India’s precarious position in Kashmir

[khansaheeb]

Finally, a new cabinet of Pro-Pakistan Taliban members have been installed in Kabul. Looking at the news, TV reports and posts on forums Indian Politicians and intelligence community are certainly panicking and there is somber mood all around. The Indians certainly do have a reason to be somber, the Haqqanis believe in global jihad and hold key positions in Kabul and have clearly expressed their distaste for the Indians.

The US have left the Haqqani Taliban well-armed, whether it was by plan or by accident we have yet to see. The newly militarized and empowered Taliban have now more options to play with and are able to turn in any direction they want. This has clearly panicked India which feels vulnerable and weak. The formidable Pakistan -Taliban-China partnership will no doubt allow a free hand to destabalise and free Kashmir via a re-ignited and well stoked Kashmir insurgency. Pakistan is seeking to revenge the Indian sponsored terrorism in Baluchistan, China is set to reacquire the Indian occupied Chinese territories and the Afghans want revenge on the Indian support of ANA and the consequent crimes committed by them. There is no love lost between China/Pakistan and India and the new war has begun albeit in the background. India has fired the first salvoes by sending into Baluchistan well trained terrorists who have attacked the Pakistan frontier forces.

India's cheap attack on Pakistan through terrorists shows it has a largely weak and ineffective army which was also seen by the poor performance of the Indian trained ANA, the outcome against the Chinese in Ladakh and the devastating Indian loss against Pakistan in the air battle on 26th February 2019. India's present economic decline and it's huge poor morale army has exposed and made it vulnerable. India is set for a repeat of the 1962 humiliating defeat and this could occur within a decade.

A combined insurgency within Kashmir and India and a two-front attack by China and Pakistan could lead to a decisive defeat of the Indians and be as calatamous and speedy as the collapse of Kabul. Occupying Indian soldiers are deeply resented by the native Kashmiris are attacked daily and it is only a matter of time before Indian Muslims join the insurgency. This would exasperate the civil disorder within India and break the unity of the federation. The cycle of Nazi BJP indoctrination, the increasing Indian Military operations and the resulting oppression of the Kashmiris would lead Kashmir to a tipping point. This would force Pakistan act to expedite the Kashmiri independence from Indian occupation.

The Indians will try to put Pakistan on the defensive and after a brief spike the Baluchistan insurgency in Pakistan will subside and Pakistan would be able to focus beyond the borders. Battled hardened and well trained Indian Mujahadeen will return from Afghanistan and flood Kashmir to ignite a Jihad against draconian Indian rule. Taliban will open up their training grounds for Kashmiri freedom fighters and the US supplied arms will flow to the Kashmir battlefield. Modi will react in a predictable way and send more troops in and authorise more atrocities in Kashmir. This will further attract jihadists from across the region creating a refugee crisis in New Delhi and the surrounding region. To preempt this India will try to divide the Taliban against Pakistan and try and buy some of the Taliban members and increase terrorism activities in Pakistan but it will be to no avail.

China will see it’s opportunity and mass the troops on the Indian border threatening an all-out Tibet like invasion. India will have no choice but to divert more forces to battle China across the entire India-China border and it will slowly and surely lose it’s grip on Kashmir. Bangladesh may make opportunistic grabs on disputed territory forcing more Indian forces to the border. Overstretched the Indian army would be unable to fight effectively on 3 fronts and one or more fronts will likely fall or internally would spiral into free for all civil war. Other scenario being as Bangladesh at present is not militarily strong enough to confront India, Pakistan-India border is too heavily fortified so most likely India would lose swathes of Indian territory on the Chinese border.

Due to India’s recreant behaviour in Afghanistan India can forget the blanket unrestricted military support from the West. it’s deceitful return on Western investments and it’s duplicitous economic partnerships, it’s BJP doctrine based on the Nazis has undermined support for India all around. India will receive little favours and would have to make choice between repealing Article 370 , allowing a referendum in Kashmir and having some political stake or losing Kashmir altogether. India’s is certainly in a precarious position and it’s Pakistan’s call as to where this leads to.

 

[FuturePAF]

Modi’s rule in Kashmir just got another set back. The last democratically elected leader; Mehbooba Mufti (which is how the world will see her) of IIOJK called out Hindutuva as Hijacking Hinduism.

She Compares BJP/RSS to ISIS

 

[MultaniGuy]

Some intellectuals say the Chenab Formula is the best compromise. India gets land south of the Chenab River, while Pakistan gets everything else.

India saves face while getting most of Jammu.
‘Pakistan missed many opportunities to address Kashmir issue’
Ikram JunaidiPublished September 3, 2019

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ISLAMABAD: China had suggested during the China-India war in 1962 that Pakistan take over Kashmir as there were no Indian soldiers present there at the time, the editor of Declassified: British Secret Documents, Diplomatic Communications Relating to Pakistan revealed at the launch of his book on Monday.
“We could have taken the whole [of] Kashmir even if we would have sent boy scouts. However, overnight the Chinese letter reached from Pakistan to Washington and US President John F. Kennedy directed Gen Ayub Khan not to do so,” Barrister Nasim Ahmad Bajwa said, while speaking about various opportunities to resolve the Kashmir issue since 1947.
Mr Bajwa was speaking at the launch of his book, organised by the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI).
The book provides an alternate version of history through years of conversations and observations made by British diplomats in correspondence back home and to their missions in other countries. It is a worthwhile collection for academics and researchers looking for an overview of past events from the archives of British secret documents.

Mr Bajwa said initially, United Nations representative Sir Owen Dixon visited the region and proposed a formula to divide Kashmir into four parts, which was rejected by the FO.

Book on British secret documents, communications related to Pakistan launched

“Later, in 1960, Sir Dexon gave the Chenab formula, which suggested that Kashmir should be divided along the line of the River Chenab. This would give the vast majority of land to Pakistan, but our FO said we will drown the formula into Chenab River,” he added.
“Decision makers make blunders, but unfortunately common and poor people suffer because of it,” he said.
Mr Bajwa said the book was also a tribute to British ambassador Sir Oliver Foster, who served in Pakistan from 1979 to 1984, and used to worry for Pakistan’s people.
“He told me many things which even I cannot share, because I am not Tipu Sultan and cannot face the brunt. However, I can say that conspiracies were started against Pakistan since 1947 but our decision makers and even journalists are not interested in addressing the issues of Pakistan. Decision makers are not only incompetent but also corrupt,” he said.
Speaking about the lack of interest in research, Mr Bajwa said that when he visited the British government’s archive department for material for the book, a representative told him no one had approached them between 1947 and 2018 for material for research on Pakistan.
He added that his new book on the Indus Basin would be launched at the end of this year.
Former federal secretary Muzaffar Mehmood Qureshi said the book was informative and depicted Pakistan’s political situation.
“It also shows that there was difference of opinion between Begum Nusrat Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto over certain issues. It also reveals that Pakistan is a country which is not sure of its issues,” he said.
Dr Mohammad Riaz Shad, associate professor at the National University of Modern Languages’ Department of International Relations, said he had reviewed the book from an academic perspective and found it different from most.
“It comprises information regarding communications of the UK embassy and the authenticity of the information is more credible.
“The book covers issues ranging from domestic, regional to global nature. It is useful for students as well as academia, and provides reliable sources of information for further research,” he said.
SDPI Director Advocacy and Outreach Moazzam Sharif Bhatti also said the book would be beneficial for history and politics students, and suggested translating the text to Urdu.
Published in Dawn, September 3rd, 2019

‘Pakistan missed many opportunities to address Kashmir issue’

Book on British secret documents, communications related to Pakistan launched

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