India serves 90 day notice to Pakistan on Indus Water Treaty!

[VCheng]

I don't know the technical aspects but I think perhaps the 'run of the river' dams to generate powers upstream wouldn't endanger Pakistan's water supplies in quantity.

Try reading the actual IWT and not the many claims that are thrown about with abandon by those who would obfuscate the issue intentionally.

But what I do know is that the moment Pakistanis, who are in 220 million in numbers, sense that water supplies to Pakistan would be restricted by India--if India would be foolish and cruel enough to do such an act--then that moment would be a catastrophe for the Subcontinent.

The people are fed lies from those who would want to divert attention from their own failures, similar to the IMF being a villain instead of a rescuer.

Lack of understanding of law, poor choice of legal team and most importantly - poor and mostly delayed or illtimed lawsuits.

And the fact that India has not violated IWT treaty provisions.

Details matter.

Yes, they do. A lot.

 

[Krptonite]

I didn’t blame India for duplicity.

I just mentioned if Pakistan does not like India’s request, it should respectfully decline.

At the moment Pakistan is having trouble with institutional harmony and hopefully we achieve equilibrium to develop.

The GoP of course has the prerogative to decline, but theres scope for a good fight within diplomatic maneuvers. Bout time our representatives at the UN had something new to say against each other.

No matter what disharmony you guys face, we'll unite you.

 

[jaibi]

What is there to talk about? Pakistan will simply say no.

No longer the option, Pakistan doesn't have the international leverage to put pressure on India.
Most likely what India is looking for is for Pakistan to accept Indian occupied Kashmir as an internal part of India and in return they will respect the original water division as per the treaty.
If you look up the Indus water treaty it predicates Kashmir being a disputed territory legally and that premise builds up towards the terms of the treaty. Now India is looking to revoke that term.
If you look at the original dispute then Indian government outplayed Pakistan back then too, the same dynamics that happened in Kashmir happened in Hyderabad as well and we gave up on that claim focusing on Kashmir. India, like China, has an economy that looks for long term moves.
Why is India doing this? I think contrary to popular opinion India desires much more independence in the upcoming century, it does not want to be heavily reliant on the US as opposition to China, if you read the Ukraine-Russian conflict from their think tanks they're quite critical of the US and NATO strategy to support Ukraine (basically debt for defence). Doing this would ensure that they can negotiate with China and keep a tap on how much does the rest of the world i.e. west gets to play into the point of conflict.
Most likely this agreement will be kept under the wraps as this clause will be agreed to, if it happens, for, like I said, India can afford to play in the long run.
As far as the situation for us is concerned then we've actually run of out of time and moves. Our economy is in shambles.
This move helps all major parties, as long as China's investment is secure in Pakistan it would not come in conflict with India. That they can give as long as their interests are catered for. India is building a case to spring board for the tech incorporated world as an investment haven and the only thing that stops them is the danger of being involved in a military conflict with Pakistan or China. Getting the legal requirement from Pakistan allows India to put the legality for any action into Kashmir solely on Pakistan or China thus negating any international legal reprecussion such as sanctions. (This is a much more complicated point but I think the post is already quite long)

 

[truthseeker2010]

No longer the option, Pakistan doesn't have the international leverage to put pressure on India.
Most likely what India is looking for is for Pakistan to accept Indian occupied Kashmir as an internal part of India and in return they will respect the original water division as per the treaty.
If you look up the Indus water treaty it predicates Kashmir being a disputed territory legally and that premise builds up towards the terms of the treaty. Now India is looking to revoke that term.
If you look at the original dispute then Indian government outplayed Pakistan back then too, the same dynamics that happened in Kashmir happened in Hyderabad as well and we gave up on that claim focusing on Kashmir. India, like China, has an economy that looks for long term moves.
Why is India doing this? I think contrary to popular opinion India desires much more independence in the upcoming century, it does not want to be heavily reliant on the US as opposition to China, if you read the Ukraine-Russian conflict from their think tanks they're quite critical of the US and NATO strategy to support Ukraine (basically debt for defence). Doing this would ensure that they can negotiate with China and keep a tap on how much does the rest of the world i.e. west gets to play into the point of conflict.
Most likely this agreement will be kept under the wraps as this clause will be agreed to, if it happens, for, like I said, India can afford to play in the long run.
As far as the situation for us is concerned then we've actually run of out of time and moves. Our economy is in shambles.
This move helps all major parties, as long as China's investment is secure in Pakistan it would not come in conflict with India. That they can give as long as their interests are catered for. India is building a case to spring board for the tech incorporated world as an investment haven and the only thing that stops them is the danger of being involved in a military conflict with Pakistan or China. Getting the legal requirement from Pakistan allows India to put the legality for any action into Kashmir solely on Pakistan or China thus negating any international legal reprecussion such as sanctions. (This is a much more complicated point but I think the post is already quite long)

As things stand, 27 Feb would go down as last stand of pak on Kashmir.

 

[jaibi]

As things stand, 27 Feb would go down as last stand of pak on Kashmir.

Indeed, brother. However, it's important to keep ourselves well versed with realty. Our failures have been building up for a long time, unfortunately the discourse I see going around leaves little room for hope. We are in this situation because of institutional lapses rather than individual ones. Ever since the the atomic age it's been quite clear that conflict has moved away from military to economic arenas. China learnt that, India learnt that. I had written an article here on PDF a long time ago (2012-15, I think) about how the Indian strategy is a replica of the Reagan policy against the USSR. Basically pitch the cost of maintaining defence capilities so aggressively high that it kills the enemies economy. That is what the US did to the USSR.
We seem to be in the middle of such a scenario.

