What's new

India serves 90 day notice to Pakistan on Indus Water Treaty!

Physics fail..... but that is expected...

Flow rate of a river vs carrying capacity of dams? Look it up...

Just flow rate of Indus river:
195400 cu ft/ s

Kishenganga capacity: 648000000 cu ft.

So one Kishenganga holds water worth 55.27 min of water of Indus. 30 dams will hold water worth 30× 55mins ~ roughly 30 hours of average flow.

For India to accumulate even 1% of Indus rivers avg discharge, India will need to build 95 such dams....
( @SQ8 @VCheng feel free to correct the numbers if i have fat fingered any of them. )

And thus the nauseating amusement of horrid logic... poor reading and lack of basic comprehension.
Good numbers ...
But an exact and careful analysis shall be required , but your methodology is good.

If we take a min flow as climate change has devastating effects..
Let's suppose a min flow of 200000 cu ft/s,
100 such dams shall take 6 years.
And if you add dams they are building on tributaries, flow to Indus, chenab, jehlum, neelum, will be further reduced.
I do not know how many dams Pakistan has inspected.

Notwithstanding, would Pakistan go to war if India build HP Storage dams?

IWT gives Pakistan shares from Ravi, sutlej, and Bayas too. Does India leaves any water there?
 
I said it because it's literally international law, not merely feelings.

India has for literally since the beginning tried to break Pakistan. This isn't paranoia, this happened once already. Kashmir isn't the only land India stole from Pakistan.

The war on terror destroyed Pakistan's economy, with India sabotaging it as well by funding terrorists along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan.

Once again, all of this is well documented, which is why I keep seeing that you refuse to refute the claims made.

It is not Pakistan who is obsessed with Kashmir, it is India. Your nation has a million soldiers in the region, not to combat Pakistan but rather to suppress the natives. India talks more about Kashmir than Pakistan does.
I had the impression you see things clearly but disappointed with your narrative. You are touting the same line that your political parties been saying for past decade or two. You guys said the same thing when we had functioning embassies in Afghanistan and now, when we have none. India does not need cross border jihadists who are creating mayhem in J&K. Without this baggage we would be growing at far higher rate of growth.
 
I had the impression you see things clearly but disappointed with your narrative. You are touting the same line that your political parties been saying for past decade or two. You guys said the same thing when we had functioning embassies in Afghanistan and now, when we have none. India does not need cross border jihadists who are creating mayhem in J&K. Without this baggage we would be growing at far higher rate of growth.
My views haven't changed, you're free to believe what you wish.

It is not Pakistani politicians that I'm listening to, rather public knowledge. Nothing I've said is even considered controversial in most academic circles, and is widely accepted except in certain Indian circles that believe India has never done any wrong.
 
security: gop killed its own people through drones kidnappings etc.
IWT: pak is already at loss and people being deprived from water, gop is already asleep on this. People are helpless.
Estb: didn't learned anything but didn't faced this much hatred even after 71 bcoz of media. Its People or power, so they cannot change opinions anymore.
Economic meltdown is already happening
Pakistan will not be economically stable for at least 50 years.
It's debts are increasing at 14% per annum, all major assets have been sold off and the population is increasing alarmingly. Pakistan is a time-bomb waiting to explode, and it'll not be one single explosion. It'll be series of disasters which would make Somalia look like paradise. Pakistan is not doing anything to control it's population. The lack of food, water and resources will push millions of Pakistanis towards acute poverty.

Chinese rivers run through Assam, Meghalaya etc. That area(NE India) has much much more water than it would want. Just for reference, the world's rainiest city is located there(Cherapunji). It's covered entirely in tropical forests with lakes, waterfalls and natural dams.

So unlike Pakistan which is a desert nation surviving on a few rivers, NE India won't mind Brahmaputra water being diverted.
Hey Indian, you guys have been waiting for Pakistan’s demise for the last 70 years and nothing has happened. The current situation will pass. Your Modi ji is destroying the fabric of your society is a way that there is no going back. India is a Ponzi scheme based on an illusion and hot hair.
 
