Jackdaws
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Except in his Gujju accent, it just doesn't have the same impact.
Congress heading for big win in Karnataka: CNN-IBN poll
- Thread starter PurpleStone
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ThinkLogically
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Don't forget that we are ruling you now and FYI it's not 1000 years.
Get ready to be ruled by Hindus forever, he he.
kris
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My family is of Rss sympathisersyevaru yevarini mosam chesaro, maaku baga thelusu.
Karnataka ayipoyindi kada, Ippudu AP nijalu bayatiki vasthayi.
And the logic of Hinduism being forward thinking, secular, etc etc are BullSHIT logic used to cow down, subjugate and divide Hindus.
Only way you can beat the other side is to learn lessons as to how these other religions stick with each other and show their might.
That is the need of the hour.
Chinna, TDP lo Christians pani chesthunnaru. Naidu gadu yemi peekadu? Poyi Bible chaduvuthunnadu pandi na koduku.
@kris See, what did I say?
What do you expect of us?
Only because of the stupid bjp central government now bjp lost a wonderful opportunity to make a stand in AP.
The jagan is sure to go to jail. Bjp could have used it well and plunged to number 2.
They we're greedy about power and not willing to settle for anything less than number 1
That's the root cause of the current bad state.
Agreed Naidu is crooked and seasoned politician, but is now modi any different??
He didn't show any class here. He lost my confidence personally.
O have been in Mysore for 3 years
Siddharamaih has no chance of winning till recently one and half year ago.
If anything goes wrong it's only bjp to blamed for
t_for_talli
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wah wah ....bade kameene ho ek dum apni DP type...
PNo to income tax
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Hung assembly means JDS and INC alliance.
Diggy
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pouncing the name of a state doesn't make anyone racist you fuckng idiot! let me see how well you can pronounce the names of north indian cities & towns
are you new to internet ?
PS: i am from karnataka !
PurpleStone
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Yeah? May be you are a North Indian or non-Kannadiga living in Karnataka. The fact is these North Indians can pronounce Tipu Sultan but cannot pronounce Shri Visvesvaraya.
@Kaniska is a racist. If he were not he would have apologized by now for mispronouncing the state. For people like @Kaniska Kannadigas are just madrasis.
Of Madrasis, Seths, Peters and Hindi-kaarans
Pheroze L. VincentFEBRUARY 20, 2014 18:33 IST
UPDATED: MAY 19, 2016 12:43 IST
SHARE ARTICLE- A A A
“They weren’t as tall as regular soldiers or rude like them. They were dark and muscular. They offered us rice and arhar dal. They were very courteous."
Contrary to the widely held notion in the South, the Madrasi stereotype often attracts preferential treatment in the North.
I first became aware of my “Madrasi” identity, ironically, by the denial of it. During a social science lesson in school in Jamshedpur, the class stumbled upon a paragraph on Tamil sage Thiruvalluvar. The teacher asked a classmate from Palakkad to explain the verses quoted from the Thirukural. Sensing a trap, he diplomatically replied that he would ask his elder sister for the exact translation and return the next day.
Valluvar’s image had greeted me in public buses during vacations in Chennai. As I did not know Tamil, my father translated for me in English the quotes from the Thirukural that accompanied Valluvar in the buses.
I rose my hand to explain the meaning but was asked to sit down by the teacher who said, “He (my friend from Palakkad) is a Madrasi. He will know the meaning better. You are a Christian. How will you know Tamil?”
My friend from Palakkad was right. This was indeed a trap; a trap of ignorance. In the class of 60 students, we were probably the only two who knew that Palakkad was in Kerala, I was from Madras, Valluvar was Tamil and Christianity had come to our respective states centuries before it had reached Jharkhand—where we stood. And although we came from districts of the erstwhile Madras Presidency, we saw ourselves as Tamilians or Malayalees and not Madrasis.
Madrasis have now become more aggressive in denying our imposed identity. There is a context to this. The Madrasi comedian character has gradually vanished from Bollywood. The violent opposition and lampooning Madrasis faced in Maharashtra, is now borne by Hindi and Bengali speakers. We’ve grown more prosperous than the North and have also increased our political clout. However, these have not necessarily changed clichés we associate with North India.
