Will Vietnam’s FDI-led economy get stuck in a middle income trap?

[Yizhi]

have you ever seen these graphs: Pisa test Math 2013 and the overall ranking? the result is similar to other fields. we are better most of other peers in SE Asia, not to mention Western Europe. If knowledge is the future, then I am more optismistic than you.

yes, i've seen these results. it's very interesting for east asians to top the list...
my point is that the capability of VCP is the key factor. since i don't know much about VCP, i'm still sitting on fence.
there is nothing wrong for a Vietnamese to be optimistic about your country's future. we chinese should all go and commit suicide if we only listen to those doom and gloom story about 'china collapse'.....

 

[Echo_419]

i'm actually thinking about Bangladesh when i wrote 'south asia'.
beating you guys at HDI is the legacy of 'good communist era', it's a nice basis to start with, but doesn't promise anything....i.e. north korea...

BD & India have same numbers on HDI(We are just a little but ahead of them) and these indicators really don't mean much what matters is how much a nation spends on R&D,infra development etc you get these right & HDI will automatically improve

 

[AgentOrange]

problem of china is the corruption is very seriously developed, existed in highest ranking politician of CPC. This both person here is arrested. You can read their name on pic.

That's true. Corruption can flourish more easily in authoritarian governments like that of China and Vietnam. Difference is that under Xi Jinping, the two crooks pictured above were actually arrested. Tigers and flies remember? In Vietnam, even the flies aren't touched.

Vietnam's corruption fight fails: officials | Politics | Thanh Nien Daily

 

[Viet]

yes, i've seen these results. it's very interesting for east asians to top the list...
my point is that the capability of VCP is the key factor. since i don't know much about VCP, i'm still sitting on fence.
there is nothing wrong for a Vietnamese to be optimistic about your country's future. we chinese should all go and commit suicide if we only listen to those doom and gloom story about 'china collapse'.....

well, I agree to you on this part. exactly, if the government makes bullshit, the population suffers. this fact is true on over the world.

 

[AgentOrange]

I´m saddened.


have you ever seen these graphs: Pisa test Math 2013 and the overall ranking? the result is similar to other fields. we are better than most of other peers in SE Asia, not to mention Western Europe. we are direct behind China, before Singapore, in terms of resilient students. If knowledge is the future, then I am more optismistic on Vietnam´s future than you.

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View attachment 183371

Those PISA scores are certainly encouraging. Asians do value education very highly, Vietnam included.

 

[Viet]

That's true. Corruption can flourish more easily in authoritarian governments like that of China and Vietnam. Difference is that under Xi Jinping, the two crooks pictured above were actually arrested. Tigers and flies remember? In Vietnam, even the flies aren't touched.

Vietnam's corruption fight fails: officials | Politics | Thanh Nien Daily

there are encouraging signs lately, VN government is committed to stop corruption. I´m a bit optimistic. corruption is a cancer for a country, especially for VN. No doubt, China performs much better in economy.

 

[AgentOrange]

there are encouraging signs lately, VN government is committed to stop corruption. I´m a bit optimistic. corruption is a cancer for a country, especially for VN. No doubt, China performs much better in economy.

It's hard to correct corruption in authoritarian countries as I said. China is trying to get ordinary people involved in rooting out corruption and there's even a phone app for this. Hopefully Vietnam is more successful as well because corruption stifles growth, creativity, etc. And if Vietnam's kids have a bright outlook as their PISA scores indicate, it would be a shame to deny them every opportunity available.

The problem for both China and Vietnam is how much criticism they're willing to tolerate as citizens become more involved. To both the CCP and VCP, it's a double edged sword but if they don't make any headway in addressing corruption, economic growth will ultimately suffer in which case they will be in deep trouble anyways. Definitely an uphill struggle but IMO, both the Chinese and Vietnamese governments must learn to trust their citizens more.

 

[Viet]

It's hard to correct corruption in authoritarian countries as I said. China is trying to get ordinary people involved in rooting out corruption and there's even a phone app for this. Hopefully Vietnam is more successful as well because corruption stifles growth, creativity, etc. And if Vietnam's kids have a bright outlook as their PISA scores indicate, it would be a shame to deny them every opportunity available.