No, Pakistan will not collapse
Of course
Hey Indian, you guys have been waiting for Pakistan’s demise for the last 70 years and nothing has happened. The current situation will pass. Your Modi ji is destroying the fabric of your society is a way that there is no going back. India is a Ponzi scheme based on an illusion and hot hair.
Indians are actually worried about Pakistan's collapse. It'll first trigger a refugee crisis on our borders. As much as we would simply like to shoot anyone who tries to come from Pak, there'll be immense international pressure to put these people in refugee camps. We are staring at a possibility of upto 2.5 crore refugees along the border which will put immenze pressure on our government budget.

Iran will also take in a few(Mostly SHIA refugees) and Pathans might want to head west to Afghanistan, but the biggest burden will fall upon us.
 
Last edited:
Of course

Indians are actually worried about Pakistan's collapse. It'll first trigger a refugee crisis on our borders. As much as we would simply like to shoot anyone who tries to come from Pak, there'll be immense international pressure to put these people in refugee camps. We are staring at a possibility of upto 2.5 crore refugees along the border which will put immenze pressure on our government budget.

Iran will also take in a few(Mostly SHIA refugees) and Pathans might want to head west to Afghanistan, but the biggest burden will fall upon us.

#uck off dirty Indian. I am in Lahore right, we still have the same traffic jams, the restaurants are full, the shopping centers are full, there is no shortage of petrol, there is no shortage of food - albeit more expensive, there are no power breakdowns, the civic services are working, public transport is working, PSL is being played with foreign players and the stadium is full, the political battles are being fought in Supreme Court. There is no obvious abject poverty. So to burst your bubble, Pakistan is not collapsing any time soon. You should be more worried about the Ponzi scheme called India. We have already seen a preview with the Andani collapse.

Our worry and a very really one is the 200 million Indian Muslims showing up on our border thanks to RSS/BJP anti Muslims ideology and actions.
 
Last edited:
Interesting, I've been reading about the same in my university this sem below is copy paste of IWT (sort of summary of the whole thing)
Tulbul Navigation Project (Wular Barrage)
It was signed in 1960 by Ayub Khan and Nehru. Most of the rivers were flowing through India and then going to Pakistan. Pak was raising this issue that India can stop such flow. From 1948 to 1960, this issue was raised in international fora since India had comparative advantage over the water.
Conditions of this treaty
1. Rights
the eastern flowing rivers were allotted to India and western flowing to Pakistan. lower riparian states would have exclusive rights over the rivers. right of navigation, irrigation, drink and to use for infrastructure purposes. The upper riparian would have limited rights, they can use the water for navigation, agriculture and drinking purposes but they cannot build large infrastructures which can affect the water flow.
1. Six Rivers
Beas, Rabi, Sutlej: these are eastern flowing means that they flow towards India. All these rivers were allotted to India.
Chenab, Jhelum, Indus: these are western flowing as they flow towards Pakistan.
2. Compensation
since most of the controlling stations remained in India, India was supposed to give 100 crores as part of the compensation to Pakistan. World bank came forward to pay this many to Pakistan and India would need to pay this back to world bank. In that way, the world bank is also a party to this treaty.
3. Information
Both the countries would have to exchange the data regarding any project or construction on this river.
Conflict Resolution: Multi-Tier
1. Bottom Level
Indus commission was formed, this would comprise of various commissioners of both the countries and incase of dispute, they would meet and try to resolve the issues. They even have the task to observe the regular flow of water and data collection, preservation and exchange.
2. Government Level: Three Levels
• First it will go foreign secretaries, they will meet and try to resolve the issue
• If they fail, it would go to foreign ministers
• If they fail, it will go to the summit level where the prime ministers would meet and try to resolve, if they even fail, it would go to next stage
3. Neutral expert
two respective government would inform the world bank about the issue or the aggrieved party can take the issue to the world bank who would appoint a neutral expert. They are generally from the Scandinavian countries. They would go to the site of the dispute and prepare a report, and based upon this report, they can exercise two options:
• Opine this issue as a difference. If the world bank considers it as difference, then neutral expert’s judgment would be final and binding on the parties.
• It can declare it as a dispute, which is more serious. If world bank terms it as a dispute, neutral member’s role ends here and the matter go to the next level
4. International arbitration
It could go to ICJ and the judgment of the court of arbitration would be binding on the parties.

