The best solution is a confederation of Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Afghanistan and the six former Muslim republics of Soviet Union. This would only happen with the support of Russia / China. It will have a domestic market of nearly 500 million people and a potential of 10 Trillion USD. It will have a huge land mass as being the third Largest country (landwise) and a third most populated country.
All such projections including the one I made are of course exercises in imagination. But its good to consider different possible scenario:
1. Eurasian Union with all former Soviet Republics (including 5 stans) + Mongolia +Iran + Afghan + Pakistan
2.
- Eurasian Union with all former Soviet Republics (including 5 stans) + Mongolia
- Turkey+Iran+Afghan+Pakistan
3.
- Eurasian Union + Mongolia - 5 Central Asian stans - Azerbaijan
- Turkey+Iran+Afghan+Pakistan+5stans+Azerbaijan
What you have proposed is No. 3, while I have proposed No. 1. But No. 2 is more likely than No. 3.
Reasons:
- former Soviet states such as 5 Central Asian stans and Azerbaijan in Caucasus region are Russianized, Russian speaking and have long history of Russia influence
- even before Soviet Union, they used to be part of Russian empire:
Russian Empire - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
- all of them are still kind of satellite states or vassal states of Russia
- many of them have significant Russian population, although diminishing with time. Kazakhstan still has the largest number of ethnic Russians, about 24%
Considering the above, these states are unlikely to leave their mother ship of state, Russian federation.
So instead of No. 3, No. 2 scenario is more likely. But that too has certain problems:
- Turkey is an integral part of NATO since its formation
- Pakistan is a major non-NATO ally
- Afghanistan may remain a non-NATO ally, depending on future govt. after the US leaves, but it may not, many are predicting a civil war with unpredictable result
- Iran is the more serious problem here, as it is absolutely hostile to NATO, especially the current theocratic regime and the regime will probably continue for the foreseeable future
So Iran is going to be the stumbling block for scenario No. 2
Now if we consider scenario No. 1, Turkey is excluded as it is a part of NATO, while the rest can be brought within SCO umbrella. So all these states nicely fit together only in this arrangement of scenario No. 1. A potential problem is Pakistan's status as non-NATO ally of the US, but this is a special case because of the need to go into Afghanistan. Once Afghanistan is stabilized and Pakistan has potential to be less troubled by extremism and has the possibility to become more stable, then the US should have no objection to see it become a part of this new Eurasian Union.
An integrated region will be good for China, India, Turkey, GCC+ and EU, as they will now be able to trade goods, energy etc. from this vast region, without hindrance or hassles of so many borders between existing nation states.
As part of NATO, Turkey will have more synergy with NATO ally and protected GCC+ (Arab states within Asian continent)
The other important consideration for these regional union ideas is to have at least one member state with a mature industrial base. Only Russian federation at this moment fits this category, while Turkey is on its way, although still 1-2 decades away. So from this perspective also No.1 makes more sense.
These regional unions may not become permanent arrangements. Lets say in scenario No. 1, once Muslim states like Iran together with 5 stans are able to function as a mature industrial base, then the Muslim part can break off while the Christian part could join the EU, 4-5 decades later. But my guess is that 4-5 decades later, religion may not dictate geopolitics as much as it does today.
