Military Coup in China, 2030?

[below_freezing]

2030

Watch the following video: an internal video, was deliberately spread to the network.

看过；顶戴旭。。。

可惜党已经被走资派劫持了，并且已经无法铲除了。。。只有两个办法，要么政治改革，要么被政治改革（军事政变）。2030年都有点晚了。

 

[Vassnti]

Here's the thing. China has a 3 part political system today - Party, State, Military. In the past, especially during the Deng years, it was that the Party led the State and Military. In particular, the military is considered not just a national military, but a PARTY military. It was not always like this of course. In Mao's day, the PLA was considered a national military alone from 1949-1954.

If the Party, State and Military are united, there's no problem. However, what we see today is the Party, State and Military going on different directions due to differing collective interests. It is in the interest of the Party for China to reconcile with the US; however, it may not in the interests of China (the state) and the military to do so. This is just 1 example. More important differences lie in their fundamental views on national interest and political development. General Liang Guanglie, Defense Minister of China, has called for the independence of the military from Party control, which he believes will strengthen the military. Premier Wen Jiabao has called for political reform and increased democracy. Both of these are DIRECT threats to the CPC, and the CPC (or more precisely, the clique that has hijacked the CPC) will not accept it.

If they make changes too slowly though, or refuse to budge, then there are things that the state and military can do. The state controls the police and the military, well, is the military. The CPC on the other hand, alone, has no physical power; the entire CMC is made up of generals, excluding Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping. If political reform is too slow, or the interests of the military is threatened by the CPC, then it is very possible for a military coup to occur which would remove the civilians of the CPC from power, in the style of Gorbachev and Yeltsin.

Then, hopefully, the PRC survives as an entity, suffers 1-2 years of low economic growth, and gets back on its feet. In the worst case scenario we break up like the Soviet Union and become enslaved by the West.

Far better said than the wall of google translate you started the thread with.

I would have put it in simper terms than a three way split, a two way split between those with the money and those with the guns. China is becoming a rich country or more to the point "some" in China are becoming very wealthy.

The latest WLA report says the total consumption of luxury goods in China last year was $10.7 billion, or 25 percent of the world total. Also, China is expected to surpass Japan as the top luxury goods consuming country in 2012.

At least from the outside there seems to be an increasing dichotomy between the market and military china one loves the US, Europe and growing rich off them, the other increasingly feeling a lack of respect both at home and from other countries as a modern powerfull military.

The new carrier is a clasic example one side saying dont worry its just a big reasearch vessel nothing to worry about. The other saying touch our islands and we can now bomb the crap out of you.

While every ones lives are getting better i cant imagine the pro dollar crowd will loose out, however China and the world are being sold the golden dragon tale that China's markets can rise forever they forget that even the empire of heaven can fall.
If that market correction comes as a crash i can imagine it would be very easy for the army to "step in" to maintain order during the crisis and very hard for them to step out again.

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

LOL @ these chinese members wanting US to fail and collapse. GET REAL! You fake extremists probably live in the US or some other democratic country

are you try to say us or U.S.? this is bit confusing.

 

[below_freezing]

Far better said than the wall of google translate you started the thread with.

I would have put it in simper terms than a three way split, a two way split between those with the money and those with the guns. China is becoming a rich country or more to the point "some" in China are becoming very wealthy.



At least from the outside there seems to be an increasing dichotomy between the market and military china one loves the US, Europe and growing rich off them, the other increasingly feeling a lack of respect both at home and from other countries as a modern powerfull military.

The new carrier is a clasic example one side saying dont worry its just a big reasearch vessel nothing to worry about. The other saying touch our islands and we can now bomb the crap out of you.

While every ones lives are getting better i cant imagine the pro dollar crowd will loose out, however China and the world are being sold the golden dragon tale that China's markets can rise forever they forget that even the empire of heaven can fall.
If that market correction comes as a crash i can imagine it would be very easy for the army to "step in" to maintain order during the crisis and very hard for them to step out again.

Basically right but you forget the populace - those who MAKE the guns.

Its not just between those with money and those with guns.

