Military Coup in China, 2030?

[below_freezing]

For what reason do you think there will be a military coup?
The only one I can think out is PLA want to overthrow CCP.

there was a military coup in the soviet union as well.

when weak leaders appear, and go against the national interest, coups happen.

it is not inevitable, but if things continue at this rate, it is likely to occur.

currently we are in the decade of instability, the 10 years it usually takes for fast growing economies to go from 3000 USD/capita to 10000+ USD/capita which is a time of massive demographic, economic, social and political instability. if the government is going to collapse, this is the time it is most likely to collapse.

the Soviet Union collapsed at 5000 USD/capita.
South Korea democratized at 6000 USD/capita.
the military in Argentina overthrew the government at ~6000 USD/capita in 1976 (last avaliable date 1980, 7000 USD)
Thailand suffered repeated military coups near 4000 USD/capita.
South Africa's white government collapsed at 3700 USD/capita.

We've passed South Africa of 1995.
We're passing the former USSR and Thailand in 2011.
We're going to pass South Korea of 1993 and Argentina of 1976 in 2013
Even after that, we're still not safe. It'll take 2016 at the fastest to get to the 10000 USD safe zone.

 

[no_name]

Hopefully no military coup please.

Once the cat is out of the bag it's not gonna bo back in.

A military government is not just about the 'boss', there will be a whole interest group behind it that eventually even the boss will have to compromise. They too will get corrupt, and because they are THE military, it would be corruption beyond any.

Military just need to mind military matters.

 

[Thomas]

It's amazing how many Chinese nationalists dream of waging war agianst America. It is going to be a nightmare scenario for the world if they ever come to power.

 

[faithfulguy]

no i meant that specific reason wont provoke a military coup.

military coups happen regardless what the law says. did the CCCP commanding the soviet army stop the USSR from shattering like glass in a coup?

all we can hope for is the US shattering before we do, so no one can take advantage of our weakness and enslave us.

Its not likely that US is going to shatter into many pieces in the near future. But as you states, that possibility is higher in China. US is an advance country with high per capita income. China is still a growing country with a PLA that may not listen to the civilian government, especially if the civilian leader is weak.

 

[below_freezing]

Hopefully no military coup please.

Once the cat is out of the bag it's not gonna bo back in.

A military government is not just about the 'boss', there will be a whole interest group behind it that eventually even the boss will have to compromise. They too will get corrupt, and because they are THE military, it would be corruption beyond any.

Military just need to mind military matters.

unfortunately the current system is very bad for suppressing military uprisings. the entire CMC has only 2 civilians on it (Hu and Xi), and out of 9 generals, only 2 are political commissars. the military is a very closed system.

the CMC, though nominally under the command of the NPC, does not draft NPC work reports (nor does it draft CPC Convetion reports actually). it just takes the money. No one knows what it actually does.

 

[S10]

It's amazing how many Chinese nationalists dream of waging war agianst America. It is going to be a nightmare scenario for the world if they ever come to power.

In United States you have rednecks gloating about turning other countries into parking lots. This is the Chinese equivalent, sometimes with a racial twist.

 

[below_freezing]

In United States you have rednecks gloating about turning other countries into parking lots. This is the Chinese equivalent, sometimes with a racial twist.

if you were a white american, would you not be a redneck? the redneck KKK racists are only looking out for the interests of white Americans so their actions are completely understandable.

 

[S10]

if you were a white american, would you not be a redneck? the redneck KKK racists are only looking out for the interests of white Americans so their actions are completely understandable.

In short, no.

 

[UKBengali]

Its not likely that US is going to shatter into many pieces in the near future. But as you states, that possibility is higher in China. US is an advance country with high per capita income. China is still a growing country with a PLA that may not listen to the civilian government, especially if the civilian leader is weak.

China is 92% Han Chinese. Apart from Tibet and Xinjiang, China will always stay together no matter how bad it gets.

 

[ephone]

China is definitely not interested in waging war against America but it is vice versa.

U.S. keeps sending its fleet and spy planes around China and always takes China as the next target for military operations.

So China has to build up herself stronger and makes sure she can defend herself if the war really happens.

U.S.'s hypocrisy can play on any other countries it wants but not China. We do not take those U.S. bullshxts.

About those nationalists members, well, U.S. has a lot of hawks too. Our hawks are way smaller than yours.

It's amazing how many Chinese nationalists dream of waging war agianst America. It is going to be a nightmare scenario for the world if they ever come to power.

 

[DADY]

dont know if you need a coup. China is moving in a very right wing direction, which is what america, the west, and the greedy hyenas around the world want. taiwanese are infiltrating many aspects of mainland society, and corrupting them with mental sickness. although you never know. nothing is ever enough for the capitalist roaders. theyve been known to overthrow even their own pupet regimes, such as thaksin, and mubarek. the Chinese govt better wake up fast and start educating its people. the Chinese public are not educated enough about politics, and neither are communist members.