly and useless to pose that why in one place there is so much agony for the lives and freedoms of Muslims and in other places it is not??<<
Why Xinjiang gets all the US-Love and NOT the PakKashmiris of IoJK?
Obiviously, Geopolitics of the GreatPowers is about Power and using any issue to their advantage... the mantras of Freedom, Liberty and HumanRights ... are just PolicyInstruements same as an ACC.
500.000 Iraqi children dead was Worth It !!! - Ms. Albright
It is the Nature of Power to be Dark and Heartless.... it is what it is!
Since, Mr. Cliton's time the Framing of China as a BadActor had been growing proportionally to China's development or better said The Chinese Comprehensive National Strength.
From the 1990s Chinese muted defensive responses to todays tit-for-tat actions a long road has been travelled between the most important Bilateral Relationship in the world.
And here we are racing fast towards the Phase 2 of the Sino-American ColdWar.
Quite frankly, the BemusedObserver was expecting it to go into this 2nd Phase after November this year... but seems like KhooniVirus is, indeed, a Agent of History.
Soon Royal Navy ACC Battle Group will join the Cousins in South China Sea to protect the world oceans from Chinese 'Imperialism' and 'Agression' and to protect, what else, Democracies in the region.
Who knows we might find INS joining in also carrying the Flag of Freedom.
Of course, this is Posturing and Asserting Power by the US led Quad, hanging out near the Chinese shores and calling the Chinese Agressive seems logical!
It is on the surface a Coercion with Naked Naval Power to force the Chinese to Blink First.
For now both sides will try their level best to avoid PhysicalConflict while keep pumping their muscles... NOT for eachother but for the audience in SouthEastAsia and Africa.
Unlike QingChina facing the Naval Armada of the Europeans or Americans... the PRC is more attuned to the Nature of Technology and its Application.
It is NOT About HongKong:
The Hybridwar in HongKong dragged and dragged ... as the TradeWar between America and China was heating up...
Mr. Trump got concessions from China in Phase1 Deal. Hence, it would appear that the Hybridwar would end and things would turn to normal. This was bad judgement from the CPC/PRC!
HongKong is already part of China and all know that it is going to stay that way.
So, why this non-stop coverage of HK 'protestors' and not about PakKashmiris in IoJK?
PakKashmiris were/are calling for their Democratic Rights Granted by UNSC and not some declaration signed between PRC and Britian!
It was/is all about Taiwan!
The Non-stop coverage and scenes of burnings things... police actions... all that jazz was directed at Taiwan and Taiwanese... and it worked!
The good lady got elected for second term in Taiwan and Taiwanese got shocked/scared of the PRC ...thus creating much deeper emtional distance between the province and mainland...
HongKong was/is a Great PysOp and the PRC failed to read it early on.
Now in the Phase 2 of the Sino-US ColdWar TaiwanFront will open for the PRC and PLA.
It is going to be much bigger than HongKong... with Taiwan being forced to choose between the US led CombinedWest and China... as we have seen in case TSMC... a decoupling of Taiwanese Economy from the Mainland might not be that far fetched an idea.
In was surreal way we are back to where we were ... GunBoatDiplomacy... NavalArmada in the Chinese Harbours...
SummerPalace is already burnt... what now?
The US Moves on the Grand Chessboard:
Even before the TradeWar the Chinese Techonolgical Leapfrogging was eating into the established TechnoFeudalHierachy ... and with each passing year the DisruptionFactor of China was growing..
But at the sametime highly leveraged, indebted global corporations were making money out of China operations and could stay afloat or better put could keep the DollarSystem going...
China kept its currency artificially low to keep the magnetic pull of massive-profits for these MNCs going... so apart from soundbites and some visuals a la FONs ... nothing substantial happend or could happen. AsiaPivot or NoAsiaPivot.
The US needed to finance its wars in Kabulistan and Iraq and GWOT ... so nothing substanial could be done... China utilised this US entangelment of quicksands wars... and developed and developed...
NineDashLine became Artificial Islands with PLA troops and instillations... and drilling for Oil n Gas and of course, fishing!
PLAN also became a BlueWaterNavy in this timeframe... from a coastal, brown water navy now boasting two ACC and one soon to come under construction.
We can Frame the US action in any biased manner...but from a BemusedObservation it is just an Existential Struggle for Power...
Who will give up World Power status without a struggle?
The Hurried/Quickening American Actions:
5G and its infrastructure and what is bodes for the IndustrialEconomy 3.0 is lost on no one...
But a Chinese Company becoming the Market/TechLeader and rolling it out in the West or anywhere is a Clear n Present Danger to the TechnoFeudalHierachy that the US has been Leading since the end of WWII.
A Ruthless, take-no-prisoners approach and pressuring everyone/anyone to not use the Huawei 5G tech... forcing TSMC to move to America and cut supply to Huawei or face the music of Sanctions.
Passing Hong Kong Act and related sanctions.... which in fact are directed at the Chinese Banks and will cut them off from the DollarSystem ... is equvilent of MegaTon Nukes in one go.
Although there is a grace period of one year...but that is more for the benefit of American and European/JP/SK banks or DollarSystemBanks than for the benefit of the ChineseBanks.
Xinjiang Sanctions in place. The US is going to put Visa restriction on CPC party memebers and their families... so if some CPC members have stashed wealth in the DollarSystemBanks..they can kiss goodbye to that!
The US, in most clear terms, has now openly challenged the Chinese NineDashLine claim declaring it illegal and void for the US. This after 4 years of the ruling... one wonders why take 4 years for it!!!
On the surface it might appear not to be related to China but the newly announced US Sanctions, Mr. Pompeo worked out some, on NordStream is one big strategic move.
