Debate this : Obama fears Pakistan’s disintegration

[DGMO]

WASHINGTON: US President Barack Obama told his staff in late 2011 that Pakistan could ‘disintegrate’ and set off a scramble for its weapons, claims a new book by David E. Sanger, chief Washington correspondent of The New York Times.

I think the word disintegrate is slightly dramatic, but we seem to be doing our very best to achieve this, and are very much on that path. I think the nuclear weapons are the focus here, when the real focus should be the fact we're sliding into chaos on so many levels and how we can arrest that decline, if not reverse it.

Our economy is in a real poor state. All indicators point to a bleak picture where we're heading towards bankruptcy. Next year, we have to pay the IMF $3.2 billion, and we don't have a dollar spare.

The energy crisis is at its most acute, and worse than anything I've ever known. I spoke to my uncle in Wah Cantt on Sunday, and he said that there's 3-4 hours loadshedding at a time. This is Wah, an area where load shedding was unheard of because of the infrastructre to cater for the defence industry.

The political turmoil continues and is a complete joke. There is no democracy but feudals and mafia men in power. There is no confidence from the electorate, nor is there any confidence from the business community or foreign investors.

The judiciary seems intent on pursuing cases for point-scoring purposes, but doesn't achieve any notable convictions. Which politician, general or businessman of any real note has been convicted of corruption or sent to jail in the past 4.5 years? How much have the lower and local courts improved? They've continued to worsen and the pace of justice has come to a complete halt.

The law and order whether it's terrorism or sectarian related is dire. Murder, rape and lawlessness continues to thrive. As one relative told me when I asked him about kidknappings etc, "it happens during the day, there is no fear of the police or anyone".

Water management and our policies to improve this have been non-existant, with little preparation for the impending crisis we will see here in the next 10-20 years.

Our ever-increasing population, lack of family-planning education and the strain this places on natural resources will again see negative results, if not already.

Our huge defence expenditure, coupled with debt-servicing consumes around 60% of our budget. What do we have to give towards public development when this is the situation? The rupee against sterling sits at Rs.147, FDI declines, ex-pats refuse to come back to visit Pakistan, inflation surges, job creation dwindles, state industries dying, corruption prospers, crime is rampant.

This is the state of Pakistan today, and some may say that disintegration is well on course. The nukes will be safe, don't you worry about that. There is an incredible level of security around them, which spread to multiple layers.

It's just a shame that the Pakistani nation can't enjoy the same level of comfort, security, maintenance and peace as those WMD's.

 

[Mercenary]

The American plan all along has been to insist on policies which damage the stability of Pakistan. This instability will then represent an opportunity to create scare mongering and therefore a reason to perhaps cease pakistans nukes.

You cannot have it both ways; create instability via drones and then complain about the subsequent instability created by the drones.

How are the drones creating instability?

Infact the drones have helped to stabilize Pakistan.

So many leading terrorists have been killed and others are running for cover instead of busy planning attacks on Pakistan.

I think the word disintegrate is slightly dramatic, but we seem to be doing our very best to achieve this, and are very much on that path. I think the nuclear weapons are the focus here, when the real focus should be the fact we're sliding into chaos on so many levels and how we can arrest that decline, if not reverse it.

Our economy is in a real poor state. All indicators point to a bleak picture where we're heading towards bankruptcy. Next year, we have to pay the IMF $3.2 billion, and we don't have a dollar spare.

The energy crisis is at its most acute, and worse than anything I've ever known. I spoke to my uncle in Wah Cantt on Sunday, and he said that there's 3-4 hours loadshedding at a time. This is Wah, an area where load shedding was unheard of because of the infrastructre to cater for the defence industry.

The political turmoil continues and is a complete joke. There is no democracy but feudals and mafia men in power. There is no confidence from the electorate, nor is there any confidence from the business community or foreign investors.

The judiciary seems intent on pursuing cases for point-scoring purposes, but doesn't achieve any notable convictions. Which politician, general or businessman of any real note has been convicted of corruption or sent to jail in the past 4.5 years? How much have the lower and local courts improved? They've continued to worsen and the pace of justice has come to a complete halt.

The law and order whether it's terrorism or sectarian related is dire. Murder, rape and lawlessness continues to thrive. As one relative told me when I asked him about kidknappings etc, "it happens during the day, there is no fear of the police or anyone".