On a recent visit to Tamil Nadu, several people asked my about how dangerous Madhya Pradesh is and how brutish Hindi speaking people were and whether rapes took place on the streets of Delhi in broad daylight. They would usually end their remarks with the customary: “For them anyone from the South is Madrasi.”
Madras or Chennai, as it is called now, has been a melting pot of cultures ever since it became a city. Terms like ‘Seth’ for Hindi speakers and ‘Peter’ for English are commonly used here. These do not denote any disrespect and are used a matter-of-fact description of the person referred to.
It’s the same with the term ‘Madrasi’. Unlike the South, where police routinely round up Hindi-speaking labourers found near a scene of crime, Hindi-kaarans in the North —for reasons real and imaginary— consider Madrasis to be well behaved and intelligent. It is also assumed that a Madrasi will not have a criminal background, despite the fact that the leadership of the Naxalite movement has a disproportionately large number of Telugus (also called Madrasis).
After the recent use of pepper spray in parliament by an MP from Andhra Pradesh, a politician in Jharkhand told me, “Even when you Madrasis try to be dabanng (assertive/bully) like us, you do it high-tech.”
Delhi, like most other metropolitan cities, has a system of tenant and employee verification by the police. This is particularly troublesome for people from districts facing insurgencies in Kashmir, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal and Manipur.
One look at my verification form and the head constable said: “Seeing your moustache I thought you are from near-Gwalior, but your permanent address says Tamil Nadu so there’s no need to verify anything. You people don’t know what crime is over here.”
Perhaps, he had forgotten about forest brigand Veerappan— who had a moustache that puts mine to shame.
When I moved to Bhopal, an estate broker took me to the house of the leader of a religious ultra-nationalist organisation. They had a room to rent. At the time I didn’t know that the house-owner had faced trial for rioting.
“When I told them your name, they asked if I was mad to give their house to a person from your community. But when I said you are a Madrasi, they agreed as long as you don’t bring meat in the house,” the broker told me.
He had assumed I was a Muslim. I didn’t take the flat, but let the assumption remain. The only Madrasi Muslim they had heard of was Tipu Sultan of Mysore, from the TV series, I learnt from the house owner’s mother-in-law.
My former landlady in Delhi, who is well in to her eighties, liked to tell the neighbours that I was a journalist from Madras. She also liked to exaggerate that I had all the politicians at my beck and call. I think she did this mostly to dissuade land sharks who were encouraging her to sell the house.
She went a step further. Without my knowledge she had even arranged for me to meet a prospective bride—a lawyer whose ancestors migrated from West Punjab, with my former landlady, during Partition.
Fortunately for me, I was transferred to Bhopal and my bride-to-be married someone else. The day I was leaving, my landlady said, “I gave you this house because you are a Madrasi. Finding you a girl is my duty, which I did because you are a good Madrasi,” she said.
She then recounted another one of her Partition tales, which came to her in flashes.
“We fled from our zamindari near Lyallpur (now Faisalabad) and took shelter in a church,” she said. “My father was very scared because my sisters and I were young. No light was lit and we muted our sobs as there were gangs roaming outside. My uncle had gone to the garrison for help and we feared the mob had got him. Suddenly we heard the sound of a truck and people jumping out. We thought that this was the end, until my uncle banged the church door and yelled, “Fauj hai” (It’s the army).”
Her description of the troops is quite remarkable. “They weren’t as tall as regular soldiers or rude like them. They were dark and muscular. They offered us rice and arhar dal. They were very courteous. The badges on their shoulders read— MADRAS”
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/blogs/blogs-end-of-the-day/article5709975.ece
Spot on mate...It was a typo mistake from my side..i would have apologized to people who are genuinely love to be proud to be a Karnataka...But that poster is a sympathizer to people who love to kill Hindus..His entire world revolve around Muslims..religion and everything surrounding them...And suddenly based on my typo mistake..he feels that i am racist....