It is even bigger than sending Two ACC Battlegroups to SCS.
Similarly, TurkishStream is coming under sanctions.
These Russian Gas pipeline sanctions are not only going to hurt Russia but Germany and Turkey as well.
Turkey is an Observer at SCO and is an active player in the Med. Libya and Syria! Soon Egypt!!
Germany needs the Nordstream for further integeration of EuropeanUnion and establish itself as the Centre.
Germany is the Chair of EuroPresidency and is working towards EU-China Deal ... which both Europe and China need.
If taken all together the US moves are consolidation of its power by creating Disruption in emerging Geo-Economic Equations which can challenge the US Primacy i.e the DollarSystem.
Mr. BoJo and Mr. Trump/Deepstate want to reshape the EuropeanUnion into their own image... where they keep Germany down and Russia out of Europe!
Quad is Purely an Aglo-Construct ... the same Anglo-Construct that has ruled since WWII ... apart from some French actions in 'French' Africa ... the Anglos are still the Top of Global Power Architecture and they intend to keep it this way.
The Chinese 'Reactions' to American Actions:
On trade deal the Chinese haven't bought anything substantial form the US farmers. Instead it paid more to Brazilian Soy. And still the Chinese purchase is under the agreed levels... this is putting pressure on the AmericanFarmers... the traditional conservative voters.
Tavel sanctions and banking sanctions on the Chinese offiicials was reacted by China by sanctioning a few senators and congressmen. Hence, a rather restrained reaction.
Sanctioning of Boeing is more symbolic...
On HongKong China is moving forward to security law implemtation... and won't care much about what the West has to say.
PLAN did its own exercises in respond to USN but both kept positive distance...again a restrained response from China.
The Sino-Iranian Deal was in the works for sometime now but this is Biggest Reaction from China!
Knowing that the India has gone full Anglo and is full time member of Contain-China-Club ... so move in Ladakh was planned and executed with perfection... exposing the corner-stone of IndoPacificStrategy being unable to utter the word: CHINA!!!
In otherwords, all the investments of the US and its led CombinedWest in India as Counter-to-China or FrontlineState Against China went belly up in GalwanRiver as did the Indian TwoFrontWar Fantasy.
By investing in mega dam projects in Pakistan China in essence has integerated Pakistan into Sino-EconomicShpere as will be Iran soon.
Where is the US Today:
The US economy has been in recession since 2007-8... then the Chinese Massive Stimulus and Infrastructure building pulled the ASEAN and others out of recession, boosting commodity prices... as we have seen in Australia's real estate sector.
But the Fed since then had been QEing to keep the FinancialSystem from Collapse... and in the process have created only debt for the taxe paying Americans who are indebted to their heads.
With the event of $30Trillion Debt coming sooner than later, economic recovery if ever, growing Deficit which will be monitised by the Fed .... 50mln jobless Americans with top 10% holding 80% of the assets/wealth ... the US is now into JapanZone... infinite QE for the Congress Welfare/Re-election projects and keeping the Disconnected Financial Markets inflated with FreeMoney.
The extremely low yield on bonds, rising bankrupties and expanding books on NPLs of major US banks forcing them to have higher LoanProvisions ...
Fed's BalanceSheet expanding... and might cross $10Trillion down the road... Mortgage defaults are increasing... and if the SecondWave of the KhooniVirus hits in the Fall then it could be very dire conditions for common Americans already stressed and now being Woked too!
Comparatively the US banks are a bit better capitalised than EuroZone ones...especially the SouthernEurope ... ECB's going to go on another massive QE binge with ZeroInterestRates.
Japan's Debt to GDP ratio being the Higest in the DollarSystem economies... will remain in this endless QE expansion from BoJ.
DuitsBank holds $44Trillion in Deriviates... has $50+Bln in Captial but its MarketCap is about $10+Bln.... DB is SystemicBank and like other Zombie Corporations in EuroZone is kept alive by the ECB!
Now $1500Trillion Godzilla of Deriviates needs to be kept alive with Cheap/FreeMoney otherwise the entire DollarSystem will collapse and the misery that it will bring to the Entire Planet is unthinkable!
And there is FuturesMarket/Contracts for Gold... coming to fruition soon... the traded volume is so high that it can NEVER be redeemed in PhysicalGold.
At this moment the US and EU are in PrintingMoney and PumpingMoney into the FinancialSystem... withotu audit!!!
With lockdowns and shrunk economies the Velocity of Money has slowed down but the QE is non stop... in other words the Disconnect between The Real Economy and FinancialMarkets has now become unbridgable... creating massive inequalities and social tensions...
The Cleverest Idea of The Masters of the Universe of Financialising Everything/Everyone is the Biggest Bubble in History...which being pumped with infinite QE by the DollarSystem CentralBanks.
This is DEBT.
It needs to be paid back. Keeping the Interests rates low Fed/ECB can make the Servicing of the Debt Cheaper but then the Bonds cann't keep the lower yield forever...
Sometime down the road Interest Rates need to rise to contain the hidden inflation that so much MoneyPrinting has caused... and that will be the Start of Reckoning!
Where is China Today:
China is in a rather tight spot to say the least!
The Chinese Strategy has been to work with the AngloDesignedWorldSystem and gain strength to ever so slowly change it from within... this has helped China to avoid conflicts and keep developing in all areas ... not fully there yet but China has caught up with the West in many areas.
This slow strategy is now has come to an abrupt end because of the US Actions to preserve the US led AngloWorldOrder.
Since, China cann't be like JP or SK or TW ... it makes China automatically a challenger and disruptor of the AngloSystem!
