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Pakistan, I’m watching, with dread in my heart. Are my fingers crossed?

pak-marine

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Pakistan, I’m watching, with dread in my heart. Are my fingers crossed?


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Public throng the markets and bazaars for shopping in Karachi ignoring the government's instructions to prevent COVID-19 spread after the lockdown was eased. Image Credit: APP
Highlights
  • How many Pakistanis will work with the government?
  • How many safety SOPs will be followed?
  • I’m afraid of even thinking of what I know would unfold very soon.
  • I hope, I pray, I’m wrong.



The world is skewed today. Exhausted. In a year, eighteen months, two years, once the familiar patterns of existence reclaim their position, redefined, rewritten, reshaped, there will be many stories of those few months when the world, as we knew it, wheezed to a halt. A virus gave birth to a disease, and almost every country of the world was forced to bend to the will of the infection that spread so fast it left leaders and doctors and politicians and scientists befuddled.

The novel coronavirus and its resultant COVID-19 are the global terms that unify and polarise humanity in the same measure. Much has changed. Yet not much has changed. Human beings are so conditioned to reacting, acting, self-promising, and publicly proclaiming to change, and reverting to the old that no disease would ever be able to affect a few fundamentals. Fifth month of the year, no vaccine in sight for many more months, and on May 14, there are 4,317,061 confirmed cases globally, according to John Hopkins Coronavirus Resources Centre, and 1,523,278 recovered patients, and 294,997deaths.


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In the article I wrote for Gulf News exactly a week ago, the number of confirmed cases was 3,709,800, recovered patients were 1,225,364, and deaths were 259,695. In seven days, the addition to the number of confirmed cases is 607,261. In seven days, the addition to the number of dead is 35,302. How many of those 544,502 patients will recover and how many won’t make it…time and timely treatment will be the arbiter of that.

In the meantime, almost every country of the world that has been under lockdown in one form or the other, has decided to go into the easing-the-lockdown mode. There seems to be no other alternative. Public health officials in almost every country remain highly opposed to the idea of easing the lockdowns. Scientists, epidemiologists, virologists support the stance of doctors who are the frontline fighters against COVID-19. Governments, of developed, semi-developed and developing countries, all seem to have been pushed into a corner: to open on not open? The choice is hard as hell, but it has been made, mostly. Lockdowns have been or will be eased across the globe.

Images of multitudes of people in shopping areas, all across Pakistan, after the government-announced, phased, easing of lockdown on May 9, are the disturbing display of how human beings have the uncontrollable urge to revert to the familiar even when it comes with a bold-hued caption: beware of being a peril to the safety of your life and those of others.

Mosques were already open for congregational and Ramzan prayers. Then almost everything else opened. In all provinces of Pakistan, in all types of shops, mostly mask-less and glove-less customers and salespersons were seen in such close proximity it gave the impression COVID-19 was the name of an imaginary disease and all was well with the world.

On the 20th of Ramzan, I’m thinking about the number of people in almost every shopping area, high-end, retail and wholesale, of Pakistan. The flimsy green mask, available for a few rupees in every pharmacy, and sold by street hawkers, appears to the sole armour against a disease that I fear does not terrify people the way it should. Most Pakistanis have the belief that COVID-19 is treatable – which it is, and which it is not. Clearly, the number of 35,384 confirmed cases is not scary to the Pakistan of almost 220 million people. The number of 761 dead is miniscule. I find this complacency terrifying.

The fear of losing livelihood is so real it is not less than the fear of losing life. Shops and offices and businesses have to be opened for millions of people to make a living to pay for food, utilities, medical treatment, and other essential expenses for themselves and their families. And millions of people will flock to their shops and offices and businesses to buy essential and non-essential things for themselves and their families. Only a curfew can keep people in their houses. Only a jail cell is an impediment to free movement. Only a stringent lockdown, overseen by law enforcement agencies, backed up by fines, keeps people from thronging places that do not cater to their need for the essentials. All non-applicable.

Follow guidelines
I fear a rise in confirmed cases. Human beings can’t help being human beings. The craving to return to their old ways of living is so strong, an invisible virus, despite its deadliness of spread and infection, do not scare the way it should. I fear the already overburdened healthcare system of Pakistan would be pushed to the point of teetering and collapsing.

Prime Minister Imran Khan spoke to the nation on May 8: “The disease could get out of control if you don't take precautions. I’m saying this to all of you: you’d have to take responsibility. If the nation wishes to get out of this difficult time, government can’t make that happen with the force of danda (baton). All of you must work with the government. Safety SOPs must be followed.”

The rules for the health authorities to stop the transmission of the coronavirus from one human to another are simple yet extremely difficult to fully implement in a country of a huge population, a gaunt healthcare system, and excruciatingly limited financial and other resources: find; isolate; test, treat; contact tracing; quarantine. And engage the population to make them aware of the SOPs that would be their protection and of others.

How many Pakistanis will work with the government? How many safety SOPs will be followed? I’m afraid of even thinking of what I know would unfold very soon. I hope, I pray, I’m wrong.