Soumitra
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Karnataka is Heading in The Saffron Direction
By DR. PRAVEEN PATIL
All the three big leaders, apart from Modi, who have been attracting the maximum crowds were deployed in just one roadshow on the last day of campaigning. BJP’s national president, Amit Bhai Shah, Chief Ministerial candidate, B.S. Yeddyiurappa and the extremely popular B. Sriramulu all camped in the distant Badami on Thursday where Congress Chief Minister Siddaramaiah was trying his luck out as a second “safer” bet.
This was a surprising choice at the very outset because one would have logically expected that BJP would have probably chosen Bangalore city or even some other urban conglomeration like Hubli-Dharwad or Belgaum for the final day blitzkrieg in order to maximize their gains. Yet, the party in its wisdom chose Badami to expend all its energy for that one final push and thereby lies the story of Karnataka assembly elections 2018.
Electoral trend in Badami had turned in the last one week and Siddaramaiah no longer had the same confidence of the people. The voters of Badami had begun to question his reasoning for choosing this historic town as his electoral vehicle. The caste arithmetic was in any case against the CM as Lingayats and Nayaks held the key to winning Badami. MAPi – Micro Analytical Projections (INTELLIGENCE) – Election Tracker has also begun to pick this trend as Siddaramaiah’s lead first reduced from 8 percentage points to 3 percentage points and now stands at a mere 1 percentage point.
In fact, our statistical models and algorithms give a special weightage of 3 points to big leaders like Siddaramaiah – because historically Indian voters have tended to be status-quoists when it comes to powerful leaders – otherwise, CM is already in greater trouble in Badami. Karnataka’s political history though has been a graveyard of Chief Ministers and powerful politicians in the past. For instance, the mighty Nijalingappa was defeated in Davangere in 1967. Similarly, Virendra Patil, Ramakrishna Hegde, Devegowda etc. have all met their waterloo battles at one point or other. Looks like it is Siddaramaiah’s turn now.
Badami is just the trailer, Karnataka on the whole will turn saffron today even as a mini-wave is building up. Powerful BJP strategists who were worried that the party had stagnated at around 75-80 seat range until a fortnight ago are now extremely confident about BJP coming to power. Even MAPi Election Tracker is now beginning to show that BJP has already touched the 100-seat mark, while Congress is stuck at around 60 seats. All BJP has to now do is convert about a dozen close contests and the party would be through to a clear majority.
Yet, most news channels, journalists and pollsters have been peddling these theories ranging from a hung assembly with a slight advantage to Congress to Congress being an SLP (Single Largest party) to Congress winning a clear majority. Why are they indulging in such skullduggery? The answer to that question is two-fold:
Let us simply ignore the first set for their lack of knowledge or understanding. It is the second set that are most dangerous because time and again they have been part of those groups who have tried to manufacture an electoral verdict. The game is extremely sinister in Karnataka because it was almost a do-or-die battle for Rahul Gandhi, the self-anointed heir to India’s throne. Why do big news channels and journalists do this when it has the potential to affect their reputation and careers? For instance, why would a news channel deliberately air a completely corrupted CSDS survey that has been created with false numbers and lies? Similarly, why would so many media houses constantly quote a Cfore survey despite knowing that it is a Congress sponsored exercise?
If anything, Indian democracy is truly in danger because of media creatures like these who are willingly manufacturing a false narrative using fake polls. For 4-5 years now, ever since the ascendancy of Narendra Modi, this drama has been unfolding in every election season, but Karnataka should be the time when we should say “enough is enough”. Civil society and the government should demand accountability now, for future elections in India are in danger of being affected by such attempts to manufacture trends.
Any electoral projection is after all an exercise in probability and therefore fraught with danger of misinterpretations. So why are we so sure about our understanding of Karnataka assembly elections 2018 apart from deploying MAPi-Election Tracker which in any case is a new data-tech experiment? Let us look at five metrics that should be clear to any sane political analyst:
1] The Core Voter Concept: In every geography of India each political party has a core-vote and an addendum vote and this is a base principle on which most credible electoral projections are built. For example, the VWISM (Voter Weightage Index Sampling Methodology) statistical model built by 5Forty3 Datalabs which has had near 100% accuracy across India in some 20 elections has been built on a foundation of this “core voter theory”.