The US deploying the NuclearOption of WeaponisedDollarSystem has China now in a bind that it must untangle... since, many of its big companies have debt obligations for which they need Dollars and the Chinese vast holding of Dollar based Forex are not that vast when seen from the DollarExpulsionStrategy of the US.
Same goes for the T-Bills. Even if China sell them now... it won't make a dent. It will be bought by the FreeMoney!
By not forcefully pushing the internationalisation of Yuan China has to ForceMarch now to achieve this is... at least within its ImportSpectrum... through DigitalYuan.
All of the Chinese loans to other countries need to be converted into Yuan and be redeemed in Yuan as well...but then again Threat of Sanctions from the US to such countries will be a challenge..since, China doesn't have a Parallel to Swift on global scale.
The Target of Decoupling is massive unrest within China and the Decoupling has started in practice with the US sanctions on the Chinese banking sector.
If China de-pegs Yuan from Dollar then its currency will rise making its exports expensive hence retarding its GDP growth.
Post-Pandemic Economic Reset will see massive ripping off of current Global Trading/Financial Architecture ... pushing China to move faster to come up with a counter.. For now no such possibility/policy is visible.
The Chinese Savings need a better outlet than realestate or autos ... herein there is nothing visible in form of an Investment Vehicle which can provide predictable and stable returns... China has not yet fully utilised the SavingsCapital.
Despite being biggest consumer/importer of energy China hasnt been able to create a PetroDollar type system of trading, contracting and account-settling.
To say that China is NOT under extreme pressure would be a folly.
The US has in essence put the DollarSystemGun on the Chinese temple and is waiting for the Chinese Counter move.
It is imperative to recognise that the US is still the Undisputed Leader in MilitaryTechnology and any underestimation of it would be deadly.
However, the US will also not start a ShootingWar with China or Russia despite Pentagon's Fantasies about First Decapitation Strikes...
Unlike the Coldwar 1.0 this Sino-US ColdWar 3.0 is far more complex, far more entertwinted and spread over Eurasia, Americas and Africa.
The US has come to its Last NuclearOption of WeaponisedDollarSystem.
China knew this day will come but on the surface there appears to be no move from China to counter it.
Unlike USSR ... China is the Biggest ConsumerMarket and Biggest TraddingNation, The BiggestCreditor and Techonologically Not that far behind the CombinedWest...
Sancitons on China is the Biggest Gamble by the US.... if it doesn't work... then it shall be the US which killed the DollarSystem!
The War between FinancialCapitalism and ProductionCapitalism is war of Survival of Two Systems.
The BemusedObserver can only watch!
Mangus
PS. Leaving Asia on its own, with its True Sovereignity, is not an option for The Empire!
More BlackSwans and GreyRhinos for every player await. It has begun!!!
@jaibi @Slav Defence @Blacklight @Signalian @PanzerKiel @Shotgunner51 @Chinese-Dragon @siegecrossbow @Deino @dbc @masterchief_mirza @Ace of Spades @LeGenD @Arsalan @PakSword @WebMaster @Horus @krash @Moonlight @vi-va @OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ @StormBreaker @HRK
QingChina running a trade surplus, with its own banking system and massive productivity gains in farming.... it could exist on its own... trading the surplus with EastAsia, SouthEastAsia and CentralAsia was enough for a rich and stable continent sized country!
Unbeknown to the QingChina... the CombinedWest had made IndustrialAdvance ... hence, the ability to impose its Policy through Naval/MilitaryPower...
The CombinedWest was out to conquer the world ... QingChina was happy within, having no need of the without.
Opium for Silver. FairTrade?
To America's credit Americans were only controlling 10% of the OpiumTrade with China while the British ruled the roost with their Opium supply-lines from BritishIndia to ChineseHarbours.
HongKong Taken at GunPoint. HSBC could manifest!
QingChina was ready for Disorder Under the Heavens ... Warlords... one even called himself Jesus's younger-brother ... as he was a convert... Engineered Choas of Hybridwar on the QingChina continued till the CPC chased out the KMT.
[Leaving out the Japanese part out for later]
History Reapting or Not so quite?
"Let China sleep, for when she awakes, she will shake the world" - French General was right on the mark it seems.
Before diving in the new twists and turns of the Last Sino-US Tango and their broader/global implications ... perhaps, it is valuable to revisit the Framing of China by the US and US led CombinedWest:
- CurrencyManipulator.
- UnfairTrader.
- IP Theft.
- Industrial Espionage.
- AsiaPivot.
- Freedom of Navigation Patrols.
- Concerts of Democracies.
- IndoPacificFreedom.
- Quad.
- Human Rights Violator.
- MuslimOppressor.
- SlaveLabourCamps.
- RevisionistPower.
- ExpansionistEmpire.
- Tibet
- Xinjiang
- Democracy in HongKong
- Democracy in Taiwan
>>The question would be silly and useless to pose that why in one place there is so much agony for the lives and freedoms of Muslims and in other places it is not??<<
Why Xinjiang gets all the US-Love and NOT the PakKashmiris of IoJK?
Obiviously, Geopolitics of the GreatPowers is about Power and using any issue to their advantage... the mantras of Freedom, Liberty and HumanRights ... are just PolicyInstruements same as an ACC.
500.000 Iraqi children dead was Worth It !!! - Ms. Albright
It is the Nature of Power to be Dark and Heartless.... it is what it is!
Since, Mr. Cliton's time the Framing of China as a BadActor had been growing proportionally to China's development or better said The Chinese Comprehensive National Strength.
From the 1990s Chinese muted defensive responses to todays tit-for-tat actions a long road has been travelled between the most important Bilateral Relationship in the world.
And here we are racing fast towards the Phase 2 of the Sino-American ColdWar.
