A discussion on Turkey's foreign policy in Iraq and Syria since 2003 US invasion of Iraq

[kalu_miah]

I am a well wisher of Turkey and do not like to see this country making mistakes in foreign policy. I hope to see a strong united Turkey become a great example of a developed and democratic country that other Muslim majority countries can follow.

Like Erdogan, I feel that Turkey made a huge blunder by not participating in the 2003 US invasion of Iraq:

Erdogan says Turkey shouldn't repeat mistake it made on Iraq
Mon 08 February 2016
http://news.az/articles/turkey/104970

Without Turkey's direct role in Iraq, the US had to depend on Kurds and Shia Arabs and to placate their interest, the US had to dissolve the Sunni Arab dominated Bath party and the Iraqi Army, who then became a major part of the anti-US-occupation insurgency. These same people then formed AQI and this group eventually morphed into ISIS. If Turkey participated in the 2003 invasion, they could protect Sunni Arab interest by probably preventing the dissolution of Bath party and Iraqi Army, possibly incorporating them into Sunni area protection forces and thus not allow the wholesale ethnic cleansing of Turkmens and Sunni Arabs in many parts of Iraq perpetrated by Kurds and Shia Arabs and just might have prevented this current mess we have today. Of course this is my view of a very hypothetical alternate reality, as we have no way of knowing how this would turn out if Turkey had participated.

I believe Erdogan has recognized this past mistake well and is not going to repeat this mistake in Syria. Question is whether the US is going to allow Turkey to play its proper role in Syria and Iraq, where they can become protector of Sunni Arab interest and thus not leave the field open for Wahabi/Salafi jihadi's to play the role of the protector of Sunni Arabs. I do not have much hope about Obama, but I believe Clinton will be able to take up this challenge and allow Turkey its proper role in both Syria and Iraq to become the protector of Sunni Arab interest in these two countries, where they are currently being marginalized by forces backed by Iran and Russia as well as the US allied Kurds of Northern Iraq and Northern Syria.

What does alliance between nations mean? To me allied countries can disagree on major issues and can point out others mistakes, like the 2003 Iraq invasion actually was (a huge mistake for the US), but once the US decided to invade, as an ally I believe Turkey had no choice but to participate even if it had reservations about this invasion. Kurds in Northern Iraq gained the upper hand from this Turkish mistake and PKK became emboldened, causing much casualties within Turkey using the safe haven in KRG in recent years, as a direct result of this mistake.

Allowing YPG to become the ground forces for anti-ISIS operation of the US in Syria, I believe, was another mistake by Turkey. This should not have been allowed to happen, if necessary Turkey could provide its own ground forces for this, as it is doing now.

Not understanding early on the risk of Wahabi/Salafi infestation of the Syrian rebel opposition forces funded by the Wahabi/Salafi gulf monarchs and wealthy private individuals was another huge mistake.

But unfortunately, Erdogan realized all these mistakes much too late. Lets see how the best can be made of the current situation. At this stage, Turkey I believe must keep its eyes on the ball and work with the US to eliminate ISIS from both Syria and Iraq. Only by making the YPG unnecessary and redundant, it will be possible for Turkey to reduce the US dependence on YPG. Any harsh measures against the wishes of the US will be counter productive and may hurt Turkey's interest later. Turkey must emphasize and make the US understand that the YPG Kurds are not welcome in Sunni Arab areas of Syria and they cannot be a stabilizing force, if they are used to eliminate ISIS and as a result become de facto rulers in Sunni Arab areas, there will be abuses and this will continue to attract jihadi forces to come in and save the local population. Only a Turkey backed non-Wahabi non-Salafi non-jihadi FSA manned by local Sunni Arabs are the real stabilizing option for the US in Syria and the same is true for a similar Turkey backed local force in Iraq. Shia's and Kurds should not be allowed to conquer and expel Sunni Arabs from their home regions in Syria or Iraq, if this happens jihadism will continue as before. Maybe ISIS will be gone, but jihadi's will go underground and continue their suicide bombing and insurgency like before, as the root of the problem remains, which is safety and security for Sunni Arab population in both Syria and Iraq.

Blaming the US only for the entire mess and thinking that the US is a stealth enemy of Turkey just because the US moves had helped the PKK and because Gulen and Hizmet were CIA assets, would be simplistic at best and I believe it will not be in sync with the big picture of how the interest of different parties and nations played out in this theater from 2003 onwards. And both allies should be able to forgive each others mistakes move past them for the greater interest of the region and their friends and allied nations around the world.

I will present 2 more articles as reference for my views above: I would appreciate other posters opinion.

Volume 7, No. 2 – June 2003
STRATEGIC LOCATION, POLITICAL DISLOCATION:
TURKEY, THE UNITED STATES, AND NORTHERN IRAQ
By Bill Park
http://www.rubincenter.org/2003/06/park-2003-06-02/

Turkey after the Iraq War:
Still a U.S. Ally?
Soner Cagaptay and Mark Parris
2003 Weinberg Founders Conference
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/turkey-after-the-iraq-war-still-a-u.s.-ally

 

[Zulkarneyn]

I am a well wisher of Turkey and do not like to see this country making mistakes in foreign policy. I hope to see a strong united Turkey become a great example of a developed and democratic country that other Muslim majority countries can follow.