In Karnataka, both Congress and BJP have a core-vote base of 29% each as of now. Congress party’s core vote-base is built on Kurubas, Minorities and SC Right (mostly made up of Chalavadi SC community). Simply using terms like AHINDA without quantifying the actual core-voters is nothing but lazy journalism. BJP, on the other hand, also has a core-vote base of 29% consisting of Lingayats, SC Left+Others (consisting of Madigas, Lamanis, Bovis etc.) and Brahmins. The key difference is that Congress’s core-vote is spread across the state whereas 92% of BJP’s vote base is concentrated in just 120 assembly seats of the state. This is why BJP gets much higher seat conversion ratios than the Congress party – its simple math, no rocket science at all.
A sprinkling of addendum votes then gets added to this core-vote base of both the main rivals. In this election, the Eedigas, Kabbaligas, Bunts, ‘urban Hindus’ are getting on to BJP bandwagon, while smaller OBCs, ‘secular urbans’ etc. are on the Congress’s side. It can be stated without any doubt that BJP enjoys a clear edge on this metric simply because of concentration of core-votes and better traction of addendum votes.
2] The Campaign Impact: In every election, there will be those 5-7% fence sitters who are not on to any party but decide to vote in a particular way after the campaign unfolds. A majority of these fence-sitters belong to what we term as “no wastage” category, because these voters invariably want to vote on a bandwagon effect to the leading party as they don’t want to waste their votes. This is an uniquely Indian voter psyche, wherein these non-partisan voters simply have one philosophy that their vote should not go for a wasted cause. This is a phenomenon we observe in every election in every state from Uttar Pradesh to Kerala and West Bengal to Karnataka.
Anybody who has been to Karnataka over the last fortnight will tell you whose campaign has been effective. One has to be blind as a bat not to see the Modi impact. Literally lakhs of people creating Mexican waves to stop Kannada translators from interfering a Modi speech, those chants of “Modi, Modi” wringing through the air, the overtly enthusiastic response to Modi’s clarion call of “Sarkara Badlisi, BJP Gellisi” and last but not the least, the atmosphere around the venue where youth are thronging with war cries of “Bharat Mata ki Jai” and waving flags and what not. Mind you, all of this was getting transmitted to every TV in the state on a virtually daily basis for the last week of campaign. Should one spell out what impact it would have had on those ‘fence-sitters’?
Wait, there is more. While the Modi blitzkrieg was unleashing itself, literally under the radar was B.S. Yeddyurappa who was crisscrossing the entire North Karnataka Lingayat belt reaffirming the support base and reassuring them about his leadership under the threat of separate religion. Where were Congress Lingayat leaders at the same time? Absolutely invisible. M.B. Patil, the so called Siddaramaiah’s answer to B.S.Y and the face of “Lingayat Minority Religion” just never ventured out of his constituency because he is himself on a sticky wicket. Since Congress never campaigned or explained why Lingayat separate religion was needed, the backlash began to unfold in the last days of campaign and is now threatening to turn into a Lingayat tsunami against the Congress party. Ask the hapless Congress contestants in North Karnataka districts like Bidar and Bagalkot and see how they will privately curse M.B. Patil and Siddaramiah for their plight. In fact, the Congress campaign was mostly limited to press conferences of former PM Manmohan Singh and Anand Sharma etc. while Siddaramaiah was the only star speaker in the rallies.
Similarly, Sriramulu’s roadshows and corner meetings attracted such huge Nayak crowd, especially the youth, that it now threatens to be a virtually one-sided affair in the ST/Nayak belt of Chitradurga-Bellary-Raichur districts. Congress never had a counter to this. The only weak alternative that was offered was Satish Jharkiholi who was in for a rude shock when he campaigned in CM’s ‘safe seat’ Badami. When Jharkiholi visited the Nayak dominated areas of Badami and sought votes for Congress, he met with a resounding “No” from the voters. There you have it, the second metric also favors BJP.
3] Anti-incumbency: Over the last few days many journalists have para-dropped from Delhi and have made sweeping statements like “there is no visible anti-incumbency in Karnataka”. This is now a new catch phrase which every second journalist is parroting. What is visible and invisible anti-incumbency anyway? In fact, you can bet your last dime that immediately after Karnataka election, every journalist worth his salt will talk about anti-incumbency sweeping India. It is like they all get together in the press club and decide what to parrot from now on.