Quite frankly, the BemusedObserver was expecting it to go into this 2nd Phase after November this year... but seems like KhooniVirus is, indeed, a Agent of History.
Soon Royal Navy ACC Battle Group will join the Cousins in South China Sea to protect the world oceans from Chinese 'Imperialism' and 'Agression' and to protect, what else, Democracies in the region.
Who knows we might find INS joining in also carrying the Flag of Freedom.
Of course, this is Posturing and Asserting Power by the US led Quad, hanging out near the Chinese shores and calling the Chinese Agressive seems logical!
It is on the surface a Coercion with Naked Naval Power to force the Chinese to Blink First.
For now both sides will try their level best to avoid PhysicalConflict while keep pumping their muscles... NOT for eachother but for the audience in SouthEastAsia and Africa.
Unlike QingChina facing the Naval Armada of the Europeans or Americans... the PRC is more attuned to the Nature of Technology and its Application.
It is NOT About HongKong:
The Hybridwar in HongKong dragged and dragged ... as the TradeWar between America and China was heating up...
Mr. Trump got concessions from China in Phase1 Deal. Hence, it would appear that the Hybridwar would end and things would turn to normal. This was bad judgement from the CPC/PRC!
HongKong is already part of China and all know that it is going to stay that way.
So, why this non-stop coverage of HK 'protestors' and not about PakKashmiris in IoJK?
PakKashmiris were/are calling for their Democratic Rights Granted by UNSC and not some declaration signed between PRC and Britian!
It was/is all about Taiwan!
The Non-stop coverage and scenes of burnings things... police actions... all that jazz was directed at Taiwan and Taiwanese... and it worked!
The good lady got elected for second term in Taiwan and Taiwanese got shocked/scared of the PRC ...thus creating much deeper emtional distance between the province and mainland...
HongKong was/is a Great PysOp and the PRC failed to read it early on.
Now in the Phase 2 of the Sino-US ColdWar TaiwanFront will open for the PRC and PLA.
It is going to be much bigger than HongKong... with Taiwan being forced to choose between the US led CombinedWest and China... as we have seen in case TSMC... a decoupling of Taiwanese Economy from the Mainland might not be that far fetched an idea.
In was surreal way we are back to where we were ... GunBoatDiplomacy... NavalArmada in the Chinese Harbours...
SummerPalace is already burnt... what now?
The US Moves on the Grand Chessboard:
Even before the TradeWar the Chinese Techonolgical Leapfrogging was eating into the established TechnoFeudalHierachy ... and with each passing year the DisruptionFactor of China was growing..
But at the sametime highly leveraged, indebted global corporations were making money out of China operations and could stay afloat or better put could keep the DollarSystem going...
China kept its currency artificially low to keep the magnetic pull of massive-profits for these MNCs going... so apart from soundbites and some visuals a la FONs ... nothing substantial happend or could happen. AsiaPivot or NoAsiaPivot.
The US needed to finance its wars in Kabulistan and Iraq and GWOT ... so nothing substanial could be done... China utilised this US entangelment of quicksands wars... and developed and developed...
NineDashLine became Artificial Islands with PLA troops and instillations... and drilling for Oil n Gas and of course, fishing!
PLAN also became a BlueWaterNavy in this timeframe... from a coastal, brown water navy now boasting two ACC and one soon to come under construction.
We can Frame the US action in any biased manner...but from a BemusedObservation it is just an Existential Struggle for Power...
Who will give up World Power status without a struggle?
The Hurried/Quickening American Actions:
5G and its infrastructure and what is bodes for the IndustrialEconomy 3.0 is lost on no one...
But a Chinese Company becoming the Market/TechLeader and rolling it out in the West or anywhere is a Clear n Present Danger to the TechnoFeudalHierachy that the US has been Leading since the end of WWII.
A Ruthless, take-no-prisoners approach and pressuring everyone/anyone to not use the Huawei 5G tech... forcing TSMC to move to America and cut supply to Huawei or face the music of Sanctions.
Passing Hong Kong Act and related sanctions.... which in fact are directed at the Chinese Banks and will cut them off from the DollarSystem ... is equvilent of MegaTon Nukes in one go.
Although there is a grace period of one year...but that is more for the benefit of American and European/JP/SK banks or DollarSystemBanks than for the benefit of the ChineseBanks.
Xinjiang Sanctions in place. The US is going to put Visa restriction on CPC party memebers and their families... so if some CPC members have stashed wealth in the DollarSystemBanks..they can kiss goodbye to that!
The US, in most clear terms, has now openly challenged the Chinese NineDashLine claim declaring it illegal and void for the US. This after 4 years of the ruling... one wonders why take 4 years for it!!!
On the surface it might appear not to be related to China but the newly announced US Sanctions, Mr. Pompeo worked out some, on NordStream is one big strategic move.
It is even bigger than sending Two ACC Battlegroups to SCS.
Similarly, TurkishStream is coming under sanctions.
These Russian Gas pipeline sanctions are not only going to hurt Russia but Germany and Turkey as well.
Turkey is an Observer at SCO and is an active player in the Med. Libya and Syria! Soon Egypt!!
Germany needs the Nordstream for further integeration of EuropeanUnion and establish itself as the Centre.
Germany is the Chair of EuroPresidency and is working towards EU-China Deal ... which both Europe and China need.
If taken all together the US moves are consolidation of its power by creating Disruption in emerging Geo-Economic Equations which can challenge the US Primacy i.e the DollarSystem.
Mr. BoJo and Mr. Trump/Deepstate want to reshape the EuropeanUnion into their own image... where they keep Germany down and Russia out of Europe!