Water management and our policies to improve this have been non-existant, with little preparation for the impending crisis we will see here in the next 10-20 years.

Our ever-increasing population, lack of family-planning education and the strain this places on natural resources will again see negative results, if not already.

Our huge defence expenditure, coupled with debt-servicing consumes around 60% of our budget. What do we have to give towards public development when this is the situation? The rupee against sterling sits at Rs.147, FDI declines, ex-pats refuse to come back to visit Pakistan, inflation surges, job creation dwindles, state industries dying, corruption prospers, crime is rampant.

This is the state of Pakistan today, and some may say that disintegration is well on course. The nukes will be safe, don't you worry about that. There is an incredible level of security around them, which spread to multiple layers.

It's just a shame that the Pakistani nation can't enjoy the same level of comfort, security, maintenance and peace as those WMD's.

All this could end if Pakistan makes peace with India, downsizes its military, end the jihad nonsense, and use the money to invest in road, electricity, and other infrastructure.

But who am I kidding. Pakistanis are too stupid to do anything to the benefit of their country. What a nightmare Pakistan has become.

 

[DGMO]

How are the drones creating instability?All this could end if Pakistan makes peace with India, downsizes its military, end the jihad nonsense, and use the money to invest in road, electricity, and other infrastructure.

But who am I kidding. Pakistanis are too stupid to do anything to the benefit of their country. What a nightmare Pakistan has become.

And I want nothing more than that. The short-sighted policy that our 'leaders' have adopted over the past 20-30 years (if not beyond that) has been a total disaster.

If I can live in peace, and have extraordinarily good relations with my neighbour here in London who happens to be Indian, then why can't Pakistani's 3,700 miles away? They can, but don't let the military tell you that. Why bury the bogeyman that pays for our perks?

The culture of hatred that has been a state policy of indoctrination is falling away, and people are seeing the truth with the help of a liberalised media with their own eyes.

We're too steep in the morass that we find ourselves in. There is no real honest talent at the top to take this country by the scruff of the neck, and drive it to prosperity and stability. Making a quick buck, looting, and our lack of fear of God is why we're here in this state.

Like rabid dogs we're on the path to destruction.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

Let Imran Khan come to power and we can see what he has to offer as right now things in Pakistan is like a circus parade. Pakistan will protect it's nuke assets as that is the ace in the deck of cards but the real nightmare is if jihadis infiltrate the places where the nukes are stored that would be Obama's concern. We saw with the PNS Mehran attack that the army also does have it's share of militants that could help it gain access to places it would not be possible otherwise.

they were discharged years ago and had no existing affiliation with the army or the navy....given how disgruntled they were, they shared knowledge of the base with terrorists...it was a one-off incident

it was also done to provoke a reaction by Pakistan


this thread is pointless...Pakistan will only act aggressively if it is attacked. It has no regional ambitions. I wish i could say the same about some other countries

 

[lem34]

Surely you jest.. Unless you want to take out tens of thousands of your Palestinian Muslim brothers along with Tel aviv as a part of your testosterone induced boast of attacking Israel.

Kind of a bad trade too.. Killing a million jews at the cost of 180 million Pakistani Muslims

I am being no more gung ho than any who choose to discuss the invasion of a nation of near 220 million with nukes. I hope it never happens. But that is what deterrence is about. You shaft us. We will shaft u2.

 

[Mercenary]

they were discharged years ago and had no existing affiliation with the army or the navy....given how disgruntled they were, they shared knowledge of the base with terrorists...it was a one-off incident

it was also done to provoke a reaction by Pakistan


this thread is pointless...Pakistan will only act aggressively if it is attacked. It has no regional ambitions. I wish i could say the same about some other countries

Didnt Pakistan start the 1965 War?

And then attack India in 1971 War?

And then start the 1999 Kargil War?

Pakistan has been all too trigger happy in starting wars thinking it has the martial races to win victory over inferior Indians.

 

[lem34]

And the basis for this astronomically intelligent analysis is ?

I remember reading some article that if any nuclear powered county is attacked it could result in a chain reaction. Pakistan would be worried that in any destruction it suffered Indian might take advantage etc

 

[DrNSAID]

And the basis for this astronomically intelligent analysis is ?

Ask Brajesh Mishra.

 

[lem34]

I dont know why paksitnais always end up with nuke war

well people keep asking us what if you are attacked? Would you not use all your force to defend an attack on India?