Its between those with money, those with guns, and the general population which supports both with their taxes (party) and their industries (army). Currently, its more like a 2v1. The CPC, or the clique that has hijacked the CPC (since only 6 million/80 million of CPC members are rich; the rest are just regular people) has basically gotten fat off the economic boom in the past 30 years. The deal to the population was: support us, and you might become as rich as us, just don't rock the boat. The deal to the military was: support us, and we'll give you the toys you need to beat the US and make China respected again.

However, the clique that has hijacked the CPC has made this impossible. I didn't post that red Mao poster for no reason. It says:

"If the CPC becomes a party of capitalists, if it becomes a fake party of traitors, then it is no longer communism. This CPC would be far worse and far more cruel than the actual capitalists; they would become a party of fascists, and it is the duty of the people to destroy and smash such a traitorous CPC" - Mao Zedong

What we have today is the CPC becoming exactly what Mao didn't want it to be.

Deng was a military dictator. He used the military to crush a peaceful protest by students, something that MAO NEVER DID. He set up a complicated command system to make sure that the military would find it very difficult to overthrow him, as he himself overthrew President Hua Guofeng in a bloodless military coup. The downside, of course, compared to the sleek national military of Mao, was inefficient command, which caused the military that stomped USA and India to lose unacceptable numbers of soldiers to tiny Vietnam.

Just ask yourself: Why? Why is it that even as our military gears up to fight the US, Japan, etc. the CPC is still going with a begging bowl to the US? Why is it that we are a powerful nuclear nation, we still feel like we're on our knees? Why do we send bags of money and our leaders relatives to the US, even as General Zhu Chenghu said bluntly "We will nuke the United States if it attacks China."

Currently, the nation, representing the people, and the military, are beginning to have diverging interests with the CPC. The CPC's power clique is starting to realize this; they've started shipping their children out of the country to avoid prosecution. However, like you said, it won't show at first. Currently, the battles are being waged in the newspapers and in the halls of Congress. There have been 5 (yes, 5) articles in the past year reminding people how the CPC should always hold leadership over the military. Why would they need to say this, unless this was being challenged? Right now, the country is running more or less smoothly. In a crisis, such as a major riot over inflation, the CPC will find it very hard to order the military to crack down again.

The PLA of today, is not the PLA of 1989. The CPC of today, is also not the CPC of 1989. And the people of today are not the people of 1989.

The military, as you said, will definitely have to step in. However, I think by now they know that they will need to return power to civilians to maintain stability.

I am not against the CPC. I am against the clique that hijacked the CPC. But today this clique is indistinguishable. My cousin is a CPC member, he is poor, and he has no power; the CPC still takes his party fees every month though. He hates the government more than anyone. This is not the CPC of Mao Zedong anymore. The CPC has become a mask for, as Mao said, "fascists and capitalists".

 

[Twain Shakespeare]

Finally, an article that made sense. well, below freezing made sense, but he's also thanked you, Vassnti, and apologies to anyone who made sense if one knew what was being talked about. I don't, but I am learning things.

 

[Vassnti]

Finally, an article that made sense. well, below freezing made sense, but he's also thanked you, Vassnti, and apologies to anyone who made sense if one knew what was being talked about. I don't, but I am learning things.

the wisest man is one who knows he has much to learn

 

[below_freezing]

The real test will be to see if the CPC can survive this decade.

if we don't suffer a crisis in the next 10 years, we "win" - our next gen ICBMs, carriers and 5th gen planes are mass produced to deter the US from just solving things militarily, the RMB gradually eclipses the USD just as peak oil hits, China's nuclear plants and solar plants just come online at the same time the US is still stuck on oil, the high speed rail network is finished, and the US begins to suffer from the accumulated debt just as it can no longer pay it off by printing dollars. At that point, the US will have been changed demographically; White become a minority in most southern states, a 2 tier society forms, and inequality skyrockets. Hyperinflation will hit the US when it can no longer pay the interests on the debt (when no one will lend it money), riots break out, and the US breaks apart like the Soviet Union by 2025.

if we do suffer a crisis in the next 10 years though, there is a strong chance WE will be the ones to break up like the Soviet Union...

 

[Vassnti]

Basically right but you forget the populace - those who MAKE the guns.

Its not just between those with money and those with guns.