Quad is Purely an Aglo-Construct ... the same Anglo-Construct that has ruled since WWII ... apart from some French actions in 'French' Africa ... the Anglos are still the Top of Global Power Architecture and they intend to keep it this way.
The Chinese 'Reactions' to American Actions:
On trade deal the Chinese haven't bought anything substantial form the US farmers. Instead it paid more to Brazilian Soy. And still the Chinese purchase is under the agreed levels... this is putting pressure on the AmericanFarmers... the traditional conservative voters.
Tavel sanctions and banking sanctions on the Chinese offiicials was reacted by China by sanctioning a few senators and congressmen. Hence, a rather restrained reaction.
Sanctioning of Boeing is more symbolic...
On HongKong China is moving forward to security law implemtation... and won't care much about what the West has to say.
PLAN did its own exercises in respond to USN but both kept positive distance...again a restrained response from China.
The Sino-Iranian Deal was in the works for sometime now but this is Biggest Reaction from China!
Knowing that the India has gone full Anglo and is full time member of Contain-China-Club ... so move in Ladakh was planned and executed with perfection... exposing the corner-stone of IndoPacificStrategy being unable to utter the word: CHINA!!!
In otherwords, all the investments of the US and its led CombinedWest in India as Counter-to-China or FrontlineState Against China went belly up in GalwanRiver as did the Indian TwoFrontWar Fantasy.
By investing in mega dam projects in Pakistan China in essence has integerated Pakistan into Sino-EconomicShpere as will be Iran soon.
Where is the US Today:
The US economy has been in recession since 2007-8... then the Chinese Massive Stimulus and Infrastructure building pulled the ASEAN and others out of recession, boosting commodity prices... as we have seen in Australia's real estate sector.
But the Fed since then had been QEing to keep the FinancialSystem from Collapse... and in the process have created only debt for the taxe paying Americans who are indebted to their heads.
With the event of $30Trillion Debt coming sooner than later, economic recovery if ever, growing Deficit which will be monitised by the Fed .... 50mln jobless Americans with top 10% holding 80% of the assets/wealth ... the US is now into JapanZone... infinite QE for the Congress Welfare/Re-election projects and keeping the Disconnected Financial Markets inflated with FreeMoney.
The extremely low yield on bonds, rising bankrupties and expanding books on NPLs of major US banks forcing them to have higher LoanProvisions ...
Fed's BalanceSheet expanding... and might cross $10Trillion down the road... Mortgage defaults are increasing... and if the SecondWave of the KhooniVirus hits in the Fall then it could be very dire conditions for common Americans already stressed and now being Woked too!
Comparatively the US banks are a bit better capitalised than EuroZone ones...especially the SouthernEurope ... ECB's going to go on another massive QE binge with ZeroInterestRates.
Japan's Debt to GDP ratio being the Higest in the DollarSystem economies... will remain in this endless QE expansion from BoJ.
DuitsBank holds $44Trillion in Deriviates... has $50+Bln in Captial but its MarketCap is about $10+Bln.... DB is SystemicBank and like other Zombie Corporations in EuroZone is kept alive by the ECB!
Now $1500Trillion Godzilla of Deriviates needs to be kept alive with Cheap/FreeMoney otherwise the entire DollarSystem will collapse and the misery that it will bring to the Entire Planet is unthinkable!
And there is FuturesMarket/Contracts for Gold... coming to fruition soon... the traded volume is so high that it can NEVER be redeemed in PhysicalGold.
At this moment the US and EU are in PrintingMoney and PumpingMoney into the FinancialSystem... withotu audit!!!
With lockdowns and shrunk economies the Velocity of Money has slowed down but the QE is non stop... in other words the Disconnect between The Real Economy and FinancialMarkets has now become unbridgable... creating massive inequalities and social tensions...
The Cleverest Idea of The Masters of the Universe of Financialising Everything/Everyone is the Biggest Bubble in History...which being pumped with infinite QE by the DollarSystem CentralBanks.
This is DEBT.
It needs to be paid back. Keeping the Interests rates low Fed/ECB can make the Servicing of the Debt Cheaper but then the Bonds cann't keep the lower yield forever...
Sometime down the road Interest Rates need to rise to contain the hidden inflation that so much MoneyPrinting has caused... and that will be the Start of Reckoning!
Where is China Today:
China is in a rather tight spot to say the least!
The Chinese Strategy has been to work with the AngloDesignedWorldSystem and gain strength to ever so slowly change it from within... this has helped China to avoid conflicts and keep developing in all areas ... not fully there yet but China has caught up with the West in many areas.
This slow strategy is now has come to an abrupt end because of the US Actions to preserve the US led AngloWorldOrder.
Since, China cann't be like JP or SK or TW ... it makes China automatically a challenger and disruptor of the AngloSystem!
The US deploying the NuclearOption of WeaponisedDollarSystem has China now in a bind that it must untangle... since, many of its big companies have debt obligations for which they need Dollars and the Chinese vast holding of Dollar based Forex are not that vast when seen from the DollarExpulsionStrategy of the US.
Same goes for the T-Bills. Even if China sell them now... it won't make a dent. It will be bought by the FreeMoney!
By not forcefully pushing the internationalisation of Yuan China has to ForceMarch now to achieve this is... at least within its ImportSpectrum... through DigitalYuan.
All of the Chinese loans to other countries need to be converted into Yuan and be redeemed in Yuan as well...but then again Threat of Sanctions from the US to such countries will be a challenge..since, China doesn't have a Parallel to Swift on global scale.
The Target of Decoupling is massive unrest within China and the Decoupling has started in practice with the US sanctions on the Chinese banking sector.
If China de-pegs Yuan from Dollar then its currency will rise making its exports expensive hence retarding its GDP growth.