There are actually two types of anti-incumbencies in India. One is issue based anti-incumbency and the second is personality based anti-incumbency. For example, the entire north and central Karnataka belt is reeling under a major water crisis which has angered voters to such an extent that many sitting MLAs are not even allowed to campaign in their areas. This is an issue based anti-incumbency which will have a big impact on election day. Then there is personality based hyperlocal anti-incumbency wherein MLAs are themselves very unpopular because of lack of performance and accessibility. Since Congress had the largest number of MLAs and since it was also in power, the maximum anti-incumbency is against Congress MLAs. For instance, take the case of Vinay Kulkarni in Dharwad. There have been a whopping 81 murders in his constituency in five years, how does one expect the voters to vote him back? There are many such examples across the state. Therefore, yes, the Congress government is suffering from both kinds of anti-incumbencies.
4] The Index of Opposition Unity: In every election, pundits analyze the IOU, but in Karnataka they simply failed to inform the Congress about this crucial factor. BJP and JDS are virtually fighting this election with an understanding in three-dozen seats. Take the case of Chamundeshwari where CM is again struggling because of massive Vokkaliga anger against him. Now, if BJP manages to successfully transfer its core-votes of Lingayats and Valmikis to JDS, Siddaramaiah is virtually guaranteed of a defeat.
This was a very bad strategy of Congress party to have a dual fight with BJP as well as JDS. It also tells us that this template of creating a big tent of an united opposition in 2019 is nothing but a pipedream. It sounds nice in theory to write about how Maya and Akhilesh will come together for their own survival, but extremely difficult in practice to match these party structures beyond temporary arrangements like bypolls.
5] The Bhagya Factor: If there is one dark horse among all the factors, it is the various Bhagya schemes of the Siddharamaiah government, especially the Anna Bhagya scheme of providing rice at 2 rupees to the poor. Till now none of the ground data has shown that the Bhagya factor has had any significant impact on voting decision. Could it be possible that there is a silent vote for Siddharamaiah’s welfare schemes? One cannot rule that out, but it seems highly unlikely simply because unlike other South Indian states Karnataka has never displayed a penchant for such populist ideas.
Four out of five metrics are clearly pointing at an impending BJP victory in Karnataka. Rest of it is all noise – the Kannada pride, Reddy brothers, corruption issue all these are nothing but media talking points with virtually zero traction on the ground.
So as Karnataka goes to polls today, what is the most likely outcome? At the outset let us be very clear, BJP is unlikely to achieve a UP like sweep simply because it is not in contest in almost 4 out of 28 districts of the state. Essentially BJP is contesting in 180 assembly segments and the party has a good strike rate of 60% and above in these, but to achieve a UP like sweep, it will have to have a strike rate of 75% and above. Hence, the most likely outcome of today’s election is that BJP would either get a simple majority or come very close to a majority.
You can track all the 224 assembly segments of Karnataka by using MAPi Election Tracker on ChunavpediA here
By DR. PRAVEEN PATIL
All the three big leaders, apart from Modi, who have been attracting the maximum crowds were deployed in just one roadshow on the last day of campaigning. BJP’s national president, Amit Bhai Shah, Chief Ministerial candidate, B.S. Yeddyiurappa and the extremely popular B. Sriramulu all camped in the distant Badami on Thursday where Congress Chief Minister Siddaramaiah was trying his luck out as a second “safer” bet.
This was a surprising choice at the very outset because one would have logically expected that BJP would have probably chosen Bangalore city or even some other urban conglomeration like Hubli-Dharwad or Belgaum for the final day blitzkrieg in order to maximize their gains. Yet, the party in its wisdom chose Badami to expend all its energy for that one final push and thereby lies the story of Karnataka assembly elections 2018.
Electoral trend in Badami had turned in the last one week and Siddaramaiah no longer had the same confidence of the people. The voters of Badami had begun to question his reasoning for choosing this historic town as his electoral vehicle. The caste arithmetic was in any case against the CM as Lingayats and Nayaks held the key to winning Badami. MAPi – Micro Analytical Projections (INTELLIGENCE) – Election Tracker has also begun to pick this trend as Siddaramaiah’s lead first reduced from 8 percentage points to 3 percentage points and now stands at a mere 1 percentage point.