The reality of not easing lockdowns is also frightening. The World Food Programme stated on April 21: “821 million people go to bed hungry every night all over the world, chronically hungry. …the new Global Report on Food Crisis published today shows, there are a further 135 million people facing crisis levels of hunger or worse. That means 135 million people on earth are marching towards the brink of starvation… more people could potentially die from the economic impact of COVID-19 than from the virus itself.”

That is Prime Minister Khan’s constant fear: people dying of hunger during a full lockdown. It is not a matter of lives versus livelihoods. It is a simple equation of lives versus lives. That is what anti-Khan forces in Pakistan need to understand instead of turning the sanctity of life into passionate speeches and hyperbolic slogans. To Prime Minister Khan, it is the life of every Pakistani, the forgotten, the invisible common man, that is invaluable. It is not economic stability that is the goal of Khan’s government in the time of the coronavirus. It is the life and wellbeing of the poor that is the fundamental concern of Prime Minister Imran Khan before and during the time of the coronavirus.

Pakistan will only be able to have safety of life amidst the growing number of COVID-19 cases if people follow the guidelines issued by government and health authorities. Much has been said about safety guidelines in Pakistan and the rest of the world. Now Pakistan needs a national reinforced awareness campaign.


Humans of Pakistan must follow certain guidelines to keep themselves and others safe: proper and frequent washing of hands; keeping hands sanitised; making use of masks as essential as wearing clothes; minimum number of people in any enclosed space at any given time; a minimum distance of six feet from others; no mass gathering; avoid crowded places; maintain social distancing keeping in mind that the safety of your life is, literally, connected to you staying away from one another physically.

It is all easier said than done. Will Pakistanis listen to their prime minister? To WHO? To local health authorities? To media warnings? To the rational ones around them?

I’m watching, with dread in my heart. Are my fingers crossed?

I’m afraid to check.
 
Pakistan needs heard immunity and cocooning of those who are immunocompromised and have multiple co morbidities. Social distancing and lock down will not work for countries like Pakistan.
Unfortunately, it will be a culling rather than cocooning of those who are immunocompromised and have multiple co morbidities.
 
Everything will be okay unless the hospitals /field hospitals overflow.
 
There has been many cases, I know personally 3 people, who got the virus (high fever, coughing). But they stayed home, and recovered. They didn't go to the hospital to get tested afterwards either. So its possible there are thousands or even millions of similar cases.
 
Britain enforced lockdown which is still ongoing.
Sweden didn't bother.
Here are the statistics.
Lockdown isn't the magic bullet.

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Pakistan needs heard immunity and cocooning of those who are immunocompromised and have multiple co morbidities. Social distancing and lock down will not work for countries like Pakistan.
How will you achieve heard immunity.
 
There has been many cases, I know personally 3 people, who got the virus (high fever, coughing). But they stayed home, and recovered. They didn't go to the hospital to get tested afterwards either. So its possible there are thousands or even millions of similar cases.
That's a the case in every country. My cousin, his wife and two kids were all displaying symptoms they live in New Jersey. They went to a hospital to get tested but they sent them home without testing and just said to self isolate, and they all recovered Alhumdulilah. So even though they were corona positive they never showed up in the statistics.
 
let them acheive herd immunity!

With herd immunity you make covid-19 endemic. That means everyone who is vulnerable (Immunologically compromised, heart failure patients, all kinds of pulmonary disease patients etc etc etc ) WILL DIE.
Herd immunity implies we all become carriers at some point or maybe for several extensive periods.
Death rate will slow down after a long period but death will be inevitable for the above.
And a large population carrying covid-19 virus endemically will result in a multiplicity of mutations of the virus
There is a reason why NO NATION has made herd immunity a chosen course of action except it appears Pakistan which has abandoned isolation BEFORE the peak has been reached.
IK has basically said to the Pakistani Awam , its your fault you did not listen, when in fact except for Sindh no federal or provincial government has made a serious attempt at acceptable and convincing procedures for isolation of the vulnerable
 
With No lockdowns.

IK is not a low IQ idiot like Modi. He is well educated.
Let ik make a decision and stick to it without making a u turn ,then we can talk about him being a idiot or not.

People don't know what is herd immunity and commenting about it just because the read some thing about it.

Britain enforced lockdown which is still ongoing.
Sweden didn't bother.
Here are the statistics.
Lockdown isn't the magic bullet.

View attachment 633846
Wrong info
 
It's a ridiculous situation that I expect to backfire horribly. I hope and pray I'm wrong.

There has to be some common sense. Pakistan is devoid of sense most of the time. It certainly isn't common. People queuing outside shopping malls. Nobody needs new Eid clothes. Many other stupids examples (political and religious jalsas).

We don't need total lockdown but we do need to take precautions. Agriculture for example should have continued - farmers are isolated in fields. The same is true for construction and other outdoor work.

Let's shops and banks etc open, but have people queue with distance in between them.
 
i think it was wrong decision to open lockdown before eid as people mostly visiting for eid shopping ,if govt ended lockdown after eid it would be better approach but then those businessmen in govt would be unable to earn money from eid sales so I think all this decision was more due to self interest of certain businessmen and traders in govt
 

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