Post-Pandemic Economic Reset will see massive ripping off of current Global Trading/Financial Architecture ... pushing China to move faster to come up with a counter.. For now no such possibility/policy is visible.
The Chinese Savings need a better outlet than realestate or autos ... herein there is nothing visible in form of an Investment Vehicle which can provide predictable and stable returns... China has not yet fully utilised the SavingsCapital.
Despite being biggest consumer/importer of energy China hasnt been able to create a PetroDollar type system of trading, contracting and account-settling.
To say that China is NOT under extreme pressure would be a folly.
The US has in essence put the DollarSystemGun on the Chinese temple and is waiting for the Chinese Counter move.
It is imperative to recognise that the US is still the Undisputed Leader in MilitaryTechnology and any underestimation of it would be deadly.
However, the US will also not start a ShootingWar with China or Russia despite Pentagon's Fantasies about First Decapitation Strikes...
Unlike the Coldwar 1.0 this Sino-US ColdWar 3.0 is far more complex, far more entertwinted and spread over Eurasia, Americas and Africa.
The US has come to its Last NuclearOption of WeaponisedDollarSystem.
China knew this day will come but on the surface there appears to be no move from China to counter it.
Unlike USSR ... China is the Biggest ConsumerMarket and Biggest TraddingNation, The BiggestCreditor and Techonologically Not that far behind the CombinedWest...
Sancitons on China is the Biggest Gamble by the US.... if it doesn't work... then it shall be the US which killed the DollarSystem!
The War between FinancialCapitalism and ProductionCapitalism is war of Survival of Two Systems.
The BemusedObserver can only watch!
Mangus
PS. Leaving Asia on its own, with its True Sovereignity, is not an option for The Empire!
More BlackSwans and GreyRhinos for every player await. It has begun!!!
@jaibi @Slav Defence @Blacklight @Signalian @PanzerKiel @Shotgunner51 @Chinese-Dragon @siegecrossbow @Deino @dbc @masterchief_mirza @Ace of Spades @LeGenD @Arsalan @PakSword @WebMaster @Horus @krash @Moonlight @vi-va @OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ @StormBreaker @HRK
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LeGenD
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Bro,
A few points.
1. Global economic activity including American is in recession due to COVID-19 pandemic. This particular bout of global recession is identified as the "coronavirus downturn." When the cure will emerge, global economic activity will rebounce to large extent - a large number of brilliant minds at work worldwide. A small number of countries will remain in trouble due to SANCTIONS factor nevertheless.
2. Unemployment has understandably become a GLOBAL issue lately in large part due to "coronavirus downturn," but a number of countries are not documenting this issue; cross-country comparisons are useless by extension. When global economic activity will rebounce, unemployment will go down accordingly.
3. DEBT is a global 'problem' if you wish to consider it as one.
DEBT is an integral component of the modern economic system. It should be recorded in the books, and it does not make or break a country (see Japan); it is, however, important to be in the position to fulfill DEBT-related obligations which is not a problem for USA.
American DEBT is very high because of the ongoing buying-and-selling of American T-bonds worldwide:
This dynamic is similar to bonds floated by the banks to "generate revenue." Americans get the money, others get to keep the bonds. These can be resold - no issue.
American DEBT is not like that of developing countries warranting IMF bailout packages to make ends meet. Look at the situation of Pakistan for instance (about 50% of GDP ???) needing IMF bailout packages to sustain its economic activity.
4. The world is changing - true. However, CHANGE does not necessarily translate into DOOM.
The world is becoming MULTI-POLAR again; this time with several big players in the field. Americans use the term 'great power competition' to describe this emerging dynamic. They are coming to terms with this reality and preparing accordingly.
The emerging New World Order might be better for some of the lesser countries because they will have 'options' to sustain themselves using different "anchors."
Let us see.
A few points.
1. Global economic activity including American is in recession due to COVID-19 pandemic. This particular bout of global recession is identified as the "coronavirus downturn." When the cure will emerge, global economic activity will rebounce to large extent - a large number of brilliant minds at work worldwide. A small number of countries will remain in trouble due to SANCTIONS factor nevertheless.
2. Unemployment has understandably become a GLOBAL issue lately in large part due to "coronavirus downturn," but a number of countries are not documenting this issue; cross-country comparisons are useless by extension. When global economic activity will rebounce, unemployment will go down accordingly.
3. DEBT is a global 'problem' if you wish to consider it as one.
DEBT is an integral component of the modern economic system. It should be recorded in the books, and it does not make or break a country (see Japan); it is, however, important to be in the position to fulfill DEBT-related obligations which is not a problem for USA.
American DEBT is very high because of the ongoing buying-and-selling of American T-bonds worldwide:
This dynamic is similar to bonds floated by the banks to "generate revenue." Americans get the money, others get to keep the bonds. These can be resold - no issue.
American DEBT is not like that of developing countries warranting IMF bailout packages to make ends meet. Look at the situation of Pakistan for instance (about 50% of GDP ???) needing IMF bailout packages to sustain its economic activity.
4. The world is changing - true. However, CHANGE does not necessarily translate into DOOM.
The world is becoming MULTI-POLAR again; this time with several big players in the field. Americans use the term 'great power competition' to describe this emerging dynamic. They are coming to terms with this reality and preparing accordingly.
The emerging New World Order might be better for some of the lesser countries because they will have 'options' to sustain themselves using different "anchors."
Let us see.
vi-va
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Ace of Spades
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Kudos... a beautiful and elegant write up. Just brilliant!!
vi-va
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Worth reading again.
OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ
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Excellent effort and analysis!