In fact, our statistical models and algorithms give a special weightage of 3 points to big leaders like Siddaramaiah – because historically Indian voters have tended to be status-quoists when it comes to powerful leaders – otherwise, CM is already in greater trouble in Badami. Karnataka’s political history though has been a graveyard of Chief Ministers and powerful politicians in the past. For instance, the mighty Nijalingappa was defeated in Davangere in 1967. Similarly, Virendra Patil, Ramakrishna Hegde, Devegowda etc. have all met their waterloo battles at one point or other. Looks like it is Siddaramaiah’s turn now.
Badami is just the trailer, Karnataka on the whole will turn saffron today even as a mini-wave is building up. Powerful BJP strategists who were worried that the party had stagnated at around 75-80 seat range until a fortnight ago are now extremely confident about BJP coming to power. Even MAPi Election Tracker is now beginning to show that BJP has already touched the 100-seat mark, while Congress is stuck at around 60 seats. All BJP has to now do is convert about a dozen close contests and the party would be through to a clear majority.
Yet, most news channels, journalists and pollsters have been peddling these theories ranging from a hung assembly with a slight advantage to Congress to Congress being an SLP (Single Largest party) to Congress winning a clear majority. Why are they indulging in such skullduggery? The answer to that question is two-fold:
- Most of these journalists are plain incompetent as they have zero knowledge of elections or electoral data analysis despite being star anchors and columnists. Same holds true for those dime-a-dozen pollsters who pick random numbers from thin air.
- Some of these journalists and pollsters are doing this deliberately by fudging their data and analysis despite signals to the contrary.
Let us simply ignore the first set for their lack of knowledge or understanding. It is the second set that are most dangerous because time and again they have been part of those groups who have tried to manufacture an electoral verdict. The game is extremely sinister in Karnataka because it was almost a do-or-die battle for Rahul Gandhi, the self-anointed heir to India’s throne. Why do big news channels and journalists do this when it has the potential to affect their reputation and careers? For instance, why would a news channel deliberately air a completely corrupted CSDS survey that has been created with false numbers and lies? Similarly, why would so many media houses constantly quote a Cfore survey despite knowing that it is a Congress sponsored exercise?
If anything, Indian democracy is truly in danger because of media creatures like these who are willingly manufacturing a false narrative using fake polls. For 4-5 years now, ever since the ascendancy of Narendra Modi, this drama has been unfolding in every election season, but Karnataka should be the time when we should say “enough is enough”. Civil society and the government should demand accountability now, for future elections in India are in danger of being affected by such attempts to manufacture trends.
Any electoral projection is after all an exercise in probability and therefore fraught with danger of misinterpretations. So why are we so sure about our understanding of Karnataka assembly elections 2018 apart from deploying MAPi-Election Tracker which in any case is a new data-tech experiment? Let us look at five metrics that should be clear to any sane political analyst:
1] The Core Voter Concept: In every geography of India each political party has a core-vote and an addendum vote and this is a base principle on which most credible electoral projections are built. For example, the VWISM (Voter Weightage Index Sampling Methodology) statistical model built by 5Forty3 Datalabs which has had near 100% accuracy across India in some 20 elections has been built on a foundation of this “core voter theory”.
In Karnataka, both Congress and BJP have a core-vote base of 29% each as of now. Congress party’s core vote-base is built on Kurubas, Minorities and SC Right (mostly made up of Chalavadi SC community). Simply using terms like AHINDA without quantifying the actual core-voters is nothing but lazy journalism. BJP, on the other hand, also has a core-vote base of 29% consisting of Lingayats, SC Left+Others (consisting of Madigas, Lamanis, Bovis etc.) and Brahmins. The key difference is that Congress’s core-vote is spread across the state whereas 92% of BJP’s vote base is concentrated in just 120 assembly seats of the state. This is why BJP gets much higher seat conversion ratios than the Congress party – its simple math, no rocket science at all.