The problem for both China and Vietnam is how much criticism they're willing to tolerate as citizens become more involved. To both the CCP and VCP, it's a double edged sword but if they don't make any headway in addressing corruption, economic growth will ultimately suffer in which case they will be in deep trouble anyways. Definitely an uphill struggle but IMO, both the Chinese and Vietnamese governments must learn to trust their citizens more.

poverty is one of the most reasons why a country suffers under corruption. if one is poor, he/she tends to accept bribe money than being a rich man. history shows, with increasingly prosperity, the grade of corruption descreases.

the article you post is from a vietnam state media. you see even VCP no longer hides corruption and admits it is a long fight. First thing is to recognise the problem, second to look for solution. as I say previously, I´m a bit optimistic. yes, it is an uphill battle. Vietnam tends to copy from China, VCP to copy from CCP. So if their counterparts do anything good, their viet comrades will follow. sooner or later.

 

[IPen]

problem of china is the corruption is very seriously developed, existed in highest ranking politician of CPC. This both person here is arrested. You can read their name on pic.

"As for corruption, your cops ask for bribes openly which is far beyond the imagination of our people on how far corruption can go..."

Dude,if you don't have some good points to respond, better choice is silence...

 

[Aepsilons]

i wouldn't be too pessimistic of Vietnam's future trajectory. the problems they now encounter are similar to those we chinese had in the 90s and early 2000s.
for a state-led economic system to avoid the 'middle income trap', it's crucial for the state to do the necessary reforms in time, thus the pressure is now on VCP.
though Vietnam's 'successful growth story' looks pale when compared with china's, it's still relatively much better than other countries in south asia or africa....especially when you look at health and literacy figures. so again, vietnam has the potential, but whether or not it will fulfill this potential is an open question and it's deeply intertwined with VCP's capability.....

She has a very bright future, if we remove unnecessary militaristic talk. Contrary to what some say here, the relations between Vietnam and China and the wider region continues to grow.

 

[Yizhi]

BD & India have same numbers on HDI(We are just a little but ahead of them) and these indicators really don't mean much what matters is how much a nation spends on R&D,infra development etc you get these right & HDI will automatically improve

agreed. R&D and infrastructure are also very important for future productivity gain.
but i still won't dismiss the importance of HDI so quickly. improvement of HDI will come naturally as countries get richer but it's a slow gradual process and its the basis of your ppl's productivity. we are now all competing fiercely with each other for a bigger share in the global supply chain, having a high HDI score means your general ppl has higher productivity, thus being more competitive.
India is a very special case for me because the top 100 million Indians are actually very competitive globally. Indian elites are definitely among the very best. it's an interesting development model to watch.....

 

[Echo_419]

agreed. R&D and infrastructure are also very important for future productivity gain.
but i still won't dismiss the importance of HDI so quickly. improvement of HDI will come naturally as countries get richer but it's a slow gradual process and its the basis of your ppl's productivity. we are now all competing fiercely with each other for a bigger share in the global supply chain, having a high HDI score means your general ppl has higher productivity, thus being more competitive.
India is a very special case for me because the top 100 million Indians are actually very competitive globally. Indian elites are definitely among the very best. it's an interesting development model to watch.....

What i am trying to say is you must get the Basics right & then other things like HDI will automatically improve

 

[Yizhi]

She has a very bright future, if we remove unnecessary militaristic talk. Contrary to what some say here, the relations between Vietnam and China and the wider region continues to grow.

well, Vietnam is considered to be the 'little China' for very good reason. i'm always shocked by the similarity of governmental structure and the problems we face. the ties between us two are actually quite strong....

 

[Aepsilons]

well, Vietnam is considered to be the 'little China' for very good reason. i'm always shocked by the similarity of governmental structure and the problems we face. the ties between us two are actually quite strong....

Precisely so. Aside from some minor ideological differences and some nationalistic elements, both Vietnam and China are very much natural partners.

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

Precisely so. Aside from some minor ideological differences and some nationalistic elements, both Vietnam and China are very much natural partners.

Vietnam is basically little China. From government, to culture, to economic policy. Particularly in the field of Economic Vietnam is actually emulating China in the 80s, but only time will tell whether or not it will follow through like China.

To me Vietnam's weakness lies in its state run company.