Its between those with money, those with guns, and the general population which supports both with their taxes (party) and their industries (army). Currently, its more like a 2v1. The CPC, or the clique that has hijacked the CPC (since only 6 million/80 million of CPC members are rich; the rest are just regular people) has basically gotten fat off the economic boom in the past 30 years. The deal to the population was: support us, and you might become as rich as us, just don't rock the boat. The deal to the military was: support us, and we'll give you the toys you need to beat the US and make China respected again.

Just ask yourself: Why? Why is it that even as our military gears up to fight the US, Japan, etc. the CPC is still going with a begging bowl to the US? Why is it that we are a powerful nuclear nation, we still feel like we're on our knees? Why do we send bags of money and our leaders relatives to the US, even as General Zhu Chenghu said bluntly "We will nuke the United States if it attacks China."

".

Two things firstly i think the days of a peoples revolution are gone.
The power difference between those that make the guns and those that have the guns is simply to great. 1000 pesants with the fire of revolution in their heart and the light of a new China in their eyes can take on an army check point with farming impliments when the army has a few bolt action rifles. When that army check point has machineguns automatic rifles and an apc with a 30mm cannon its suicide.

In Eygpt the army joined the people in Libya Nato joined the rebels in Syria the goverment sits off shore with gun boats and shells any one who disagrees. The people can only rise up if one side or the other lets them.

The other point is i dont understand why you feel "the CPC is still going with a begging bowl to the US" it seems at least politically its the other way arround. On the military level less so but the noises are changing and there is much more talk of conflict and more of joint exercises and cooperation. China has done more in a short time than any other nation and it is still rising i havent noticed the leaders of China bending a knee to any one of late, except in Chinese military press.

How wide spread is the feeling that China is not respected outside the military?

 

[Twain Shakespeare]

Basically right but you forget the populace - those who MAKE the guns.

Its not just between those with money and those with guns.

Its between those with money, those with guns, and the general population which supports both with their taxes (party) and their industries (army). Currently, its more like a 2v1. The CPC, or the clique that has hijacked the CPC (since only 6 million/80 million of CPC members are rich; the rest are just regular people) has basically gotten fat off the economic boom in the past 30 years. The deal to the population was: support us, and you might become as rich as us, just don't rock the boat. The deal to the military was: support us, and we'll give you the toys you need to beat the US and make China respected again.

However, the clique that has hijacked the CPC has made this impossible. I didn't post that red Mao poster for no reason. It says:

"If the CPC becomes a party of capitalists, if it becomes a fake party of traitors, then it is no longer communism. This CPC would be far worse and far more cruel than the actual capitalists; they would become a party of fascists, and it is the duty of the people to destroy and smash such a traitorous CPC" - Mao Zedong

What we have today is the CPC becoming exactly what Mao didn't want it to be.

Deng was a military dictator. He used the military to crush a peaceful protest by students, something that MAO NEVER DID. He set up a complicated command system to make sure that the military would find it very difficult to overthrow him, as he himself overthrew President Hua Guofeng in a bloodless military coup. The downside, of course, compared to the sleek national military of Mao, was inefficient command, which caused the military that stomped USA and India to lose unacceptable numbers of soldiers to tiny Vietnam.

Just ask yourself: Why? Why is it that even as our military gears up to fight the US, Japan, etc. the CPC is still going with a begging bowl to the US? Why is it that we are a powerful nuclear nation, we still feel like we're on our knees? Why do we send bags of money and our leaders relatives to the US, even as General Zhu Chenghu said bluntly "We will nuke the United States if it attacks China."

Currently, the nation, representing the people, and the military, are beginning to have diverging interests with the CPC. The CPC's power clique is starting to realize this; they've started shipping their children out of the country to avoid prosecution. However, like you said, it won't show at first. Currently, the battles are being waged in the newspapers and in the halls of Congress. There have been 5 (yes, 5) articles in the past year reminding people how the CPC should always hold leadership over the military. Why would they need to say this, unless this was being challenged? Right now, the country is running more or less smoothly. In a crisis, such as a major riot over inflation, the CPC will find it very hard to order the military to crack down again.

The PLA of today, is not the PLA of 1989. The CPC of today, is also not the CPC of 1989. And the people of today are not the people of 1989.

The military, as you said, will definitely have to step in. However, I think by now they know that they will need to return power to civilians to maintain stability.