A sprinkling of addendum votes then gets added to this core-vote base of both the main rivals. In this election, the Eedigas, Kabbaligas, Bunts, ‘urban Hindus’ are getting on to BJP bandwagon, while smaller OBCs, ‘secular urbans’ etc. are on the Congress’s side. It can be stated without any doubt that BJP enjoys a clear edge on this metric simply because of concentration of core-votes and better traction of addendum votes.
2] The Campaign Impact: In every election, there will be those 5-7% fence sitters who are not on to any party but decide to vote in a particular way after the campaign unfolds. A majority of these fence-sitters belong to what we term as “no wastage” category, because these voters invariably want to vote on a bandwagon effect to the leading party as they don’t want to waste their votes. This is an uniquely Indian voter psyche, wherein these non-partisan voters simply have one philosophy that their vote should not go for a wasted cause. This is a phenomenon we observe in every election in every state from Uttar Pradesh to Kerala and West Bengal to Karnataka.
Anybody who has been to Karnataka over the last fortnight will tell you whose campaign has been effective. One has to be blind as a bat not to see the Modi impact. Literally lakhs of people creating Mexican waves to stop Kannada translators from interfering a Modi speech, those chants of “Modi, Modi” wringing through the air, the overtly enthusiastic response to Modi’s clarion call of “Sarkara Badlisi, BJP Gellisi” and last but not the least, the atmosphere around the venue where youth are thronging with war cries of “Bharat Mata ki Jai” and waving flags and what not. Mind you, all of this was getting transmitted to every TV in the state on a virtually daily basis for the last week of campaign. Should one spell out what impact it would have had on those ‘fence-sitters’?
Wait, there is more. While the Modi blitzkrieg was unleashing itself, literally under the radar was B.S. Yeddyurappa who was crisscrossing the entire North Karnataka Lingayat belt reaffirming the support base and reassuring them about his leadership under the threat of separate religion. Where were Congress Lingayat leaders at the same time? Absolutely invisible. M.B. Patil, the so called Siddaramaiah’s answer to B.S.Y and the face of “Lingayat Minority Religion” just never ventured out of his constituency because he is himself on a sticky wicket. Since Congress never campaigned or explained why Lingayat separate religion was needed, the backlash began to unfold in the last days of campaign and is now threatening to turn into a Lingayat tsunami against the Congress party. Ask the hapless Congress contestants in North Karnataka districts like Bidar and Bagalkot and see how they will privately curse M.B. Patil and Siddaramiah for their plight. In fact, the Congress campaign was mostly limited to press conferences of former PM Manmohan Singh and Anand Sharma etc. while Siddaramaiah was the only star speaker in the rallies.
Similarly, Sriramulu’s roadshows and corner meetings attracted such huge Nayak crowd, especially the youth, that it now threatens to be a virtually one-sided affair in the ST/Nayak belt of Chitradurga-Bellary-Raichur districts. Congress never had a counter to this. The only weak alternative that was offered was Satish Jharkiholi who was in for a rude shock when he campaigned in CM’s ‘safe seat’ Badami. When Jharkiholi visited the Nayak dominated areas of Badami and sought votes for Congress, he met with a resounding “No” from the voters. There you have it, the second metric also favors BJP.
3] Anti-incumbency: Over the last few days many journalists have para-dropped from Delhi and have made sweeping statements like “there is no visible anti-incumbency in Karnataka”. This is now a new catch phrase which every second journalist is parroting. What is visible and invisible anti-incumbency anyway? In fact, you can bet your last dime that immediately after Karnataka election, every journalist worth his salt will talk about anti-incumbency sweeping India. It is like they all get together in the press club and decide what to parrot from now on.
There are actually two types of anti-incumbencies in India. One is issue based anti-incumbency and the second is personality based anti-incumbency. For example, the entire north and central Karnataka belt is reeling under a major water crisis which has angered voters to such an extent that many sitting MLAs are not even allowed to campaign in their areas. This is an issue based anti-incumbency which will have a big impact on election day. Then there is personality based hyperlocal anti-incumbency wherein MLAs are themselves very unpopular because of lack of performance and accessibility. Since Congress had the largest number of MLAs and since it was also in power, the maximum anti-incumbency is against Congress MLAs. For instance, take the case of Vinay Kulkarni in Dharwad. There have been a whopping 81 murders in his constituency in five years, how does one expect the voters to vote him back? There are many such examples across the state. Therefore, yes, the Congress government is suffering from both kinds of anti-incumbencies.