Controversies
1. Tulbul Navigation Project/Wular Barrage
this issue is of 1984. It is at the Wular Lake on Jhelum River which was allotted to Pakistan.
India’s Justifications: it wants to start this project of the purpose of navigation as it wanted to bring the apples from Baramula to Srinagar and as the treaty prescribe that upper riparian country can use it for navigation, the project is justified.
Pakistan’s objection: the river was allotted to Pakistan so India cannot initiate such project.
Due to this project, flow of water would reduce. If the flow of water in Jhelum would reduce, it would affect the generation of electricity in Mangla dam. Jhelum is an important tributary of Indus, so if the water in Jhelum reduces, it would reduce the water in Indus which would affect the agriculture activities in the Sindh region. It would also affect the agriculture activities in Pakistani Punjab.
Negotiations began from 1987 which went for 4 years.
In 1991, India agreed to forgo its right and India withdrew from construction of this project. It was held that it would be taken again in further negotiation. But it has not been raised and therefore it has remained unsolved. India has not constructed this Barrage.

2. Baglihar Hydroelectric Project
This project is on the Chenab River, which was allotted to Pakistan. India started working on this project in 1992 and the capacity of this project is 450 MW. For this, we require a large dam which can generate that much of electricity.
Immediately pak put its objections on that: India has violated the Indus water treaty because it does not allow large scale project which can affect the flow of the water; Since Chenab is an important river of Punjab and if the flow of water in this river would go down, it would affect the agricultural activity in Punjab; Since Chenab is an important tributary of Indus and therefore if Indus’s water go down, it would affect the agriculture; Through this large dam, India could cause floods in Pakistan because if the gates are opened, water would go with high intensity.
The negotiations begun and everything failed. In 2005, this issue went to the international arbitrators at world bank. As a result, it appointed a neutral expert, who visited this site for almost 2 years and made the assessment as to how much water flows in different parts of the year and in 2007 they gave the award and termed it issue as difference. Therefore, it become a final and binding award. The award was in favor of India, it declared that India has not violated the Indus water treaty because as per the Indus water treaty, water can be used for the navigation as well as other purposes. Secondly, it only suggested that height of this dam should be reduced by 1.5 meter and the poundage capacity (the submerged area and the area around the dam) should be reduced by 13%. Baglihar dam had the capacity of 37.5 million acres. So, this capacity was to be reduced by 13%. Rest the award provided that India should go ahead with the project.
How it was possible to win this battle despite the Tulbul loss?
Sediment management: India learnt the lessons from the earlier instances and with the advanced technology they controlled the life of the dam. If sediments start accumulating sediments in the dam, it reduces the life of the dam. When there is a proper sediment management, it ensures the steady flow of water. India provided a good management of this. Optimal level of water is continuously flowing: arbitrators.

3. Kishanganga Dam
it started in river Jhelum allotted to Pakistan. When the baglihar award was given, India started constructing this project, i.e. in 2007. This was of 330 MW. Kishanganga is a tributary of Jhelum, when Kishanganga enter Pakistan, it is called neelum river. On neelum, pak was also constructing a dam. All the above objections were raised in Kishanganga project as well.
In 2010, after negations, the matter went to world bank and the neutral experts termed it as dispute. It went to Hague’s permanent court of arbitration. In 2011, experts of the court went to sites of both the rivers, and they instructed India that India should stop the construction of this project. So, India halted the construction in 2011. From 2011 to 2013 no work took place. During this period, the experts were continuously observing the circumstances.
In feb 2013, they gave the partial award. It says that India has not violated the treaty and therefore it can go ahead with the construction of the dam. The final award came in December 2013. It completely annulled all the objections of the Pakistan and it only instructed that India should maintain a flow of water of 9 meter cubic per second and this was much much lower than what they were asking. Pakistan was asking for 100 meter cubic per second. From 2013 to 2017, the construction continued.
The reason of victory was same as the experts has seen the sediment management and it had not interfered with the flow of water. This was made possible due to the technology that India received from Japan and other countries. Experts even found that such dam is not affecting the neelum project.
In this award, there is a condition that any of the party can approach the court of arbitration again only after 7 years for the review of the award.

Now India is going for large scale projects on all the western flowing rivers. 6 to 7 dams are being constructed. Pak cannot do so as the water content in those rivers is less and therefore it would not be in favor of pak to start the construction of dams.
Ramaswani Aiyer’s research was very instrumental because he briefed the advocates who argued in hague and supplied the government with his effective research.
 

Pakistan Affairs Latest Posts

Back
Top Bottom