How are the drones creating instability?

Infact the drones have helped to stabilize Pakistan.

So many leading terrorists have been killed and others are running for cover instead of busy planning attacks on Pakistan.



All this could end if Pakistan makes peace with India, downsizes its military, end the jihad nonsense, and use the money to invest in road, electricity, and other infrastructure.

But who am I kidding. Pakistanis are too stupid to do anything to the benefit of their country. What a nightmare Pakistan has become.

There would be no Pakistan if money was not spent on security. Look at the fate of Muslims in India where stats are available showing that they are suffering discrimination in all fields

 

[Caine]

I am being no more gung ho than any who choose to discuss the invasion of a nation of near 220 million with nukes. I hope it never happens. But that is what deterrence is about. You shaft us. We will shaft u2.

And where are these discussions of Pakistani invasion originating from? Mostly Pakistani sources. Right?

And again, pray, tell me.. How is Pakistan making partially successful nuclear strikes against Israel as a dying gesture of a country of 220 million in anyway shaft USA? For some hawks in the GOP, it might even be considered as an acceptable trade.

 

[Mercenary]

well people keep asking us what if you are attacked? Would you not use all your force to defend an attack on India?



There would be no Pakistan if money was not spent on security. Look at the fate of Muslims in India where stats are available showing that they are suffering discrimination in all fields

I have a lot of Muslim Indians as friends and they have all told me that they are perfectly happy in India.

I am sure there is discrimination just as there is discrimination against African-Americans in USA. But ask any African-American would he want to live in Africa or America....they would choose America.

 

[karan.1970]

There would be no Pakistan if money was not spent on security. Look at the fate of Muslims in India where stats are available showing that they are suffering discrimination in all fields

Well, I dont see many muslims from India applying for immigration to Pakistan now.. Do I? Who am I kidding.. Who would immigrate to Pakistan these days

 

[lem34]

Well, I dont see many muslims from India applying for immigration to Pakistan now.. Do I? Who am I kidding.. Who would immigrate to Pakistan these days

Do not want to go off topic but will give you a link where you will be able to learn more about your country and the discrimination people suffer.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/169383-zillion-reasons-escape-india.html

Back to topic we needed and need to spend money on defence as we have India as a neighbour and it seems a favourite pastime of some to consider destabalising and hurting Pakistan and forcing us to live a life that a billion Indians want to leave

I have a lot of Muslim Indians as friends and they have all told me that they are perfectly happy in India.

I am sure there is discrimination just as there is discrimination against African-Americans in USA. But ask any African-American would he want to live in Africa or America....they would choose America.

Go check this link and learn about discrimination mate:

http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/169383-zillion-reasons-escape-india.html

 

[MilSpec]

Do not want to go off topic but will give you a link where you will be able to learn more about your country and the discrimination people suffer.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/169383-zillion-reasons-escape-india.html

Back to topic we needed and need to spend money on defence as we have India as a neighbour and it seems a favourite pastime of some to consider destabalising and hurting Pakistan and forcing us to live a life that a billion Indians want to leave



Go check this link and learn about discrimination mate:

http://www.defence.pk/forums/world-affairs/169383-zillion-reasons-escape-india.html

off topic banter with the intent to derail the thread with display of Anti-india/ anti- jewish hate spewing , as always

 

[MilSpec]

With ref to question 3 of the op,

Indian interest, - Strong paksitan with a working democracy and peaceful relations with India. Keep US out of the area at all costs, also ensure minimal chinese presence in the region.

In case there is a the so called disintegration of pakistan, and coalition forces do try to recover the nuclear material, what if they do so with a certain political faction on board which tries to polarize the society into pro and anti army factions. What if media potrays army with a negative picture.
Finally what if Pakistan surrenders to coalition forces of US/ Nato instead of fighting. If it does there will be the most minimal casualty and destruction.


Taking down everyone with us scenario seems a bit ridiculous because:

If Pakistan attacks US bases in Afghanistan, it will be the next pearl harbor, and we all know what comes next.

If pakistan attacks Israel or India , then we will witness worlds largest can of whoop-***.

If Pakistan decides to attack important installations in middle east - then 10-20 years of additional jihad

If pakistan destroys own assets or surrenders them to Nato, least destruction assured but will be a nightmare for India with US and china making a grilled cheese sandwich out of India.