It is exactly because of this debt sword hanging over the world that I have been of the opinion that, the coming collapse will be detrimental to humanity at large. The illusion of "prosperity" created by this debt is catching up very fast and we are at the pinnacle of this bubble.
Fact is, and as you have noted previously demographics are the ultimate trump card... debt induced prosperity/burden obligated a certain form of society, a family or lack thereof, couples delayed having children and all sorts of justifications and theories were surmised to understand it except for the real and overarching. Beneficiaries of the system thought the bubble will never end... I guess they for the most part lived through it
Since, it has been concluded at this point that demographics henceforth are in permanent decline, the debt burden therefore is much greater on coming generations especially keeping up the consumer habits of previous generations and with automation even keeping them gainfully employed... the matrix henceforth is greater number of desk jockeys unable to justify or their own positions much less job description.
China therefore, and as we know inevitably will top the chart but only briefly, who knows how long. Which brings me to the heartland and BRI and here is something tangible but Pakistan remains a bystander, an onlooker, an observer and a client. The lack of ambition or muffled aspirations is nauseating... the philosophy behind JF-17 says it all ... secure the homeland. It is not a weapon of projection less to secure Kashmir or even create/secure Pakistan's near abroad.
At the end of the day, Pakistan gets a once in centuries opportunity created solely by it's demographic and totally unintentionally to create it's own niche! All it needs is someone with a direction and ambition. Or, a rudderless leadership will squander this dividend and Pakistan will remain subject to foreign intervention and it's population useful labor for someone else with ambition!
vi-va
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There’s no Cold War with China — and if there were, we couldn’t win
An honor guard raises the Chinese flag at the commissioning of an aircraft carrier at a naval port in Sanya, China, last year. (Li Gang/Xinhua via AP)
Opinion by Dan Coats
July 29, 2020 at 2:53 a.m. GMT+8
Dan Coats, a former U.S. senator from Indiana, served as director of national intelligence from 2017 to 2019. He is a senior adviser to King & Spalding LLP.
China dominates current discussions of foreign policy, primarily because it poses the greatest challenges to our national interests. But China also dominates the discussion because the covid-19 pandemic emerged there, a fact that has become a major theme in the President Trump’s campaign for reelection. The trade relationship seems to be deteriorating along with the political relationship — which the Chinese foreign minister has described as worse than at any point since we established diplomatic relations in 1979.
All this has many observers — even in the White House — speaking of a new “Cold War” between the United States and China. Some even argue that this is desirable, presumably with the belief that our side will naturally emerge victorious.
Yet the phrase is a misleading one. It assumes that the terms of the old Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States, which we fought and won, are relevant, and that the tools used successfully then could be used again now.
This conceptual error ignores the many differences between then and now. It is worth recalling that the Soviet Union was not our major trading partner, was not a major holder of our debt and was not tightly interconnected in the supply chains critical to our (and the world’s) economy.
The Cold War was fought and won pretty much exclusively on military and cultural terms. The economic side was relevant only because the Soviets' doomed model inhibited any real competition. We were neither competitors nor partners in the economic space. A new Cold War between the United States and China would be something else entirely. It is difficult to see how it could be fought effectively, not to mention successfully.
This is by no means to question the need to respond to increasingly aggressive behavior by China. But the U.S. response must be coherent, disciplined and sophisticated. It must balance capabilities and objectives. Reverting to a Cold War mentality will drive us toward belligerent posturing that has little or no chance of changing Chinese behavior and could, on the contrary, provoke overreactions and dangerous miscalculations on both sides.
Above all, we must create a deliberate strategy that is aimed at managing this great-power conflict rather than vanquishing a foe. This is very hard work, requiring patience, conviction and broad political support. It also requires the full participation of our allies, both in the region and elsewhere. We must undertake these efforts with the imperative of preventing a downward spiral toward armed conflict.
Too often, U.S. policy toward China seems to be motivated by the urge to score points for short-term political benefit. Yet the Chinese are clearly pursuing their foreign policy goals according to a carefully calculated long-term strategy.
That Chinese long game was defined first by Xi Jinping’s successful internal campaign to secure the regime’s survival, which has now positioned him at the head of an explicitly totalitarian state. Beijing’s long-term strategy also includes an extremely ambitious foreign policy agenda, aimed first at shifting the center of the world economy to Eurasia through the Belt and Road Initiative.
At the same time, China is pursuing increasingly aggressive territorial ambitions, including the clear intention to absorb Taiwan into the People’s Republic. Our decades-long coherent management of this issue is increasingly challenged.
China’s strategy also aims to encircle the West technologically, dominating all the advanced systems of data collection and manipulation, including artificial intelligence, robotics, aerospace and quantum computing, always taking into account potential military applications. China has recognized, far earlier and far more clearly than any of the rest of us, that technology is the determining factor in the decisive battle of this moment in history. Beijing is working hard to create an overwhelming Chinese advantage in this battle. We must win this conflict with coherent strategies and, crucially, by cultivating the support of allies.
In response to these and other challenges, the rest of the world, hopefully led once again by the United States, must respond with unity and long-range vision. Nearly spontaneous and seemingly unconnected irritations such as closing a consulate, imposing sanctions on a few officials, tweaking tariffs or sanctioning individual companies merely provoke countermeasures that will inhibit real management of this immense and complicated problem.