I am not against the CPC. I am against the clique that hijacked the CPC. But today this clique is indistinguishable. My cousin is a CPC member, he is poor, and he has no power; the CPC still takes his party fees every month though. He hates the government more than anyone. This is not the CPC of Mao Zedong anymore. The CPC has become a mask for, as Mao said, "fascists and capitalists".

Thank you for a Maoist perspective on the last years of Chinese history. I now understand the premise of this thread.
Understanding Chinese culture is difficult from the West for many reasons, but, aside from shady maneuvers by Chang Kai-Shek, I can not recall anything in Chinese history resembling the military coups, or juntos, of the West.
Be wary. Even the liberal and progressive coups end up under the like of Ghaddafy. More likely, tho, is the kleptocrats of China finding a Franco, or a general who would like to live in the Forbidden City. Or is China truly over that?

By the way, if you have any part in the “dismemberment of the United States,” I beg you to dismember Texas as well. Its bad enough being in Texas when there are 49 other States. Being in Texas as part of the Confederate States or a Lone Star Republic would be unbearable, and a worse mistake than when Napoleon let Prussia survive. Bust it up. Give the East to Juneteenth Republic, The Valley to Tejas,, the West to Atzlan, and the north to the Comanches. Make the middle a Reservation for Klansmen.

 

[below_freezing]

Two things firstly i think the days of a peoples revolution are gone.
The power difference between those that make the guns and those that have the guns is simply to great. 1000 pesants with the fire of revolution in their heart and the light of a new China in their eyes can take on an army check point with farming impliments when the army has a few bolt action rifles. When that army check point has machineguns automatic rifles and an apc with a 30mm cannon its suicide.

In Eygpt the army joined the people in Libya Nato joined the rebels in Syria the goverment sits off shore with gun boats and shells any one who disagrees. The people can only rise up if one side or the other lets them.

The other point is i dont understand why you feel "the CPC is still going with a begging bowl to the US" it seems at least politically its the other way arround. On the military level less so but the noises are changing and there is much more talk of conflict and more of joint exercises and cooperation. China has done more in a short time than any other nation and it is still rising i havent noticed the leaders of China bending a knee to any one of late, except in Chinese military press.

How wide spread is the feeling that China is not respected outside the military?

That's what I'm saying: An actual armed revolution won't succeed just as it wouldn't have in the Soviet Union. Not only would the army put it down, the people wouldn't support it. The Soviet Red Army was the 2nd most powerful military of its time, and the PLA today is the 2nd most powerful military of our time. Civilians have no hope against this. They don't even have hope against the likes of Egypt, like you said.

The army is one of the most populist organizations in China, enjoys vast popular support, and it knows it. Just remember Sichuan earthquake vs. Hurricane Katrina; it was the US army that carried guns and rode APCs into the city with orders to shoot, while the PLA carried only shovels. If there is a coup, the army expects the people to be on its side.

The CMC currently is split between political appointees and professional soldiers. Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping are clearly not soldiers. But General Xu Caihou (former Secretariat member) and Li Jinian (political commissar) are also not soldiers. All the rest are professional soldiers who rose through the ranks.

Here's what I mean CPC is going with a begging bowl to the US: they are desperate for the US to not devaluate. Why? Because I suspect many of the Tbonds have been embezzled by CPC members as private property, rather than as national property. If it was NATIONAL property, there is no reason for them to be afraid of a devaluation; it would hurt China as a whole but the US will be hit harder, so for the NATION, there's no problem. But for any individual shareholder... the devaluation hurts big time.

Instead, what I'm seeing here is that SAFE has been hijacked by a small clique of CPC members who are heavily invested in the US through their relatives and through their savings in US Tbonds. If true, this would be the GREATEST corruption scandal in history that makes Indians and Africans look like childs play.

Twain: Sorry man we're not the ones that are going to dismember the US. I'm not joking; the US has the serious possibility of breaking up like the Soviet Union due to demographics and economics - the exact same reason the USSR broke up. You might be stuck in independent Texas.

I think China is going to be over that within the next 10 years, which is why I say that the battle of who wins in the 21st century is largely going to be decided on whether China survives the next 10 years without a major crisis.