4] The Index of Opposition Unity: In every election, pundits analyze the IOU, but in Karnataka they simply failed to inform the Congress about this crucial factor. BJP and JDS are virtually fighting this election with an understanding in three-dozen seats. Take the case of Chamundeshwari where CM is again struggling because of massive Vokkaliga anger against him. Now, if BJP manages to successfully transfer its core-votes of Lingayats and Valmikis to JDS, Siddaramaiah is virtually guaranteed of a defeat.
This was a very bad strategy of Congress party to have a dual fight with BJP as well as JDS. It also tells us that this template of creating a big tent of an united opposition in 2019 is nothing but a pipedream. It sounds nice in theory to write about how Maya and Akhilesh will come together for their own survival, but extremely difficult in practice to match these party structures beyond temporary arrangements like bypolls.
5] The Bhagya Factor: If there is one dark horse among all the factors, it is the various Bhagya schemes of the Siddharamaiah government, especially the Anna Bhagya scheme of providing rice at 2 rupees to the poor. Till now none of the ground data has shown that the Bhagya factor has had any significant impact on voting decision. Could it be possible that there is a silent vote for Siddharamaiah’s welfare schemes? One cannot rule that out, but it seems highly unlikely simply because unlike other South Indian states Karnataka has never displayed a penchant for such populist ideas.
Four out of five metrics are clearly pointing at an impending BJP victory in Karnataka. Rest of it is all noise – the Kannada pride, Reddy brothers, corruption issue all these are nothing but media talking points with virtually zero traction on the ground.
So as Karnataka goes to polls today, what is the most likely outcome? At the outset let us be very clear, BJP is unlikely to achieve a UP like sweep simply because it is not in contest in almost 4 out of 28 districts of the state. Essentially BJP is contesting in 180 assembly segments and the party has a good strike rate of 60% and above in these, but to achieve a UP like sweep, it will have to have a strike rate of 75% and above. Hence, the most likely outcome of today’s election is that BJP would either get a simple majority or come very close to a majority.
You can track all the 224 assembly segments of Karnataka by using MAPi Election Tracker on ChunavpediA here
Diggy
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You don't have to apologize mate , like a typical pakistani false flagger trying to create tensions between northies & southies . We kannadigas are not suffering from any victimhood like muslims & neither are we so dumb!
PurpleStone
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Still finding excuses for your racist comments? Still your ego will not let you apologise to the Kannadigas.
Diggy
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lol stop representing us man , from when did jihadis became our representatives , i get pissed off whenever that asshle danish ali from JDS is introduced as karnataka representative & he starts screaming on TV. We are being seen as a next kerala.
PurpleStone
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Yeah now a racist like @Kaniska will represent Kannadigas. I do not understand how any Kannadiga would accept such racist comments.
pothead
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1. Do let me know what stand BJP needed to take in AP?
2. No RSS guy would support Jagan. Even if Modi personally asks to vote for Jagan, I won't be voting for this guy.
3. There is no number 2 in AP. Christians and Muslims will never abandon Jagan. The only way BJP will increase its base in AP is at the cost of Naidu.
4. Jagan knows this very well and made his whole movement on "special category", which everyone knows is a dead horse. Naidu either panicked or needed a scape goat for 2019, hence he ditched BJP.
5. Regarding who showed class, go and check who ditched whom and who is abusing whom. Have you even watched video of Naidu Brother in law abusing Modi's mother?
Naidu is a conniving b@stard. This time though I think he has bitten more then he can chew.
PurpleStone
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Why is special category for AP a dead horse?
Why was Venkaiah Naidu sidelined in BJP by making him VP?
Even Pavan Kalyan is in a tight spot. No one in AP in their right mind would be voting for either Congress or BJP irrespective of how corrupt YSRC or TDP may be. BJP was given a laddoo by Congress when AP was divided. Instead of eating it, BJP tried to play foot ball with the Laddoo. It is BJP's own making.
Vinasha Kale Vipariti Bhuddi
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