Most importantly, policies by the United States and our allies must be aimed at expanding the diplomatic and political space to work these issues creatively and productively. This will take time. And it will also require the rebuilding of alliance cohesion and multilateral institutions capable of responding to China’s long-term strategic vision with policies of comparable coherence and strength. As we know from the past, only the United States can forge those tools. Our allies and other like-minded nations are beginning to recognize the threats China poses to our common future. They will become increasingly receptive to enlightened leadership from the United States.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/28/new-cold-war-between-us-china-is-dangerous-myth/
An honor guard raises the Chinese flag at the commissioning of an aircraft carrier at a naval port in Sanya, China, last year. (Li Gang/Xinhua via AP)
Opinion by Dan Coats
July 29, 2020 at 2:53 a.m. GMT+8
Dan Coats, a former U.S. senator from Indiana, served as director of national intelligence from 2017 to 2019. He is a senior adviser to King & Spalding LLP.
China dominates current discussions of foreign policy, primarily because it poses the greatest challenges to our national interests. But China also dominates the discussion because the covid-19 pandemic emerged there, a fact that has become a major theme in the President Trump’s campaign for reelection. The trade relationship seems to be deteriorating along with the political relationship — which the Chinese foreign minister has described as worse than at any point since we established diplomatic relations in 1979.
All this has many observers — even in the White House — speaking of a new “Cold War” between the United States and China. Some even argue that this is desirable, presumably with the belief that our side will naturally emerge victorious.
Yet the phrase is a misleading one. It assumes that the terms of the old Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States, which we fought and won, are relevant, and that the tools used successfully then could be used again now.
This conceptual error ignores the many differences between then and now. It is worth recalling that the Soviet Union was not our major trading partner, was not a major holder of our debt and was not tightly interconnected in the supply chains critical to our (and the world’s) economy.
The Cold War was fought and won pretty much exclusively on military and cultural terms. The economic side was relevant only because the Soviets' doomed model inhibited any real competition. We were neither competitors nor partners in the economic space. A new Cold War between the United States and China would be something else entirely. It is difficult to see how it could be fought effectively, not to mention successfully.
This is by no means to question the need to respond to increasingly aggressive behavior by China. But the U.S. response must be coherent, disciplined and sophisticated. It must balance capabilities and objectives. Reverting to a Cold War mentality will drive us toward belligerent posturing that has little or no chance of changing Chinese behavior and could, on the contrary, provoke overreactions and dangerous miscalculations on both sides.
Above all, we must create a deliberate strategy that is aimed at managing this great-power conflict rather than vanquishing a foe. This is very hard work, requiring patience, conviction and broad political support. It also requires the full participation of our allies, both in the region and elsewhere. We must undertake these efforts with the imperative of preventing a downward spiral toward armed conflict.
Too often, U.S. policy toward China seems to be motivated by the urge to score points for short-term political benefit. Yet the Chinese are clearly pursuing their foreign policy goals according to a carefully calculated long-term strategy.
That Chinese long game was defined first by Xi Jinping’s successful internal campaign to secure the regime’s survival, which has now positioned him at the head of an explicitly totalitarian state. Beijing’s long-term strategy also includes an extremely ambitious foreign policy agenda, aimed first at shifting the center of the world economy to Eurasia through the Belt and Road Initiative.
At the same time, China is pursuing increasingly aggressive territorial ambitions, including the clear intention to absorb Taiwan into the People’s Republic. Our decades-long coherent management of this issue is increasingly challenged.
China’s strategy also aims to encircle the West technologically, dominating all the advanced systems of data collection and manipulation, including artificial intelligence, robotics, aerospace and quantum computing, always taking into account potential military applications. China has recognized, far earlier and far more clearly than any of the rest of us, that technology is the determining factor in the decisive battle of this moment in history. Beijing is working hard to create an overwhelming Chinese advantage in this battle. We must win this conflict with coherent strategies and, crucially, by cultivating the support of allies.
In response to these and other challenges, the rest of the world, hopefully led once again by the United States, must respond with unity and long-range vision. Nearly spontaneous and seemingly unconnected irritations such as closing a consulate, imposing sanctions on a few officials, tweaking tariffs or sanctioning individual companies merely provoke countermeasures that will inhibit real management of this immense and complicated problem.
Most importantly, policies by the United States and our allies must be aimed at expanding the diplomatic and political space to work these issues creatively and productively. This will take time. And it will also require the rebuilding of alliance cohesion and multilateral institutions capable of responding to China’s long-term strategic vision with policies of comparable coherence and strength. As we know from the past, only the United States can forge those tools. Our allies and other like-minded nations are beginning to recognize the threats China poses to our common future. They will become increasingly receptive to enlightened leadership from the United States.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/28/new-cold-war-between-us-china-is-dangerous-myth/
Neither Trump's way nor Biden's or establishment's way will work.
Trump tries to use populism at the cost of allies' support. So he naturally loses the allies.
Biden can hardly get the US government to pay the allies substantially for fighting China as the US is already on the way to a total bankruptcy.
Trump tries to use populism at the cost of allies' support. So he naturally loses the allies.
Biden can hardly get the US government to pay the allies substantially for fighting China as the US is already on the way to a total bankruptcy.
vi-va
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US by and large missed the chance to contain China.
merzifonlu
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"Cultivating the support of allies"? Good joke. What the USA does is the opposite kind of thing. She alienates even allies of USA. I can say this as a citizen of Turkey. With this mindset, she will only defeat profusely...
crankthatskunk
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Just a question. Your PM thinking that Indian's way would succeed!!
Sineva
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For the chumpenfuhrer this has nothing to do with "cultivating the support of allies",this is purely about giving orders to his vassals and threatening nasty consequences if they are not obeyed to his satisfaction.
I dont think that in the entire history of america as a functioning political entity has there ever been a political figure[chump does not deserve to even be called a politician]less capable and less equipped to do the task that he has been given.
The best,and indeed most accurate [as well as the most damning] description of the chump regime that I`ve ever come across was this one:
"The trump presidency is americas experiment in governance through non-governance."
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