 

[Sonyuke_Songpaisan]

Any change will be appreciated by me

 

[below_freezing]

Any change will be appreciated by me

This ain't a joke. Ai Weiwei, Liu Xiaobo and the other white man boot lickers would become Saddam Husseins of China and far worse than the CPC.

Its not likely a non-CPC member will rise up actually. Yeltsin and Putin were both hardcore Soviet Communist Party members who ended up amassing huge personal fortunes. The Western worshipping Russians were bitterly disappointed when they see that other than irreplacable gas and oil, their biggest exports have been to Swiss Banks; Putin now has something like 60 billion USD in Swiss Banks.

 

[Spring Onion]

We don't need to dismember the US, we just need to survive until demographic pressures and the fall of the USD seal the US's fate. If the US breaks up like the Soviet Union before China does, then we've won. Likewise, if China breaks up like the Soviet Union before the US does, then the US wins and we'll be enslaved (worse than we are now).

That is what China is currently doing peacefully so any coup or any stupidity at this moment is uncalled for

 

[below_freezing]

That is what China is currently doing peacefully so any coup or any stupidity at this moment is uncalled for

You don't choose coups, coups choose you. Same for revolutions and war.

 

[Twain Shakespeare]

That's what I'm saying: An actual armed revolution won't succeed just as it wouldn't have in the Soviet Union. Not only would the army put it down, the people wouldn't support it. The Soviet Red Army was the 2nd most powerful military of its time, and the PLA today is the 2nd most powerful military of our time. Civilians have no hope against this. They don't even have hope against the likes of Egypt, like you said.

The army is one of the most populist organizations in China, enjoys vast popular support, and it knows it. Just remember Sichuan earthquake vs. Hurricane Katrina; it was the US army that carried guns and rode APCs into the city with orders to shoot, while the PLA carried only shovels. If there is a coup, the army expects the people to be on its side.

The CMC currently is split between political appointees and professional soldiers. Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping are clearly not soldiers. But General Xu Caihou (former Secretariat member) and Li Jinian (political commissar) are also not soldiers. All the rest are professional soldiers who rose through the ranks.

Here's what I mean CPC is going with a begging bowl to the US: they are desperate for the US to not devaluate. Why? Because I suspect many of the Tbonds have been embezzled by CPC members as private property, rather than as national property. If it was NATIONAL property, there is no reason for them to be afraid of a devaluation; it would hurt China as a whole but the US will be hit harder, so for the NATION, there's no problem. But for any individual shareholder... the devaluation hurts big time.

Instead, what I'm seeing here is that SAFE has been hijacked by a small clique of CPC members who are heavily invested in the US through their relatives and through their savings in US Tbonds. If true, this would be the GREATEST corruption scandal in history that makes Indians and Africans look like childs play.

Twain: Sorry man we're not the ones that are going to dismember the US. I'm not joking; the US has the serious possibility of breaking up like the Soviet Union due to demographics and economics - the exact same reason the USSR broke up. You might be stuck in independent Texas.

I think China is going to be over that within the next 10 years, which is why I say that the battle of who wins in the 21st century is largely going to be decided on whether China survives the next 10 years without a major crisis.

Daniel Moynihan called the Soviet the “last of the 19th century Empires” ignoring the US subjugation of half of Mexico, the South, Hawaii, etc. The US is more fragile than it looks, but if it falls apart, or dismembers itself, the method used will probably surprise me more than the Arab Spring. But I fear an independent Texas would be almost as big a threat to world peace as the US is, perhaps bigger, since it would lack restraints.

China, tho, is something older than a 19th century empire. At two thousand years, Han China is the oldest nation state on earth, and was, from the time of Marco Polo to the Age of Revolution, the model Western States were emulating. The loss of Turkestan, Tibet, Mongolia, and Manchuria would not change that, anymore than the American Indian Reservations, New Mexico, Alaska, and Vermont succeeding would destroy the US, or the loss of the Near Abroad destroyed Russia.

I don't think its possible that the Cantonese will decide they are not Han, although ethnic cleansing between Hakka and Punti is a distant possibility. What is is left, an independent Szechuan?

Suddenly I remember the Three Kingdoms, and I guess I should shut my mouth. But I am heartened by the thought that good manners are more central to Master Kung than they were to any Western Sage or Prophet. Peace.