 

[VCheng]

Indeed, brother. However, it's important to keep ourselves well versed with realty. Our failures have been building up for a long time, unfortunately the discourse I see going around leaves little room for hope. We are in this situation because of institutional lapses rather than individual ones. Ever since the the atomic age it's been quite clear that conflict has moved away from military to economic arenas. China learnt that, India learnt that. I had written an article here on PDF a long time ago (2012-15, I think) about how the Indian strategy is a replica of the Reagan policy against the USSR. Basically pitch the cost of maintaining defence capilities so aggressively high that it kills the enemies economy. That is what the US did to the USSR.
We seem to be in the middle of such a scenario.

It is time to seriously consider converting the LoC into a recognized international border and call it a day.

 

[jaibi]

It is time to seriously consider converting the LoC into a recognized international border and call it a day.

I think, sir, that being a choice is going away from us. It'd happen one way or another for the next phase of global economics structure.

 

[VCheng]

I think, sir, that being a choice is going away from us. It'd happen one way or another for the next phase of global economics structure.

It may not be a bad thing overall. The only question here is whether we will be able to realize a peace dividend and grow out of the security straitjacket we have intentionally placed ourselves in over decades.

 

[Thevilone]

It is time to seriously consider converting the LoC into a recognized international border and call it a day.

Indian people will never accept Azad Kashmir and GB as part of Pakistan. So the point is moot.
I think the best that can happen is India promising unrestricted and free travel/transport between Pak and China via CPEC routes.
If any Indian govt. were ro compromise on Azad Kashmir and GB the govt. would collapse the next day.

 

[-=virus=-]

@jaibi saab

might be humming the kum ba yah here but still holding out hope for some sort of lasting peace between us, codified in a treaty

the modalities of this dream are much beyond me, I'm afraid

but there still exists a sliver of hope within our collective beating hearts

anywho.. dekho, dua karo .. who knows

 

[Meengla]

It is time to seriously consider converting the LoC into a recognized international border and call it a day.

Both countries came close during the Musharraf-Manmohan dialogues. I have repeatedly said in this forum that both countries need to go back to that dialogue. While there maybe new realizations of that in Pakistan--even in PDF-- I had concluded an honorable peace guaranteeing civil liberties of Kashmiris, including of Hindu Pandits, and Pakistan's water rights will bring the peace dividends which would truly make the LoC 'irrelevant'.

 

[VCheng]

Both countries came close during the Musharraf-Manmohan dialogues. I have repeatedly said in this forum that both countries need to go back to that dialogue. While there maybe new realizations of that in Pakistan--even in PDF-- I had concluded an honorable peace guaranteeing civil liberties of Kashmiris, including of Hindu Pandits, and Pakistan's water rights will bring the peace dividends which would truly make the LoC 'irrelevant'.

We can but hope.

 

[Dalit]

The Indus Water Treaty, just like the partition of Punjab, was very unfair to the Sikhs. Just like the Sikhs were denied their historical cities of Lahore, Gujranwala and Multan, they were also denied their fair share of the river waters. It is good that the Modi government is taking steps to correct this historical injustice.

You are lucky. The Pakistani army agrees with you wholeheartedly.

 

[truthseeker2010]

Indeed, brother. However, it's important to keep ourselves well versed with realty. Our failures have been building up for a long time, unfortunately the discourse I see going around leaves little room for hope. We are in this situation because of institutional lapses rather than individual ones. Ever since the the atomic age it's been quite clear that conflict has moved away from military to economic arenas. China learnt that, India learnt that. I had written an article here on PDF a long time ago (2012-15, I think) about how the Indian strategy is a replica of the Reagan policy against the USSR. Basically pitch the cost of maintaining defence capilities so aggressively high that it kills the enemies economy. That is what the US did to the USSR.
We seem to be in the middle of such a scenario.

Pak withdrawing from IWT.
India withdrawing army from Kashmir or atleast drawing down considerably.
Pak cutting down military due to economy.

These are visible dots.

Things going forward will be:
Peace deal with afg or just fighting for attrition.
Just enough money for bare survival. The debt will be restructured on God know what, but definitely submission to West and no mercy from China either.
Who knows regarding nukes.....

 

[Dalit]

Pak withdrawing from IWT.
India withdrawing army from Kashmir or atleast drawing down considerably.
Pak cutting down military due to economy.

These are visible dots.

Things going forward will be:
Peace deal with afg or just fighting for attrition.
Just enough money for bare survival. The debt will be restructured on God know what, but definitely submission to West and no mercy from China either.
Who knows regarding nukes.....

The tone in this topic says it all. You know that Pakistan is finished.

These military men would do anything including accepting the LoC. What they will never accept is loss of power and perks. Power and perks trumps just about everything including Kashmir.

Both countries came close during the Musharraf-Manmohan dialogues. I have repeatedly said in this forum that both countries need to go back to that dialogue. While there maybe new realizations of that in Pakistan--even in PDF-- I had concluded an honorable peace guaranteeing civil liberties of Kashmiris, including of Hindu Pandits, and Pakistan's water rights will bring the peace dividends which would truly make the LoC 'irrelevant'.

That is not for Pakistan to decide. India is acting from a position of strength. India will decide whether it will give Pakistan a drop of water. Pakistani generals have already given up on Kashmir so that chapter is closed. Pakistan has absolutely nothing to stand on. Pakistan will cave in when it comes to the Indus water treaty. The Americans will make sure of that.