OK people.
Now in the last adress to airmen by the last Air chief he said PAF wants a fleet of 350 to 375 aircrafts. Assuming 185 JFTs and 75(roughly) 16s give us 260 platforms. So we are short by 90.Iam assuming PGs will go by 2022 if not sooner, but how long can the M3/5s last? Certainly not longer than 2025.
The option would therefore be:
A. Extra 16s if we can get them.
B. An interim Delta platform to replace the M3/5 Roles.
C. A twin seater to extend PAF air power over the Sea and provide cover to platforms plus for their longer loitering time.
D. Extend number of JFTs.
The priorities can be changed on account of availability and finances and requirements but this is what should be debated further.
The finances are even with the best of intentions not going to imrove in the next 3-5years. Tuere are multifaceted problems and the system revamp that is needed is beyond the present lot odf people at the helm of affairs. Assuming that the economy stabilizes in 2022/-25(a big IF IMHO), what options are open to us around 2022?
Another pivot in this conundrum is the J31. Where is it going to be around that time? Chosen or dumped? If chosen by PLAAN then the best platform to go for would be J31 60 in numbers. So we have it established in service by 2027. If not then we may revert to the 4 options above. This is how I perceive it. Azm is for post 2030 so I have not included it in my assesment. I suspect PAF will opt for 30 additional JFTS but again it all depends on how varrious things progress.
A
Here is how I see the near term acquisitions of the PAF.
A. Plausible but only if the US-Pakistan relations warm up. If we see the Cobras coming to Pakistan, only then I would consider the possibility of any additional used F-16s to be acquired.
B. Would love to see Qatari or UAEAF Mirages in PAF, however all indicators point to Iraq getting its hand on these birds (at least the Qatari ones in the short term)
C. No new twin-seater besides JF-17 anytime soon.
D. Only realistic option, however, its numbered are also dependent on the fiscal outlay. If the AF is looking to acquire any LIFT platforms, they will eat into the budget for producing more Thunders.
Now, as pointed out, PAC is on record stating their full capacity has not been utilized just yet, and its due to fiscal issues primarily but also related issues such as the ability to absorb new aircraft and on top, maximizing the use of platforms with still plenty of life in them, as in the case of F-7PGs.
Now, your time frames for retirement of the older types are way too optimistic. As a guide using PAF's latest acquisition, PAF started negotiations after US Congress approval for F-16s in 2005. Wasnt until Nov 2006 that a contract was finally signed and then the first aircraft rolled out around Oct 2009. So if we are to assume a new acquisition and induction of a fighter by 2025, it would have to be ordered this year or next and given our fiscal situation, I dont see it happening. So the only prudent path forward for us is to keep on churning out JF-17s for local and foreign orders.