Like Erdogan, I feel that Turkey made a huge blunder by not participating in the 2003 US invasion of Iraq:

Erdogan says Turkey shouldn't repeat mistake it made on Iraq
Mon 08 February 2016
http://news.az/articles/turkey/104970

Without Turkey's direct role in Iraq, the US had to depend on Kurds and Shia Arabs and to placate their interest, the US had to dissolve the Sunni Arab dominated Bath party and the Iraqi Army, who then became a major part of the anti-US-occupation insurgency. These same people then formed AQI and this group eventually morphed into ISIS. If Turkey participated in the 2003 invasion, they could protect Sunni Arab interest by probably preventing the dissolution of Bath party and Iraqi Army, possibly incorporating them into Sunni area protection forces and thus not allow the wholesale ethnic cleansing of Turkmens and Sunni Arabs in many parts of Iraq perpetrated by Kurds and Shia Arabs and just might have prevented this current mess we have today. Of course this is my view of a very hypothetical alternate reality, as we have no way of knowing how this would turn out if Turkey had participated.

I believe Erdogan has recognized this past mistake well and is not going to repeat this mistake in Syria. Question is whether the US is going to allow Turkey to play its proper role in Syria and Iraq, where they can become protector of Sunni Arab interest and thus not leave the field open for Wahabi/Salafi jihadi's to play the role of the protector of Sunni Arabs. I do not have much hope about Obama, but I believe Clinton will be able to take up this challenge and allow Turkey its proper role in both Syria and Iraq to become the protector of Sunni Arab interest in these two countries, where they are being currently marginalized by forces backed by Iran and Russia as well as the US allied Kurds of Northern Iraq and Northern Syria.

What does alliance between nations mean? To me allied countries can disagree on major issues and can point out others mistakes, like the 2003 Iraq invasion actually was (a huge mistake for the US), but once the US decided to invade, as an ally I believe Turkey had no choice but to participate even if it had reservations about this invasion. Kurds in Northern Iraq gained the upper hand from this Turkish mistake and PKK became emboldened, causing much casualties within Turkey using the safe haven in KRG in recent years, as a direct result of this mistake.

Allowing YPG to become the ground forces for anti-ISIS operation of the US in Syria, I believe, was another mistake by Turkey. This should not have been allowed to happen, if necessary Turkey could provide its own ground forces for this, as it is doing now.

Not understanding early on the risk of Wahabi/Salafi infestation of the Syrian rebel opposition forces funded by the Wahabi/Salafi gulf monarchs and wealthy private individuals was another huge mistake.

But unfortunately, Erdogan realized all these mistakes much too late. Lets see how the best can be made of the current situation. Like before, Turkey I believe must keep its eyes on the ball and work with the US to eliminate ISIS from both Syria and Iraq. Only by making the YPG unnecessary and redundant, it will be possible for Turkey to reduce the US dependence on YPG. Any harsh measures against the wishes of the US will be counter productive and may hurt Turkey's interest later. Turkey must emphasize and make the US understand that the YPG Kurds are not welcome in Sunni Arab areas of Syria and they cannot be a stabilizing force, it will continue attracting jihadi forces. Only a Turkey backed non-Wahabi non-Salafi non-jihadi FSA manned by local Sunni Arabs are the real stabilizing option for the US in Syria and the same is true for a similar Turkey backed local force in Iraq. Shia's and Kurds should not be allowed to conquer and expel Sunni Arabs from their home regions in Syria or Iraq, if this happens jihadism will continue as before. Maybe ISIS will be gone, but jihadi's will go underground and continue their suicide bombing and insurgency like before, as the root of the problem remains, which is safety and security for Sunni Arab population in both Syria and Iraq.

Blaming the US only for the entire mess and thinking that the US is a stealth enemy of Turkey just because the US moves had helped the PKK and because Gulen and Hizmet were CIA assets, would be simplistic at best and I believe it will not be in sync with the big picture of how the interest of different parties and nations played out in this theater from 2003 onwards. And both allies should be able to forgive each others mistakes move past them for the greater interest of the region and their friends and allied nations around the world.

I will present 2 more articles as reference for my views above: I would appreciate other posters opinion.

Volume 7, No. 2 – June 2003
STRATEGIC LOCATION, POLITICAL DISLOCATION:
TURKEY, THE UNITED STATES, AND NORTHERN IRAQ
By Bill Park
http://www.rubincenter.org/2003/06/park-2003-06-02/

Turkey after the Iraq War:
Still a U.S. Ally?
Soner Cagaptay and Mark Parris
2003 Weinberg Founders Conference
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/turkey-after-the-iraq-war-still-a-u.s.-ally

Interesting read. I'll look at it and offer an opinion later, when i have sufficient time at my disposal